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WHY IT WILL WIN None-more-serious subject matter, well-respected literary source, good British director and quality cast, including woman-of-the-hour Kate Winslet. It's also got the proven Oscar effectiveness of the Harvey Weinstein machine behind it (he's championed an awards-season release for months) and the opening for a tribute to now-deceased producers Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack
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WHY IT WON'T WIN The subject matter is a big more complex and difficult than, say, Schindler's List, with an argument to be made that the film is actually sympathetic to a Nazi and/or a paedophile. The reviews have been mixed, Winslet aside, and it's also a relatively small contender, which doesn't usually help. Also, there's a lot of sex - which doesn't play well with the older, more conservative voters.
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