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| Milk |
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WHY IT WILL WIN Short months after California voted Proposition 8 into law, banning gay marriage, gay rights are at the forefront of people's minds, and Van Sant's film may strike a chord with voters as a result. Many voters will also remember Milk's exploits, and his tragic assassination, which helps, while Sean Penn's performance is, as ever, gripping stuff.
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WHY IT WON'T WIN California voted for Proposition 8, which shows that the conservatives are still out there, and remember that this is the same Academy that didn't vote for Brokeback Mountain, so it would be a stretch to say that they're gay-friendly. It could also be a case where Penn's performance overshadows and unbalances the rest of the film, leaving the greater achievement out in the cold.
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