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RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions

 
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RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 17/2/2014 8:31:20 PM   
Cool Breeze


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I suspect that Noah will be a big flop.

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Post #: 31
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/2/2014 3:23:52 PM   
spark1

 

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Joined: 18/11/2006
'lego' still rules-

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/lego-keeping-box-office-warm-with-30-million-weekend-1201115988/

http://www.deadline.com/2014/02/box-office-lego-is-lord-of-business-costners-3-days-to-kill-no-2-buries-pompeii/


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Post #: 32
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/2/2014 5:29:10 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Boxoffice dot com currently has predited it will make 144m domestic. Would not call that a flop, but definitely not a big domestic success. I think it will suffer a lot under Captain America, at both the domestic and foreign box offices.

In the end, it probably will wind up more than profitable though.



Personally, I really hope Need For Speed will be a big success. Aaron Paul deserves a big career, and if this movie becomes succesful, it could set up a really big one for him.

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Post #: 33
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/2/2014 7:09:34 PM   
directorscut


Posts: 10881
Joined: 30/9/2005
Catching Fire boots Dead Man's Chest out of the US Top 10:

$423,628,000.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

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Post #: 34
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/2/2014 7:19:20 PM   
Deviation


Posts: 27284
Joined: 2/6/2006
From: Enemies of Film HQ
It seems like everything WS Anderson does outside the game adaptations turn out to be flops.

(I'm not sure what I consider AvP to be)

< Message edited by Deviation -- 23/2/2014 7:20:01 PM >


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Post #: 35
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/2/2014 8:37:09 PM   
jackcarter


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Joined: 12/1/2006
Podcast #95 @13.40 discuss which 2014 film might break $1b
http://www.empireonline.com/news/story.asp?NID=39917
http://www.empireonline.com/features/biggest-films-of-2014-box-office-prediction

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 24/4/2014 2:33:23 PM >

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Post #: 36
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 24/2/2014 4:35:18 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Spiderman2, can break it. The only thing that seems to be in position to really hurt it is Captain America 2, which needs to be outstanding will it hold long enough that superhero-fans have had their share. Its domestic product won't really be that high, 250~300, I'm thinking, but overseas it's bound to do great business.

Transformers is a no-brainer.

How to train your dragon stands a chance, seeing as it has really no competition. The only big animated feature to come out all summer is Planes 2. (Right?)

Mockingjay part 1. Although I have heard from a lot of people that they will wait with watching this one untill mockingjay part 2 is out, because of the ending of catching fire. If that won't be the case, it should aim at 400m domestic again, and 600m worldwide won't be too hard, right?

Finally, the last hobbit. The Hobbit 2, is on its way to maybe crack the 1b as well. This one has a great chance since it is the last of the series ánd probably Peter Jacksons last visit to middle earth.

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Post #: 37
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 24/2/2014 5:15:37 PM   
jackcarter


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I think the 1b breakers will be Hobbit 3, SpiderMan2, and TF4, (and maybe Interstellar if it gets Inception style word of mouth)

so 3-4 billion $ hits like 2011/2012

still got to do my full estimate list!

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Post #: 38
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 26/2/2014 11:32:08 AM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Interstellar will be really hurt by other strong international movies like Big Hero 6 (expectation) and Mockingjay. If Interstellar will be good, I really hope it will join the 1b club. I also really hope, that they will market the movie as other stuff than 'from the director of the dark knight and inception, comes another weird movie that will hurt your brain at first, but we won't tell you what it's really about.' Inception had a tremendous marketing, but I'm really afraid they will do Interstellar's marketing wrong.

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Post #: 39
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 26/2/2014 12:08:27 PM   
Chronicle

 

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I don't think Interstellar will do better than Inception. I'm guessing 700-750 million worldwide. They won't have the Dicaprio-effect this time

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Post #: 40
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 26/2/2014 12:13:42 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
Joined: 12/1/2006
quote:

don't think Interstellar will do better than Inception. I'm guessing 700-750 million worldwide. They won't have the Dicaprio-effect this time


No but it will benefit from the McConaissance! (esp if he wins the Oscar)

quote:

also really hope, that they will market the movie as other stuff than 'from the director of the dark knight and inception, comes another weird movie that will hurt your brain at first, but we won't tell you what it's really about.' Inception had a tremendous marketing, but I'm really afraid they will do Interstellar's marketing wrong.


i imagine it will be marketed as a sort of follow up to Inception. Inception in Space..

