It’s that time of year again, as Hollywood’s finest find themselves, with alarming regularity, donning outfits that cost more than your house and jewellery worth more than you will earn in a lifetime. But awards season is all building to one supreme event, the Empire Awards Oscars on February 26. Ahead of that milestone, we assess the chances of each nominee in the major categories, and see who’s looking good ahead of the big night…
Why It Will Win
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg) All the stars are aligned in its favour and it’s won just about every award going so far. If there were such a thing as a sure thing in the Best Picture category, this would be it. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has matching nominations for Editing, Directing and Screenplay – which, statistically, most Best Picture winners can boast. %20Will%20all%20the%20hype%20have%20a%20backlash%20among%20Oscar%20voters%20keen%20to%20show%20that%20they%E2%80%99re%20not%20that%20predictable%20after%20all?+Probably+not%2C+but+it%E2%80%99s+possible%21+%28see%3A+Crash=&auto=format&w=1440&q=80)
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg) It’s a bit foreign. Foreign films generally don’t win Best Picture. The only foreign language films to win Best Picture are The Godfather Part II, The Last Emperor and Slumdog Millionaire – and all of those were made by English-speaking directors and featured English-language sections. Of course, this one’s pretty much silent so that may not apply. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 While Hollywood stories are often nominated, they don’t often win.  The essential ingredients are there: big star, moving performance, dysfunctional family drama, name director, adapted from a well-regarded book. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has the necessary matching nominations for Directing, Editing and Screenplay, always a good sign. 
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg) While universally liked, it’s perhaps not so universally adored as The Artist. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 The Oscars forerunners generally went for The Artist over The Descendants; while that’s no guarantee for the big show, it’s not a good sign.  Big-name, Oscar-winning stars. A director who’s been Best Picture-nominated for 75 per cent of the films he’s ever made. And Max von Sydow, one of the most respected men on the planet. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It’s based on a well-received book by a generally well-regarded author, which has a feelgood story against a tragic background. What could be Oscarier? Heck, the main character is even *called *Oskar.  The reviews have been harsh, and it’s gone home empty-handed at every ceremony so far. The last time a film with less than 75 per cent on Rotten Tomatoes won Best Picture was 1994 – Forrest Gump with 71 – and this one has under 50 per cent. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 It doesn’t have nominations for directing, editing or screenplay. %20It's%20a%20feelgood%20story%20about%20a%20feelbad%20time,%20always%20a%20winner%20for%20the%20Academy,%20and%20it%20was%20a%20big%20box-office%20success%20(relatively?auto=format&w=1440&q=80)
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg) It was adapted from a hugely popular book, and deals with one of the important bits of history in a novel way. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has lots of Acting nominations. Given that actors comprise the bulk of Oscar voters, films with room for acting plaudits tend to do well in Best Picture too.  No Directing, Editing or Screenplay awards. A very bad sign. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 It’s female led: only two female-led films have won in the last 20 years. %20It%20harks%20back%20to%20Hollywood%E2%80%99s%20roots%20while%20also%20looking%20ahead%20to%20its%20future%20in%20terms%20of%20its%20technical%20expertise.%20It%20has%20a%20bit%20with%20a%20dog,%20which%20Shakespeare%20In%20Love%20(and%20The%20Artist?auto=format&w=1440&q=80)
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg) It's from a name director, based on a beloved book and received almost universally favourable reviews. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has those all-important Editing, Directing and Screenplay awards. %20It%E2%80%99s%20a%20kids%20film,%20at%20least%20ostensibly.%20Know%20the%20last%20kids%20film%20to%20win%20Best%20Picture?+%28Arguably+%E2%80%93+if+it+counts+as+a+kid%E2%80%99s+film=&auto=format&w=1440&q=80)
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg) It hasn’t had nearly the buzz of either The Artist or The Descendants, and may have hit screens a trifle too early for maximum impact. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 Scorsese has his Oscar for The Departed now, so there’s no pressing urge to make up for years of neglect anymore.  Woody Allen’s hasn't won Best Picture since 1978 - surely it's time. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has a Best Director and Best Screenplay nomination to match, which is a good sign. %20Woody%20Allen%E2%80%99s%20won%20Best%20Director%20once%20and%20Best%20Screenplay%20twice,%20and%20Annie%20Hall%20won%20Best%20Picture%20(strictly,%20he%20wasn't%20a%20producer%20so%20didn't%20share%20that?auto=format&w=1440&q=80)
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg) The film has no Best Editing nomination, which every Best Picture winner since Ordinary People in 1981 has had. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 It’s more-or-less a comedy! Comedies don’t win Best Picture.  Great performances, a great script and a clever-clever approach to a well-known topic make this a strong Oscar contender. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing nominations, a good omen.  It doesn’t have a Best Director nomination, which augurs badly for its chances of winning. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 It hasn’t got any real heat behind it going into the big finale.  It’s one of the most gorgeous, original, beautiful films of the year, from an acknowledged master of the craft. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 It has a Best Director nomination to match for Terrence Malick, and a nod for its astonishing cinematography from Emmanuel Lubezki.  There’s no Editing or Screenplay nomination, which are bad signs. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 Ain’t no way that a film this obscure is winning Best Picture.  It’s a war movie with epic sweep, bags of emotion and some of the most moving moments you’ll ever see. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarwin.jpg%29 Based on a well-respected book and smash-hit stage play, and directed by Steven Spielberg, it has pedigree to die for.  It doesn’t have those all-important nominations for Directing, Editing or Screenplay to match its Best Picture nod, statistically placing its chances at almost nil. ![]%28http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarloss.jpg%29 The Academy doesn’t give Spielberg the big prize unless he gives them *no* alternative %28Schindler’s List%29. ![