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| Gus Van Sant, Milk |
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WHY HE WILL WIN A previous nominee for Good Will Hunting, Van Sant may be overdue a win - after all, between then and now he's won the Palme d'Or too. Milk is a socially important film, which the Academy often goes for, and he may get bonus points for his very faithful recreation of a time still within living memory for many voters.
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WHY HE WON'T WIN His one for them / one for me approach to filmmaking, in which he veers between experimental films and more mainstream fare, means that he's further outside the Academy's consciousness than some of his rivals. And the film's perhaps not quite as much of directorial achievement as the more technically complex Benjamin Button or the sprawling joy of Slumdog Millionaire.
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