ElephantBoy
Posts: 7359
Joined: 13/4/2006
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Harry Tuttle quote:
ORIGINAL: rawlinson quote:
ORIGINAL: ElephantBoy quote:
ORIGINAL: rawlinson quote:
ORIGINAL: ElephantBoy Really need to catch up with Argo epscially as if you believe some it may cause an upset and beat the likes of Lincoln and Les Miserables to the Oscar, which I don't buy but its certainly interesting. Argo is more of a favourite than either of them. Les Mis is a rank outsider. Don't know what planet you are living on thinking that, reguardless of what you think of the three films, history says that Lincoln and Les Miserables are the sort of films which tend to win best picture not Argo which has been a suprise indie hit and until recently has been just in front of Amour and Beasts as a outsider. It has only be recently with Argo winning awards in the run up which has put it in the running. It would be nice for a left field choice to win. Argo was one of the favourites to win for the last few months. Argo has won the Producer's Guild Award. Since 1989, the film that has won the Producer's Guild Award has gone on to win the Oscar 18 times. Argo also won the Screen Actor's Guild best ensemble over tough competition. Since 1995, the winner has gone on to win Best Picture eight times. When the same film has won both the PGA and SAG ensemble, the film has won the Oscar all but twice. Argo doesn't have a best director nomination, which hurts the film, only three films have ever won best picture without a best director nomination - Wings, Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy. Driving Miss Daisy was a PGA winner, btw. Argo is the frontrunner, that's on planet Earth, btw. Les Miserables doesn't have a best director nomination, it also doesn't have the benefit of guild support or a best editing nomination. In the history of the Oscars, only nine films have won best picture without a best editing nomination. A film hasn't won best picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1980. Since the editing Oscar was introduced in 1934 if a film hasn't been nominated for either or those two awards, it hasn't won best picture. Les Miserables hasn't been getting support from the guilds. It didn't sweep the critics awards, and it didn't get the two key Oscar noms for winning best picture. If it should win, it would be one of the biggest upsets in the history of the Oscars. Now you can argue all you want about "films like... usually win" but that's ultimately irrelevant. What matters is what films the guilds support, because the guilds are the people who actually vote. Argo is the favourite because it's won the guild Silver Linings is second because it has the overwhelming support of the largest voting body in the Academy, along with support from the directors and editors. Lincoln is slightly behind because it didn't get an editing nomination Amour, Beasts and Life of Pi are just behind that because they all have directing noms. Zero Dark Thirty, Les Mis and Django are the most unlikely to win right now. The only way any of this changes is if someone other than Affleck wins the DGA. That's not saying Argo is definitely going to win best picture, it's saying it's the clear frontrunner right now. Now, do you want to try basing your response on facts? Actually, one correction, Lincoln did get the editing nom, I was mixing it up with Amour. So Lincoln is slightly ahead of Silver Linings because it got a DGA nom and Linings didn't. Argo is favourite for Oscar after DGA win CLICK Thanks for reading my post properly I did say it has become a favourite on the back of the guild win, but that is a recent thing. Still say it would be a slight suprise, a nice one yes. I get your thinking Rawls on Les Mis but don't forgot Muscials tranditonally do well at the Oscars, not least ones of this epic nature. Back to the list The Master is of course excellent, but I must see it again soon as I was unclear first time around if it was one of PTA's truly great films. An odd and beautfiul story, visually amazing with a great score and Phoenix really should bag that oscar. Paranorman was a wonderful old school animation. Avengers is great entertainment, in my top twenty but not quite as high as you rank it.
< Message edited by ElephantBoy -- 5/2/2013 2:55:14 PM >
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