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 26/2/2014 12:27:15 PM >

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Post #: 41
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 1/3/2014 1:33:19 PM   
spark1

 

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estimate for the weekend-

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-son-of-god-prays-for-25-million-weekend-gaining-on-non-stop-1201123569/#

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Post #: 42
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 7/3/2014 11:19:46 AM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
So.. Frozen joined the 1B club finally, last weekend. Does anyone think it can reach top10 all time? Or at least pass Toy Story 3, to become the biggest animated feature ever?

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Post #: 43
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 7/3/2014 11:58:54 AM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6901
Joined: 18/11/2006
'300' sequel expected to open well this weekend-

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-300-sequel-muscles-toward-40-mil-opening-ahead-of-peabody-sherman-1201127247/#


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Post #: 44
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 7/3/2014 1:56:53 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


Posts: 8953
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Boomen

So.. Frozen joined the 1B club finally, last weekend. Does anyone think it can reach top10 all time? Or at least pass Toy Story 3, to become the biggest animated feature ever?


I can't believe the popularity of Frozen, it's completely lost on me. I mean if it was something genuinely impressive like Up or something, i could understand, but something as mediocre and average as Frozen is crazy.

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Post #: 45
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 8/3/2014 4:01:48 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands

quote:

ORIGINAL: DONOVAN KURTWOOD

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Boomen

So.. Frozen joined the 1B club finally, last weekend. Does anyone think it can reach top10 all time? Or at least pass Toy Story 3, to become the biggest animated feature ever?


I can't believe the popularity of Frozen, it's completely lost on me. I mean if it was something genuinely impressive like Up or something, i could understand, but something as mediocre and average as Frozen is crazy.


I still put it as the best 2013 movie that I have seen. It's understandable why people do not really like it; it's a freaking musical. Not just a disney musical, but a full musical. Everything was a song, that's what I loved most about it. Also, its visuals were stunning.

For its success, I'd say word of mouth helped, but also the weather. We've had a really calm winter in Europe and people probably enjoyed seeing so much snow and ice. Meanwhile, the Americans could identify with the world of Frozen, when they were covered in snow and ice.

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Post #: 46
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 19/4/2014 1:13:33 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Look at that, a religious movie is poised to open higher than a big-budget Johnny Depp movie. Who would have believed such a thing a couple of years?

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Post #: 47
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/4/2014 8:35:49 AM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


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Reviews have indeed been savage for Transendence though. That kind of thing didn't help The Lone Ranger and certainly won't help Depp this time around.

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Post #: 48
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/4/2014 10:43:13 AM   
Chronicle

 

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Joined: 30/11/2012
Never imagined Transcendence would be a box office-flop. But then again, I was expecting rave reviews..


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Post #: 49
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/4/2014 1:00:21 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


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From: PLANET G
Same, i was expecting great reviews.

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Post #: 50
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/4/2014 11:21:27 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
Joined: 12/1/2006
thought Depp plus the Inception vibe would've helped this one

but absolutely not

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 24/4/2014 2:18:31 PM >

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Post #: 51
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 24/4/2014 12:12:18 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
Joined: 12/1/2006
BOmojos summer estimates:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm

which could do 1b
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3816&p=.htm


my random list (US total / overall worldwide total)

TF4 (400m/1.2b)

Hobbit3 (350m/1.1b)

Interstellar (300m/900m)

HungerGames3 (420m/850m)

SM2 (250m/800m)

CA2 (250m/700m)

Apes2 (250m/700m)

XM:DOFP (250m/650m)

Godzilla (150m/600m)

GOTG (200m/450m)

TMNT (180m/400m)

Exodus (150m/400m)

Expendables3 (100m/350m)

Maleficent (100m/300m)

Jupiter (80m/300m)

EOT (80m/280m)

Herc (80m/250m)

SC2 (100m/200m)

Equalizer (70m/150m)

Million Ways to Die (50m/80m)

Transcendence/Lucy (30m/70m)


< Message edited by jackcarter -- 12/5/2014 9:53:12 AM >

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Post #: 52
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 24/4/2014 1:34:06 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


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From: PLANET G
I'm terrible at predicting box office so i don't bother. Will be interesting to see which break the 1B barrier though.

