Register  |   Log In  |  
Sign up to our weekly newsletter    
Search   
Empire Magazine and iPad
Follow Me on Pinterest YouTube Tumblr
Empire
Trending On Empire
The Big 2015 Movie Preview
The 50 Best Films Of 2014
Review Of The Year 2014
Subscribe To Empire!
Get 12 issues from just £25
Must-Have Movie Collectibles
Bid on some classic memorabilia
Movie News

LATEST HEADLINES
TODAY
New Avengers: Age Of Ultron TV Spot
'You've meddled with something you don't understand...'
Karl Urban Joins Pete's Dragon Remake
He's replacing Michael C. Hall
Meet The New Jurassic World Dino
Indominus Rex, what big teeth you have...
John Wick Duo Wanted To Direct Cowboy Ninja Viking
David Leitch and Chad Stahelski may corral Chris Pratt
Terminator Genisys Super Bowl Spot Online
Watch out for back-flipping buses...
First Look At The Enfield Haunting
Who you gonna Spall?
More Movie News

RELATED NEWS
28 October 2013
Vincenzo Natali Still Hopeful For Neuromancer
'It seems to be indomitable...'
More Movie News

RELATED REVIEWS
Splice (2010)
Empire Star Rating
Weird Science
Empire Star Rating
More new cinemas releases
DVD & Blu-ray releases

Scientists Learn To Predict A Hit
Researchers discover box office equation

20 June 2012  |  Written by Owen Williams  |  Source: Institute of Physics

submit to reddit

Scientists Learn To Predict A Hit
Empire’s friends at the Institute of Physics (we have friends everywhere) have tipped us off to some new research by Japanese physicists at Tottori University, who have come up with a set of mathematical models that seem to accurately predict blockbuster box office success (or failure). Never mind The Dark Knight Rises; this morning we bring you The Hit Phenomenon: A Mathematical Model Of Human Dynamics Interactions As A Stochastic Process.
 
The research, published in the IoP and German Physical Society’s New Journal of Physics, comes up with a way of forecasting how many people will go to see a film, based on monitoring advertising data and word-of-mouth in the form of online blogs and social networking sites. The scientists’ model was originally designed to predict how word-of-mouth communication spread over social networks. They applied it to conversations about movies in particular, and found that when they overlapped their predictions with the actual revenue of the films they focused on, the numbers were very similar.
 
Interestingly, but perhaps not surprisingly, the findings seem to demonstrate that the web has the power, and that the size of a studio’s marketing spend doesn’t much correlate to a movie’s level of hit-ness. The timing of advertising campaigns turns out to be far more important than their size.
 
It’s all weirdly like Issac Asimov’s psychohistory system of predicting future human behaviour, but limited to whether people are going to watch Pirates of the Caribbean. Maybe forecasts of intergalactic warfare and migration come later. For those who can tell their WOM from their SNS and their exogenous factors from their coefficients, the research is here (with a handy video abstract). Executives behind future John Carters and Green Lanterns are already reaching for their calculators.

Have Your Say
To comment on this, and all articles, register for free or login now.

New Trailer For Salute Online
Black Power at the Olympics
Hugh Laurie May Be Robocop's Villain
UPDATE: He's no longer in talks


CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS
Joaquin Phoenix Talks Inherent Vice
Plus co-stars Josh Brolin and Katherine Waterston

Stephen Daldry Talks Trash
The Billy Elliot man on his Rio carnival and training as a clown

Colin Firth And Taron Egerton Talk Kingsman: The Secret Service
Plus Samuel L. Jackson on bad-guy duties

A Brief History Of The Ring
Everything you need to know about the J-horror reboot

The X-Men TV Series: 10 Possible Plotlines
Mutants on a budget? We suggest some ideas for Fox’s new franchise extension

10 Kid-Friendly Marvel Comics That Could Be The Next Big Hero 6
Walt Disney Animation Studios have a lot to play with elsewhere in the Marvelverse

20 Sitcom Spin-Offs That Were Doomed To Fail
From Joey to Ally and back again…

Subscribe to Empire magazine
Get 12 Issues Of Empire For Only £25!

Get exclusive subscriber-only covers each month!

Subscribe today

Subscribe to Empire iPad edition
Get The Empire iPad Edition Today

Subscribe and save maney on annual digital subscription

Subscribe today
Buy single issues

Get 12 issues of Empire for just £25!
Get exclusive subscriber-only covers each month Subscribe today!
Empire's Film Studies 101 Series
Everything you ever wanted to know about filmmaking but were afraid to ask...
The Empire iPad Edition
With exclusive extras, interactive features, trailers and much more! Download now
Home  |  News  |  Blogs  |  Reviews  |  Future Films  |  Features  |  Interviews  |  Images  |  Competitions  |  Forum  |  iPad  |  Podcast  |  Magazine Contact Us  |  Empire FAQ  |  Subscribe To Empire  |  Register
© Bauer Consumer Media Ltd  |  Legal Info  |  Editorial Complaints  |  Privacy Policy  |  Bauer Entertainment Network
Bauer Consumer Media Ltd (company number 01176085 and registered address 1 Lincoln Court, Lincoln Road, Peterborough, England PE1 2RF)