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| Frost/Nixon |
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WHY IT WILL WIN It's based on a searingly good stage play, and has such a gripping central conflict that you can hear a pin drop even in the most packed cinema come the last act. The lead performers who made the roles their own over 400-odd stage shows, Michael Sheen and Frank Langella, do predictably brilliant jobs with their roles, and the supporting cast is filled out with quality names.
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WHY IT WON'T WIN Voters savvy enough to have seen the play may realise that, working with such material, the film hasn't given much added value. The fact that Sheen and Langella are relatively unstarry names could hurt their case, and it's possible that die-hard Nixon fans / haters will be turned off by the film's relatively even-handed approach. The film may also be hurt by the perception that Howard's last Best Picture winner, A Beautiful Mind, didn't really deserve to win.
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