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Post #: 53
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 27/4/2014 4:51:43 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Interesting figures you're putting out there. I tihnk you're underestimating the hype of DOFP, and the amount of money that Seth MacFarlane's name alone is worth. Maleficent is a tough one as it can go anywhere.

You are definitely too high on TMNT. That one will be competing with GOTG's second weekend and if the word of mouth is strong enough on GOTG, it will cripple TMNT.

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Post #: 54
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 28/4/2014 1:33:52 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Boomen

Interesting figures you're putting out there. I tihnk you're underestimating the hype of DOFP, and the amount of money that Seth MacFarlane's name alone is worth. Maleficent is a tough one as it can go anywhere.

You are definitely too high on TMNT. That one will be competing with GOTG's second weekend and if the word of mouth is strong enough on GOTG, it will cripple TMNT.


I just don't think XM DOFP will do any more than an improvement of about 100m on XM:TLS when adjusted (460m in 2006 roughly 550m today) and that's high expectation as well (400m overseas is a big ask for XM but DOFP is an event)

Seth McF - yes Ted made 500m+ but a Comedy Western?...I just dont think its going to happen at all

and think TMNT are too popular for it to be sunk (even if its terrible) in fact I think ive probably underestimated it at 400m...(its the same kind of deal as TF)

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Post #: 55
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 28/4/2014 2:13:23 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
Joined: 12/1/2006
with regard to the top 4 im not really sure which will come out on top - but decided to go with TF4 over Hobbit due to the dinobots/fresh cast and the fact each TF bests the prev ones BO, however Hobbit is the final one so should improve over Smaug (see LOTR3, final Potter/Twilight, SW Ep3)

and with Interstellar vs HG3 its tricky as yes IS is Nolan but lofty 2001 type space pontificating (if that's what its to be) might not be as appealing to general audiences as action like Inception so could be vastly overestimating by about 300m (think the highest grossing of the serious SF space exploration genre like 2001/Solaris/Sunshine etc is Prometheus), and HG2 improved over HG1 and 3 has PSH in his final film (but then it is Part 1 of a 2 parter so might not improve too much on prev like Potter DH/Twilight BD Part 1s, before the final film breaks 1b)

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 28/4/2014 5:19:25 PM >

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Post #: 56
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 28/4/2014 9:30:39 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
DOFP has a bigger team-up effect and it features some of the biggest actors of modern times. Jennifer Lawrence alone, will always bring in a lot of fans and overall awareness. We'll see what will come from it.

TMNT is an august release so 400m worldwide isn't an easy achievement. Another one which we will have to see how it'll do. I'm not from the US, so I don't know how big the general interest in TMNT is, but as it looks from the internet, people are aware but not interested.

Hobbit3 will certainly improve over smaug, but if that will happen in the US as well is still a question. TF4 has a much, much bigger shot at making it over 325m than hobbit3.

HG3 is tricky. Even though catching fire improved over the first installment, it is unlikely that the series can improve. Like you said, they split the last movie in two parts. I really think Interstellar will also slow HG3 down. That all depends on what the movie will look like, when a normal trailer will release. Nolan's name is such a big brand nowadays and he is one of the most recognised directors in modern times. And if there are people that won't know who he is they will just have to say 'the director from inception and the dark knight'. Seeing those names will already generate a big hype and a lot of word of mouth.

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Post #: 57
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 2/5/2014 12:00:21 AM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
Joined: 12/1/2006
TASM2 opening wkend?

I'm going with 85m (TASM was 62m)

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 2/5/2014 12:05:14 AM >

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Post #: 58
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 2/5/2014 10:40:13 AM   
Chronicle

 

Posts: 224
Joined: 30/11/2012
I think it will probably be over 90M if you look at how well it is doing on international markets.

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Post #: 59
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 2/5/2014 12:34:39 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
It has the 10th widest release ever. Apparently people in college that aren't complete film buffs are really siked for this movie, as are small children. Add general audiences that have nothing better to watch, haters who want to prove their point, general comic book geeks, general spidey fans of older ages.

I'm going with near 97.2m, but I think it could top the 100m.


quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter
I'm going with 85m (TASM was 62m)


Irrelevant because TASM opened on a tuesday.

< Message edited by Chris Boomen -- 2/5/2014 12:37:37 PM >


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