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2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions

 
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2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 27/12/2013 2:29:43 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
I hope this thread does not exist already. If so, merge away fellas. I am new, by the way. Glad to be here. Also, I am from the Netherlands so I do not get all the marketing that you do for a lot of movies.

I am missing a lot of movies. Just like We're the Millers, was a year ago, there are a lot of movies which barely even have a trailer so I would not be able to estimate or assume what they will do. This is my first prediction LIST. I am an amateur, but I have been following box office news quite closely the past year. Correct me if I am wrong about stuff, I am here to learn, entertain and mostly to amuse myself. This topic is more than open for discussion.

To put it simply, I am only doing high-profile movies, that will be making big bucks.

Paranormal Activity: Marked Ones:
These movies will never flop, because they barely cost anything. I am assuming that is the case for this one as well. This is the first one opening in January, and I think there is not the seem demand for these darker type of movies, right after the holidays. It will probably make less money than Paranormal 4, but should still make it over $150m worldwide.

The Legend of Hercules:
I saw a trailer, a while back and this looks like crap. Guessing it will bomb, majorly. If this one becomes a success, then that will be a major kick in the stomach for Dwayne Johnson's Hercules movie. Worldwide this movie can make some solid money, but the studio won't be making profits. (budget $70m) times 2,5 = $175m, which will not happen.

I, Frankenstein:
Aaron Eckhart and Stuart Beatie can probably push this movie to a big January spot, but it's still January so I do not expect too much from this one. Overseas this one will make a lot of money, I predict.

The Lego Movie:
This one will be killing it in February. It will also pave the way for what Spongebob 2, can make in 2015. Hard to predict this one, but I am (reservedly) predicting this one will make about $150m domestic and $500m worldwide.

Robocop:
In line with Jumper and Ghost Rider, this one will at most make $100m domestic. Worldwide tally will be higher, $300m+, if Asia is as interested as I think they are.

300: Rise of An Empire:
Solid business, but not as much as the first one. $100m domestic.

Need for Speed:
Now FF7 won't be out in 2014, this one will take a lot of money from people that were skipping NFS for FF7, but it's probably to early in the year for this one to make a ridiculous amount of money.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier:
$220m domestic, $650m worldwide. Realy anticipating this one, but I am still skeptic about how much money a guy called Captain AMERICA can make in Asia. Still, marvel seems to know what they are doing so I would not be surprised if this one makes it past $700m.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2:
A very popular character that already made $750m, in a summer where the Avengers and Batman were killing it. It does not have much superhero resistance, so I would even go as far to say that this one can make $1b worldwide.

X-Men: Days of Future Past:
This one will suffer under Spider-man. Fans don't seem to be really interesting, from what i have read. It will make money, but nothing extravagant. It will probably not top $500m worldwide.

How to Train Your Dragon 2:
Quite possibly, the Despicable Me 2 of 2014. At least overseas. How does $250m domestic and an foreign gross of $500m sound. This one faces barely any great competition (pixar is out of the year) and people loved the first one.

Transformers: Age of Extinction:
This one will make way more money than it should. If they do the marketing well, a billion could be of great possibility...

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes:
$150m domestic and a worldwide of $500m. I have no idea, really.

Guardians of the Galaxy:
No record, but I think $200m domestic is a good possibility. August is a slow month, but it's marvel and superhero fans have not had too much spectacle this year. Domestic it will probably miss out a lot but perhaps a worldwide tally of $500m is not out of reach.

The Expendables 3:
People liked the second more than the first, so a $100m domestic is quite possible. Worldwide it will gain a lot thunder I think. $350m worldwide seems doable.

The Loft:
I have no idea, but I'm putting it here for discussions sake. This is based on a Belgian movie that was remade in Dutch, so I am quite interested to what people may predict it to make.

Paranormal Activity 5:
$150m worldwide.

Interstellar:
Nolan is a very marketable director and his following is huge. However, Mockingjay will steal a lot of its thunder. $650m worldwide, tops, although I hope it will do better.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1:
After setting a new November record, this one will make a billion dollars worldwide. CF is getting to overseas peoples minds and the franchise is only getting bigger.

The Hobbit: There and Back Again:
This one still depends on what the current Hobbit is making, but seeing as it is the finale and (for new) the final Peter Jackson Middle Earth movie, this will also make a billion dollars.

My predictions are very unpolished, and I am still an amateur. I hope you enjoyed reading my predictions and feel free to discuss them with me. I am open for critique.

Thanks.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird
Post #: 1
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 5/1/2014 12:24:09 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
'paranormal' franchise stalls-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/box-office-paranormal-activity-opens-but-cant-spook-frozens-climb-towards-300m/


< Message edited by spark1 -- 6/1/2014 10:22:28 AM >

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 2
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 5/1/2014 6:40:12 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
If it follows the pattern of Texax Chainsaw 3D and the Devil Inside, it will close around $30m. Screw that $150m worldwide too, it made less overseas than stateside.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 3
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 11/1/2014 1:33:27 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
marky mark brings it this weekend with 'lone survivior'-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/box-office-results-lone-survivor-hercules-frozen/

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 4
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 17/1/2014 12:50:58 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
jack ryan vs ice cube this weekend-

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-ride-along-1201060778/#


(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 5
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 19/1/2014 11:49:22 AM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
estimates for this weekend-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/box-office-ride-along-jack-ryan/

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 6
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 20/1/2014 10:32:21 AM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
bad news for 'jack ryan' franchise.

