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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates

 
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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 16/5/2013 11:16:38 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
STID wkend predictions?

alot of sites are saying 100m so yeah maybe 100m (the last one had 75m opening)

seems funny to talk about a Trek film doing those crazy blockbuster numbers (esp after after the TNG films), but Trek is now a summer blockbuster series holding its own against the big superhero films etc (just like the original cast Trek films went up against all the big Lucas/Spielberg etc summer/xmas films of the 80s)

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 17/5/2013 11:58:50 AM >

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 151
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 17/5/2013 11:03:17 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
IM3 break $1b


(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 152
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 18/5/2013 7:01:32 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
Joined: 9/11/2011
From: The Internet

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

STID wkend predictions?

alot of sites are saying 100m so yeah maybe 100m (the last one had 75m opening)

seems funny to talk about a Trek film doing those crazy blockbuster numbers (esp after after the TNG films), but Trek is now a summer blockbuster series holding its own against the big superhero films etc (just like the original cast Trek films went up against all the big Lucas/Spielberg etc summer/xmas films of the 80s)


Its already opened internationally to an increase of 70% on the previous film.

_____________________________

'' Iv played Oskar Schindler, Michael Collins, Rob Roy Mcgregor, even ZEUS for gods sake! No one is going to believe me to be a green grocer! ''

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 153
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 19/5/2013 5:46:41 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
looks like Trek has underperformed slightly with a $70.5m opening wkend (84m 4 day gross)

possible reasons for underperforming = too long a wait? (4 years not 3), IM3 still making big?, releasing 1 week ahead in Europe? (therefore spoilers all over the net), too much mystery over the villain?, too much a remake of II?

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 19/5/2013 9:17:45 PM >

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 154
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 19/5/2013 6:00:21 PM   
sanchia


Posts: 18337
Joined: 3/1/2006
From: Norwich

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

looks like Trek has underperformed slightly with a $70m opening wkend (85m 4 day gross)

possible reasons for underperforming = too long a wait? (4 years not 3), IM3 still making big?, releasing 1 week ahead in Europe? (therefore spoilers all over the net), too much mystery over the villain?, too much a remake of II?


Possibly word got around of the final quarter which may have put people off and I agree the remake rather than original thing may well have put people off.

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Post #: 155
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 19/5/2013 10:55:22 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
Joined: 9/11/2011
From: The Internet
quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

looks like Trek has underperformed slightly with a $70.5m opening wkend (84m 4 day gross)

possible reasons for underperforming = too long a wait? (4 years not 3), IM3 still making big?, releasing 1 week ahead in Europe? (therefore spoilers all over the net), too much mystery over the villain?, too much a remake of II?


How the heck is $70.5m underperforming?

Its not Iron Man 3 money but Star trek was never going to be a serious threat to that.

And internationally its opened to 70% better business than the previous film.All signs indicate that its going to be financially the most successful Trek film ever.

Of course Fast 6 will top the box office next weekend, so sandwiched in between that and a still going strong Iron Man 3 means that Trek has serious competition.

< Message edited by Cool Breeze -- 19/5/2013 11:12:13 PM >


_____________________________

'' Iv played Oskar Schindler, Michael Collins, Rob Roy Mcgregor, even ZEUS for gods sake! No one is going to believe me to be a green grocer! ''

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 156
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 19/5/2013 11:21:56 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

looks like Trek has underperformed slightly with a $70.5m opening wkend (84m 4 day gross)

possible reasons for underperforming = too long a wait? (4 years not 3), IM3 still making big?, releasing 1 week ahead in Europe? (therefore spoilers all over the net), too much mystery over the villain?, too much a remake of II?


How the heck is $70.5m underperforming?

Its not Iron Man 3 money but Star trek was never going to be a serious threat to that.

And internationally its opened to 70% better business than the previous film.All signs indicate that its going to be financially the most successful Trek film ever.

Of course Fast 6 will top the box office next weekend, so sandwiched in between that and a still going strong Iron Man 3 means that Trek has serious competition.


