So far during awards season, The Fighter's Melissa Leo has had it all her own way - but will she make the full set at the Oscars? Her cast mate, Amy Adams, might have something to say about that, and one should never discount the enormous hair or astonishing dress sense of Helena Bonham Carter. And in the less-well-known-but-at-least-as-good corner, we have Jackie Weaver's towering performance in Animal Kingdom and teenage titan Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. Who'll take home the prize? We assess the probabilities...
Why She Will Win
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarbulletgreen.gif)She's been nominated in this category twice before, for her sunny turn in Junebug and her more worried performance in Doubt. Will it be third time lucky?
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarbulletred.gif)The fact that co-star Melissa Leo is also nominated may mean that The Fighter votes get split between the two. It was Leo who won the Screen Actors Guild award, so Adams' biggest competition is perhaps her own co-star.She plays the Queen Mother - surely this means that every single British Oscar voter will be behind her as a matter of principle.Would%20they%20ever%20really%20give%20an%20Oscar%20to%20someone%20who%20wears%20[two%20different%20shoes%20to%20the%20Golden%20Globes](http://gofugyourself.com/golden-globes-fug-carpet-helena-bonham-carter-01-2011?auto=format&w=1440&q=80)
](http://empireonline.media/jpg/50/0/0/640/480/aspectfit/0/0/0/0/0/0/l/uploaded/oscarbulletred.gif)Maybe Oscar is saving it up to award her next year for her final turn as Bellatrix Lestrange in Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part II. So we like to think.She's won everything going so far; why break the habit of an awards season?Oscar voters don't always concur with SAG, and the Golden Globes are no guide at all.Steinfeld's role as Mattie Ross in True Grit is a lead in all but name: she carries the film and, never mind holding her own, actually steals scenes from Matt Damon and Jeff Bridges.It's sort of cheating to nominate your leading lady in the Best Supporting category just because you think she has a better chance there.This year's dark horse nominee, Jacki Weaver is utterly mesmerising in this Aussie crime-drama, as the sometimes sweet, sometimes utterly ruthless matriarch of a criminal family. Think Lady Macbeth with knobs on.This is the annual Nomination For A Film None Of The Voters Actually Saw; Weaver may have to content herself with just being in the right company, and wait - like Melissa Leo, perhaps - for a higher profile role next time.Her%20character%20in%20Animal%20Kingdom%20is%20called%20%22Smurf%22.%20Can%20a%20Smurf%20really%20win%20an%20Oscar?+%28Cue+Avatar+jokes+in+4%2C3%2C2%E2%80%A6=&auto=format&w=1440&q=80)