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 7
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 20/1/2014 10:49:40 AM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
The good thing is that Shadow Recruit opened about on par with The Hunt for Red October. The bad thing is that the hunt was released 24 years ago and ticket prices were much, much lower back then.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 8
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/1/2014 1:38:03 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1863
Joined: 12/1/2006
Will post my estimates soon, but was way out on Ryan (see last year BO est post)

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 9
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/1/2014 1:59:43 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


Posts: 9142
Joined: 6/10/2005
From: PLANET G
Shame for Ryan, although i've yet to see the movie myself. Hollywood seems to have problems getting new franchises launched of late.

_____________________________

Pack your bags, we're going on a guilt trip!

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 10
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 22/1/2014 7:41:50 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Well let's be honest, January is not the right time to launch a franchise...

Might redo my estimates, as they are pretty bad. When reading it back.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to DONOVAN KURTWOOD)
Post #: 11
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/1/2014 9:12:46 AM   
Chronicle

 

Posts: 224
Joined: 30/11/2012
I'm not a pro at box-office predictions but I'm pretty sure Seventh Son will be one of the biggest fails of the year.

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 12
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 23/1/2014 1:29:54 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


Posts: 9142
Joined: 6/10/2005
From: PLANET G

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chronicle

I'm not a pro at box-office predictions but I'm pretty sure Seventh Son will be one of the biggest fails of the year.


This has been bumped to Feb 2015.

_____________________________

Pack your bags, we're going on a guilt trip!

(in reply to Chronicle)
Post #: 13
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 25/1/2014 1:11:02 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
'i, frankenstein' dies at box office-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/box-office-ride-along-no-1-i-frankenstein/


(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 14
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 28/1/2014 2:55:14 PM   
ElephantBoy

 

Posts: 8627
Joined: 13/4/2006

quote:

ORIGINAL: spark1

'i, frankenstein' dies at box office-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/box-office-ride-along-no-1-i-frankenstein/



Not surprised I think Erckhaart is seen more as a good supporting actor (I personally think he can lead a film) than a lead, and it is alway risky updating something like Frankenstein which has been done so many times and doesn't always attract a younger audience. Still maybe it'll make its money back worldwide. I for one am intriuged.

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 15
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 31/1/2014 11:51:13 AM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
and no one wants to see chris pine play a spy either-look how 'this mean's war' turned out.

'awkward moment' for 'ride along'?-

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-zac-efrons-that-awkward-moment-poised-to-win-super-bowl-weekend-1201077020/#

< Message edited by spark1 -- 1/2/2014 1:27:40 PM >

(in reply to ElephantBoy)
Post #: 16
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 1/2/2014 1:27:25 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
'ride along' wins after all-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/box-office-ride-along-rolls-over-that-awkward-moment-frozen-sing-a-long-chimes/




(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 17
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 8/2/2014 1:26:46 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
'lego' rules, 'vampire' dies-


http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-the-lego-movie-soaring-to-60-million-debut-1201092326/

http://www.deadline.com/2014/02/box-office-lego-blockbuster-at-60m-monuments-men-solid-second-vampire-academy-has-no-bite/

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 18
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 8/2/2014 1:31:57 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Based on friday estimates, the lego movie apparently is racing to a 75m opening. Wow.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 19
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 8/2/2014 2:42:43 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Boomen

Based on friday estimates, the lego movie apparently is racing to a 75m opening. Wow.



made its money back already.
and with some decent reviews too.

< Message edited by spark1 -- 10/2/2014 10:40:48 AM >

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 20
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 9/2/2014 11:44:49 AM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1863
Joined: 12/1/2006
Wonder what Robo will pull in next wkend?

my guess is 38m opening

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 21
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 9/2/2014 3:59:18 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
That's probably too high. I'd say something nearing 30m, maybe even lower.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 22
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 13/2/2014 11:25:23 AM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
winter blast in US bound to hit box office this weekend.

(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 23
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 14/2/2014 2:10:54 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
I believe Ray Subers. He said that it will hurt, at most, 10-12% of the BO.

Also, did anyone notice that the bad weather seems to only really strike bad movies?

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 24
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 14/2/2014 5:46:59 PM   
directorscut


Posts: 10887
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

Wonder what Robo will pull in next wkend?

my guess is 38m opening


I'd be surprised if it made more than $20m.

DOA.

_____________________________



Member of the TMNT 1000 Club.

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 25
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 15/2/2014 4:23:29 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
estimate from deadline-

http://www.deadline.com/2014/02/box-office-lego-blocks-80s-remakes-about-last-night-robocop-endless-love/

(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 26
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 16/2/2014 12:18:02 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6989
Joined: 18/11/2006
interesting that 3d cgi toons have become so fairly cheap to make, excluding ad/promotion costs, and are now a good bet for studios.


(in reply to Chris Boomen)
Post #: 27
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 16/2/2014 3:54:46 PM   
Chris Boomen

 

Posts: 274
Joined: 26/12/2013
From: The Netherlands
Haven't they always been a pretty good bet for studios? I actually think there is going to be too much competition in that field. Part of why Frozen performed so well, was because there wasn't any other similar movie to stop it. With movies as the Nut Job and Free Birds also getting inbetween the regular program of Disney, Pixar, Illuminati, and other big players, will also hurt the bigger movies.I think we're going towards a point where animation films can actually bomb as much as comedies can and after that, straight toward a point where animation will have the same risk of bombing as action flicks do.

_____________________________

"I love all the arts, but I love movies most because they combine so many of them."
~Brad Bird

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 28
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 16/2/2014 9:22:20 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1863
Joined: 12/1/2006

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

Wonder what Robo will pull in next wkend?

my guess is 38m opening

21m...i was away out LOL

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 29
RE: 2014 Box Office Estimates and Predictions - 16/2/2014 9:36:31 PM   
Hood_Man


Posts: 12189
Joined: 30/9/2005
Meanwhile, Frozen just keeps chugging along and sits at $955 million worldwide

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 30
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