It is underperforming because even with inflated ticket prices and 3D/IMAX it made $5M less that Star Trek 09' did in its opening weekend. That means less people went to see this one, than 09'. And yes it is doing better overseas but remember - last time it did $127M in total.

Even if it did 100% more business overseas it still puts it about 250M, and it isn't hitting those levels. Into Darkness may not even hit 200M in the US - meaning that it may, just may make what the first one did.

Paramount did not make this movie to make what the last one did. It is therefore underperforming. I know you are a fan of it Cool, but these things happen. Doubt it affects Abrams on Star Wars, but may impact on a third Trek film - they either spend less money on it, or retreat to making a new TV series.

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 157
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 19/5/2013 11:52:29 PM   
Shifty Bench

 

Posts: 15400
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Land of the Scots
Yeah, it's not bombing but it's not exactly doing as well as Paramount expected. It's how the film does domestically that counts and it fell short of estimates. And next week Fast 6 and The Hangover 3 are released....

_____________________________

Extended Edition Podcast- Episode 46:Threads Of Destiny (Star Wars Fan Film)

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Post #: 158
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:16:02 AM   
directorscut


Posts: 10891
Joined: 30/9/2005
More like Star Trek Into Making Less Money, amirite?

quote:

All signs indicate that its going to be financially the most successful Trek film ever.


Considering it cost $250 million its highly unlikely to make its money back theatrically never mind come close to Wrath of Khan making 11x times its budget.

It's far more likely of becoming Trek's biggest money-loser.

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Post #: 159
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:27:28 AM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
Joined: 9/11/2011
From: The Internet
quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

More like Star Trek Into Making Less Money, amirite?

quote:

All signs indicate that its going to be financially the most successful Trek film ever.


Considering it cost $250 million its highly unlikely to make its money back theatrically never mind come close to Wrath of Khan making 11x times its budget.

It's far more likely of becoming Trek's biggest money-loser.


Wrath Of Khan was the cheapest movie of the series to make.Making its budget 11x times was not going to be hard!

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.

The last film had the benefit of weak competiton ( it was up against the critically panned Wolverine and Terminator:Salvation ).This time its got more serious competition with post Avengers Iron Man 3, Fast 6 , and ( sigh ) Hangover 3.

< Message edited by Cool Breeze -- 20/5/2013 12:30:23 AM >


_____________________________

'' Iv played Oskar Schindler, Michael Collins, Rob Roy Mcgregor, even ZEUS for gods sake! No one is going to believe me to be a green grocer! ''

(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 160
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:30:47 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze


quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

More like Star Trek Into Making Less Money, amirite?

quote:

All signs indicate that its going to be financially the most successful Trek film ever.


Considering it cost $250 million its highly unlikely to make its money back theatrically never mind come close to Wrath of Khan making 11x times its budget.

It's far more likely of becoming Trek's biggest money-loser.


Wrath Of Khan was the cheapest movie of the series to make.Making its budget 11x times was not going to be hard!

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.


I think it might, just might scrape through. But this not what Paramount wanted, given how well regarded the first one is. You have to admit that it not even making what 09' did is a surprise, and a disappointment.

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 161
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:33:26 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
Also no one is going to care about Star Trek next weekend when Fast and Furious and Hangover 3 hits. Iron Man 3 might overtake it....

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 162
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:34:54 AM   
Shifty Bench

 

Posts: 15400
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Land of the Scots

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.


No, it has only made around $80 million so far which is $20 million short of what Paramount wanted. Like has been said before, it is the domestic numbers that count to the studio.


_____________________________

Extended Edition Podcast- Episode 46:Threads Of Destiny (Star Wars Fan Film)

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 163
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:36:53 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shifty Bench


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.


No, it has only made around $80 million so far which is $20 million short of what Paramount wanted. Like has been said before, it is the domestic numbers that count to the studio.



To be fair it has made what Cool said in total - but any increase in international is going to be offset by the fall in domestic, which makes it likely the film ends up pretty close to where the last one was.

