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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/3/2013 6:06:20 PM   
directorscut


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Never underestimate a big budget family friendly film based on iconic cultural landmark.

Minimum: $80m
Probable: $90-$100m

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Post #: 91
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 10/3/2013 6:07:00 PM   
jackcarter


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80m you were right

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Post #: 92
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 14/3/2013 9:37:47 AM   
jackcarter


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2013 billion $ speculation:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3649&p=.htm

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Post #: 93
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/3/2013 4:44:49 PM   
jackcarter


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Olympus has Fallen (Die Hard in the white house) opens with 30m - better opening than AGDTDH

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Post #: 94
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/3/2013 5:22:47 PM   
Deviation


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 Forget that, there's a Korine movie in the Top 10.

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/3/2013 5:24:41 PM   
directorscut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Deviation

Forget that, there's a Korine movie in the Top 10.


America's taste in movies gets worse and worse.

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Post #: 96
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 25/3/2013 11:12:58 PM   
jackcarter


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im getting the feeling World War Z will be one of the films to hit $1b this year (maybe the only one). based on a successful book, the PG13 rating (probably 12A here) that will pretty much allow anyone to see it, worldwide appeal of moviestar Pitt who seems to have been off the radar a while (last big film 2009s IGBs) and hasnt been the lead in a huge budget SF/Fantasy film like this (unless you count Troy) so could be due a major comeback, I think the trailers and even the poster have that must see quality for the average moviegoer, it feels very much like an Emmerich end of the world disaster movie/I Am Legend and they all did huge BO, plus after about 10 years of profitable moderately budgeted R rated Zombie films (and a successful tv show, games etc) it feels like its all been building to this - the zombie film to end all zombie films - on a blockbuster scale (which hasn't been done before) potentially crossing over from the horror genre to mainstream

i just think its going to be one of those films that everyone wants to see and just keeps on making $ - a zeitgeisty thing that will catch everyone off guard like TDK/Avengers/Skyfall (even more so due to the bad wom, reshoots, delays etc)

so going to change original estimate to 400m US/600m overseas

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 28/3/2013 11:57:51 AM >

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Post #: 97
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 25/3/2013 11:37:49 PM   
directorscut


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Not.

A.

Chance.

The highest grossing zombie film of all time is Pet Cemetery with $116 million adjusted - and I'm not even sure that is a proper zombie movie. Do you really expect World War Z to make $300 million more than that in the US?

And aside from the Resident Evil movies, zombie films don't perform well overseas.

World War Z is far more likely to bomb than it is to make $1 billion.

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Post #: 98
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 25/3/2013 11:45:42 PM   
Rgirvan44


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 World War Z is DOA.

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Post #: 99
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 25/3/2013 11:59:14 PM   
Shifty Bench


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I must agree with Directorscut and Girv, WWZ will flop.

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Post #: 100
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 26/3/2013 8:21:04 AM   
thedrin

 

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 If a movie star is someone who puts bums on cinema seats, and not just someone who has been selling tabloids for years, then Brad Pitt is not a movie star. I can't see his involvement saving World War Z's box office.

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Post #: 101
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 26/3/2013 4:47:22 PM   
jackcarter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

Not.

A.

Chance.

The highest grossing zombie film of all time is Pet Cemetery with $116 million adjusted - and I'm not even sure that is a proper zombie movie. Do you really expect World War Z to make $300 million more than that in the US?

And aside from the Resident Evil movies, zombie films don't perform well overseas.

World War Z is far more likely to bomb than it is to make $1 billion.

wouldnt Resident Evil 4 be the highest grossing zombie film? (300m ww)

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Post #: 102
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 31/3/2013 7:57:07 PM   
jackcarter


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GI opens with $41m

$132m ww already - looks like moving it from summer last year where it wouldve more than likely gotten lost inbetween the likes of Avengers, SpiderMan and TDKR has paid off



< Message edited by jackcarter -- 2/4/2013 12:23:11 PM >

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Post #: 103
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 2/4/2013 1:16:40 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


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 Yes i'm pleased to see it have a solid opening. Part 3 is already in talks, so that's good.