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Shifty Bench)
Post #: 164
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:41:33 AM   
Shifty Bench

 

Posts: 15400
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Land of the Scots

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shifty Bench


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.


No, it has only made around $80 million so far which is $20 million short of what Paramount wanted. Like has been said before, it is the domestic numbers that count to the studio.



To be fair it has made what Cool said in total - but any increase in international is going to be offset by the fall in domestic, which makes it likely the film ends up pretty close to where the last one was.


Yup. And I wasn't correcting Cool's total just that that total doesn't matter too much. It didn't make as much money as the studio had hoped in the US, therefore it is underperforming so far.


_____________________________

Extended Edition Podcast- Episode 46:Threads Of Destiny (Star Wars Fan Film)

(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 165
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 12:47:13 AM   
directorscut


Posts: 10891
Joined: 30/9/2005
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.



I'll eat my nuts if it makes $500 million WW.

_____________________________



Member of the TMNT 1000 Club.

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 166
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 7:04:33 AM   
sanchia


Posts: 18337
Joined: 3/1/2006
From: Norwich

quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.



I'll eat my nuts if it makes $500 million WW.


This could be interesting.

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Nothing to see here.



(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 167
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 8:58:31 AM   
Chronicle

 

Posts: 247
Joined: 30/11/2012
I don't think Star Trek will be a box-office hit.. Too much competition, Fast Six is going to overtake as soon as they release.

(in reply to sanchia)
Post #: 168
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 10:11:10 AM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

More like Star Trek Into Making Less Money, amirite?

quote:

All signs indicate that its going to be financially the most successful Trek film ever.


Considering it cost $250 million its highly unlikely to make its money back theatrically never mind come close to Wrath of Khan making 11x times its budget.

It's far more likely of becoming Trek's biggest money-loser.


Wrath Of Khan was the cheapest movie of the series to make.Making its budget 11x times was not going to be hard!

To date, Into Darkness has made $164 million after only a week.To say that its not going to make its money back theatrically and become Treks biggest money loser is ridiculous.

The last film had the benefit of weak competiton ( it was up against the critically panned Wolverine and Terminator:Salvation ).This time its got more serious competition with post Avengers Iron Man 3, Fast 6 , and ( sigh ) Hangover 3.


yes it turned out that way. at the time it looked pretty intimiating for Trek out inbetween Wolverine and Angels/Demons, then T4 after that. esp the state Trek was in at the time (last movie flopped/tv show cancelled). X3 had been the biggest of the X films despite the negative reviews, plus this was a sole Wolverine film answering all the big origin questions - but then it got poor reviews and had been leaked online shortly before release. Da Vinci Code made 750m - but it was really only TDVC people were bothered about and no one liked that film much anyway so A/D wasnt too much a problem. T4 had Bale straight off TDK plus it was the highly anticipated future war film, so it looked a different beast to the underperforming/mixed reviewed T3 (which had still been a big hit) - but was panned plus people couldnt get over no Arnie, no Cameron (again), PG13, plus McG directing

so although it looked like Trek 09 was the underdog it ended up blowing them all away at the US box office and overseas/ww for Terminator & Wolverine (was only beat WW by Hanks)

but with STID the post Avengers IM3 was serious comeptition even 2 wkends later as audiences are treating it like Avengers 2. Gatsby did well, plus FF6/HO3 will more than likely have 70-80m openings

also its worth nothing that had Paramount not moved it to a day early at the last minute, STID probably wouldve had an 85m wkend, so not really underperformed/more in line with predictions/bettering ST09

still it should pull in 180-200m US and maybe 200m+ overseas so at least the same as the last one when adjusted

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 21/5/2013 12:40:57 PM >

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 169
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 11:51:25 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
It's a shame because I really enjoyed Star Trek but it does look as though it's going to struggle to make it's money back.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 170
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 20/5/2013 2:41:39 PM   
NCC1701A


Posts: 4488
Joined: 12/3/2011
From: Space Dock

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob

It's a shame because I really enjoyed Star Trek but it does look as though it's going to struggle to make it's money back.