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Post #: 104
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 3/4/2013 1:41:34 PM   
Judge


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From: Nottingham
 I think a lot of people are underestimating how difficult it is to reach a billion. WWZ doesn't have a hope in hell.

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Post #: 105
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 4/4/2013 1:42:55 PM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


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 it might reach a million, but never a billion

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Post #: 106
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/4/2013 11:41:43 AM   
jackcarter


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anyone else getting the feeling Oblivion will bomb? (well maybe not bomb as its still Cruise and worst comes to worst should still do okish BO esp overseas - but underperform significantly)

was watching Norton the other night and the way Cruise and Quantum woman described it and the clip they showed - it just didnt seem to come across well - seemed a bit silly. by contrast Olympus Has Fallen which G Butler was there to promote film looked and sounded awesome

estimating a 25m opening...


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Post #: 107
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/4/2013 12:02:50 PM   
MonsterCat


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

anyone else getting the feeling Oblivion will bomb? (well maybe not bomb as its still Cruise and worst comes to worst should still do okish BO esp overseas - but underperform significantly)

was watching Norton the other night and the way Cruise and Quantum woman described it and the clip they showed - it just didnt seem to come across well - seemed a bit silly. by contrast Olympus Has Fallen which G Butler was there to promote film looked and sounded awesome

estimating a 25m opening...




Clearly Olga Kurylenko made the quite the impression on you.

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Post #: 108
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/4/2013 1:55:20 PM   
jackcarter


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yeah i couldnt remember the exact name and couldnt be bothered googling

but in regard to Oblivion im starting to think that maybe most of the gritty looking 'original' SF films this year might under perform - After Earth (which looks to be as similar to Oblivion as any 2 films in one year type thing - Volcanos/Comets/Mars etc), Pacific Rim (despite the TF vs Gozillas draw), Enders Game, Riddick, even Elysium might not do that well.

Im thinking audiences wont be too up for dark depressing SF and focus more on the superhero films and sequels - and even if some are excellent they could get lost amongst all the other fun stuff and make a big loss


< Message edited by jackcarter -- 7/4/2013 3:47:15 PM >

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Post #: 109
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/4/2013 4:28:18 PM   
directorscut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

anyone else getting the feeling Oblivion will bomb? (well maybe not bomb as its still Cruise and worst comes to worst should still do okish BO esp overseas - but underperform significantly)

was watching Norton the other night and the way Cruise and Quantum woman described it and the clip they showed - it just didnt seem to come across well - seemed a bit silly. by contrast Olympus Has Fallen which G Butler was there to promote film looked and sounded awesome

estimating a 25m opening...




Since when does looking "silly" impact negatively on BO?

What do you see as the film significantly underperforming?

I see the film doing Prometheus-esque numbers, which would be be very good for the film.

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Post #: 110
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 7/4/2013 9:06:40 AM   
jackcarter


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quote:

Since when does looking "silly" impact negatively on BO?


Battlefield Earth?

quote:

What do you see as the film significantly underperforming?

I see the film doing Prometheus-esque numbers, which would be be very good for the film.


id say something like 80m US total. 150-170m forgien = roughly 250m overall.

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 7/4/2013 3:43:05 PM >

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Post #: 111
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 7/4/2013 7:44:04 PM   
directorscut


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You think a Tom Cruise led sci-fi movie is going to make less than John Carter and Battleship?

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 7/4/2013 9:16:22 PM   
MonsterCat


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

Im thinking audiences wont be too up for dark depressing SF and focus more on the superhero films and sequels - and even if some are excellent they could get lost amongst all the other fun stuff and make a big loss



I'm thinking you're underestimating audiences. I'm thinking you should be a studio boss.