Hope it does make it's money back as it's a good film.

_____________________________

Trench: I'll be back.

Church: You've been back enough. I'll be back.

[leaves]

Trench: Yippee-ki-yay.


The Expendables 2 (2012)

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 171
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 21/5/2013 11:35:50 AM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
theres no way it wont make its $ back and do at least as well as the last one.

IM3 now at #9 in the all time chart
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

think it will probably end up #5 (the most succesful lone superhero film - TDKR probably wouldve held that spot had it not been for the shootings...)

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 21/5/2013 12:48:14 PM >

(in reply to NCC1701A)
Post #: 172
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 21/5/2013 3:52:35 PM   
Chronicle

 

Posts: 247
Joined: 30/11/2012
When they re-release movies like they did with Jurassic park or Titanic. Do they add the new earnings to the old box-office numbers or not?

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 173
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 21/5/2013 4:08:37 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

theres no way it wont make its $ back and do at least as well as the last one.

IM3 now at #9 in the all time chart
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

think it will probably end up #5 (the most succesful lone superhero film - TDKR probably wouldve held that spot had it not been for the shootings...)


Given that a film needs to make roughly between 2 and 3 times it's production budget back to break even (due to marketing, the cinemas taking their cut etc) then given a budget of $190 million it needs to be looking at $380 / $400. I think it's touch and go as to whether or not Paramount go for a part 3. I really hope they do as I loved the first two having pretty much detested Star Trek prior to that.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chronicle

When they re-release movies like they did with Jurassic park or Titanic. Do they add the new earnings to the old box-office numbers or not?


Yup

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 174
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 22/5/2013 12:03:30 PM   
spark1

 

Posts: 7140
Joined: 18/11/2006
hence the big push overseas to promote 'darkness' and get a bigger international gross.

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 175
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 23/5/2013 9:29:22 AM   
NCC1701A


Posts: 4488
Joined: 12/3/2011
From: Space Dock
Which will take the top spot in the US box office Fast 6 or The Hangover Part III ?.

I think Fast 6 myself I am hopeing that Star Trek in to Darkness does stay high in the chart. Have no time for the Hangover films at all saw the first film and hated it.

_____________________________

Trench: I'll be back.

Church: You've been back enough. I'll be back.

[leaves]

Trench: Yippee-ki-yay.


The Expendables 2 (2012)

(in reply to spark1)
Post #: 176
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/5/2013 7:07:46 AM   
Chronicle

 

Posts: 247
Joined: 30/11/2012
Fast 6 deserves to lead the box-office when you compare the reviews. It's said that the Hangover 3 is horrible but not a lot of people tend to read reviews so it's possible they take the lead but I doubt it.

(in reply to NCC1701A)
Post #: 177
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/5/2013 11:11:54 AM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
Joined: 9/11/2011
From: The Internet
Mark Kermodes first reaction to Hangover 3..http://youtu.be/UNx-8wgUaMY



< Message edited by Cool Breeze -- 24/5/2013 11:12:15 AM >


_____________________________

'' Iv played Oskar Schindler, Michael Collins, Rob Roy Mcgregor, even ZEUS for gods sake! No one is going to believe me to be a green grocer! ''

(in reply to Chronicle)
Post #: 178
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/5/2013 12:38:49 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
hes doing that Richard Gere thing he sometimes does

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 24/5/2013 12:42:51 PM >

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 179
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/5/2013 3:12:18 PM   
Shifty Bench

 

Posts: 15400
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Land of the Scots
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

Mark Kermodes first reaction to Hangover 3..http://youtu.be/UNx-8wgUaMY




I never noticed before but without his glasses on, Kermode looks a bit like my uncle

Oh and I don't really get the appeal of the Hangover films either, I don't find them funny and I find it hard to sympathise with characters I want to kick in the balls on a regular basis.


< Message edited by Shifty Bench -- 24/5/2013 3:14:31 PM >


_____________________________

Extended Edition Podcast- Episode 46:Threads Of Destiny (Star Wars Fan Film)

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 180
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