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Post #: 113
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 7/4/2013 9:54:25 PM   
jackcarter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

You think a Tom Cruise led sci-fi movie is going to make less than John Carter and Battleship?


heh yeah...actually if either of those had had Cruise it couldve doubled the BO (esp Carter, and BS it wouldve been a return to Top Gun territory) but this Oblivian i just dont think its going to happen

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Post #: 114
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 7/4/2013 11:39:25 PM   
Mister Coe

 

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Does anyone else remember how badly that Reacher movie did? And that was based on a best=selling series of books... Oblivion has no such hook attached to it.

I suspect that the Cruise star is going out, rapidly...

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Post #: 115
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 7/4/2013 11:48:48 PM   
directorscut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mister Coe

Does anyone else remember how badly that Reacher movie did? And that was based on a best=selling series of books... Oblivion has no such hook attached to it.

I suspect that the Cruise star is going out, rapidly...


Jack Reacher did $220 million on a $60 million budget during a crowded Christmas period.

And the Reacher novels aren't exactly Harry Potter or Twilight.



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Post #: 116
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/4/2013 10:24:24 AM   
jackcarter


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i think with Reacher there was the backlash of Cruises casting. the reacher charcater being 6ft 5 in the books, and Cruise is almost getting on for a foot shorter - it was such a big deal in the media i think it turned people off. also at the end of the day it looked like it was just another (Cruise) action movie

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Post #: 117
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/4/2013 10:34:16 AM   
Timon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mister Coe

Does anyone else remember how badly that Reacher movie did? And that was based on a best=selling series of books... Oblivion has no such hook attached to it.

I suspect that the Cruise star is going out, rapidly...


Jack Reacher did $220 million on a $60 million budget during a crowded Christmas period.

And the Reacher novels aren't exactly Harry Potter or Twilight.




They are discussing a possible Reacher sequel now after initially dismissing it. The media really did a hatchet job on the film because of Cruise's casting, which was overly harsh.

I thought it was a nice little thriller. Really enjoyed it.

Early word on Oblivion is also very positive and after Ghost Protocol's massive box office, reports of Cruise's waning appeal are very premature.

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Post #: 118
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/4/2013 7:34:25 PM   
thedrin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

i think with Reacher there was the backlash of Cruises casting. the reacher charcater being 6ft 5 in the books, and Cruise is almost getting on for a foot shorter - it was such a big deal in the media i think it turned people off. also at the end of the day it looked like it was just another (Cruise) action movie


Nobody outside of fans of the Reacher books gave a toss about Cruise's height, and many of them didn't. Oh, and people looking for an excuse to not see a Cruise film.

< Message edited by thedrin -- 8/4/2013 7:35:43 PM >

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Post #: 119
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/4/2013 9:13:45 PM   
Mister Coe

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Timon


quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mister Coe

Does anyone else remember how badly that Reacher movie did? And that was based on a best=selling series of books... Oblivion has no such hook attached to it.

I suspect that the Cruise star is going out, rapidly...


Jack Reacher did $220 million on a $60 million budget during a crowded Christmas period.

And the Reacher novels aren't exactly Harry Potter or Twilight.




They are discussing a possible Reacher sequel now after initially dismissing it. The media really did a hatchet job on the film because of Cruise's casting, which was overly harsh.

I thought it was a nice little thriller. Really enjoyed it.

Early word on Oblivion is also very positive and after Ghost Protocol's massive box office, reports of Cruise's waning appeal are very premature.


Really? The Reacher film did that well? I thought the budget was way more than $60 million! And there's talk of a sequel?

Looks like I'm working with bad information, sorry. For the record, I liked the Reacher pic, not an absolute classic, but a fun film nonetheless.

One thing I'm liking about OBLIVION... they're keeping the big twists secret, despite the fact that's opening in a couple of days. Not like PROMETHEUS... everything was a secret until two weeks before opening night when they throw out a big trailer and much publicity that blew 70% of the plot...

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