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2013 Box Office Estimates - 24/8/2012 3:13:13 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
too early?

US/Overall WorldWide

Iron Man 3 (may3) - 400m/800m - has got to benefit from the Avengers success - dont want to say $1b but should improve big on IM2

Hobbit 2 (dec13) - US =250m /Overall WW = $800m - dont think people are that thrilled 2 films have been streched to 3 so sensing a bit of an Attack of the Clones stye drop

Superman MOS (june14) - 350m/750m - possible it could be do moderate Batman Begins numbers as its establishing a new series/take on it (which would also be similar number to Superman Returns - like 2008 action Hulk doing pretty much the same as 2003 arty Hulk) Then again its being promoted as an almost continuation of the Nolan Bat trilogy (in so far as 'from the director of TDK trilogy' on the trailers, the brooding mood, coming one summer after TDKR, using ‘MOS’ title - like ‘TDK’) so audiences should go for it despite any misgiving over the previous film (not that SR was anywhere near B&R levels of disaster) so going with Amazing Spiderman numbers.

Hunger 2 (nov22) - 400m/700m - if Twilight is anything to go by, the Hunger Games sequel should be even bigger, but by much? nah

Oz (mar8)- 250m/600m - this is obviously aiming to be Alice in WL big (well loved tale, 3D, March release, quirky big name director) and it could very well be but going with almost half (Alice was riding the Avatar 3D wave)

Thor 2 (nov8) - 250m/600m - similar to IM3, Avengers should give it a boost over the first.

F&F 6 (may24) - 200m/600m - fo sho

HO III (may24) - 220m/550m - more of the same. audiences cant resist.

Star Trek Into Darkness (may17)- 300m/500m - the 1st (or 11th) was very well received so should be bigger overseas, and maybe alittle bigger in US too.

Pacific Rim (july12) - 250m/500m - should be fairly big as no TF in 2013, but as Battleship proved thats no guarantee of big numbers, but should be way better than BS though as its GDT (and has giant monstors)

After Earth (june7) - 150m/420m - an M Night film dosnt count for much these days but its got Will Smith

Jack Ryan (dec25)- 250m/400m - think it will do well - better than the last Ryan reboot (250m adjusted). strong cast/K Branagh directing & its a xmas movie. also Americans might be wanting the return of their own Bond type guy to complete with Skyfall - esp after Bournes gone AWOL.

GI Joe 2 (mar29)- 200m/400m - Weirdly pushed back from summer 12. could go either way BO wise but going with better than first as Rock/Willis/Tatum (with now extended part?)

World War Z (june21)- 200m/400m - like GI 2, got pushed to this year. read its beset by problems. everyone should be zombied out by now (seem to have been going on non stop for 10 years since PWSA/D Boyle brought them back) but then youd think everyone would be vampired out too. impressive trailer. could be even bigger (as its PG13)

Wolverine (july26) - 180m/400m - about the same as Origins (adjusted). think audiences will be more excited for XM:DOFP in 2014 though

Mad Max Fury Road (? - looks to be 2014) - 120m/370m - similar to Prometheus in a way (original director returns after 30 years to influential SF series he started with new cast and C Theron - uncertain how connected to originals it will be) so maybe do similar BO. Rating? - prob PG13 (Thunderdome was PG13)

300:Rise of an Empire (aug2)- 150m/350m - not as big as 300 as no Butler. abit like if theyd done a Gladiator prequel without Crowe (and Scott). nice Star Warsy title though (i think one of prequels maybe Ep II, was long rumoured to be titled Rise of the Empire)

Oblivion (apr12)- 150m/350m - WALL•E Tom in Prometheus like landscapes wearing Mark Walbergs Planet of the Apes spacesuit and flying about in Trons ship and directed by the Tron guy. could be bigger. could be Cruise's Battlefield Earth. playing it safe with a so so estimate

DieHard 5 (feb14)- 120m/320m - will it be PG13 like 4.0 or R like 1-3? probably wont make much difference either way BO wise. But, will audiences will be that bothered? DH seems like any other BW action movie these days and there seems to be alot of them...but then it does seem to be the first big event movie of the year...

Enders Game (nov1)- 150m/300m - H Ford in another alien invasion SF movie based on a novel, directed by the Wolverine guy.i dont know about this.

Elysium (aug9) - 120m/300m - the District 9 guy with a strong cast so is expected to be very good. but again like the other original SF movies of the year abit difficult to say BO wise

Gravity (oct18) - 100m/300m - see above

Sin City 2 (oct4) -120m/300m - should be about twice as big as SC 1. everyone knows about SC now

Riddick 3 (sept6)- 120m/250m - this should be at least bigger than TCOR. maybe do even better as VD is a bigger draw now thanks to revived F&F, but will be R rated so maybe not too much

Lone Ranger (july3)- 120m/250m - think this will underperform Cowboys&Aliens/John Carter style despite Depp/Pirates director reteam. (but could be embarrassingly wrong)

Gatsby (may10)- 100m/250m - pushed from this xmas to next summer.

Jack The Giant Slayer (mar1)- 100m/250m - another fairy tale with a LOTR style make over...what decided we should have loads of Fairy Tale movies anyway? was it Alice in WL's $1b gross? (thanks to 3D)...wasnt even a FT movie!

The Tomb (sept27)- 70m/150m - the presence of 50 cent reminds me of Pacino/DeNiros Righteous Kill (would that make EXP2 Arnie and Slys Heat?)

Last Stand (jan18)- 50m/100m - Arnies comeback movie. but will audiences care? trailer seems abit STDVD. im sensing Colleteral Damage numbers,

Star Wars II & III 3D (sept/oct - scrapped?) - 50m/150m & 60m/200m - think the recent Ep VII news could impact these (Ep I 3D took 103m total)


(Robocop/All You Need is Kill - moved to 2014)

after being out by almost $1b on Avengers in the 2012 BO predictions, i wonder if any of those will be another crazy break out $b+ hit like Avengers/Skyfall? (seems to be 2-3 $b movies per year now so taking a bit of a risk saying none ) - i wouldnt rule out Superman, IM3/Thor2, Oz, or maybe one of the original SF films (After Earth, Pacific Rim, Oblivion) or even Lone Ranger (due to the heavy POTC connection)...or could it be something crazy/unthinkable like WWZ, Gatsby, Jack Ryan or Star Trek?

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 7/2/2013 12:21:28 PM >
Post #: 1
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 25/8/2012 4:06:20 AM   
Whistler


Posts: 3156
Joined: 22/11/2006
Maybe a bit early, but your list looks about right. I reckon Man Of Steel will make more than Catching Fire, though. World War Z has to pray it makes a ton of money after the problematic mess of a shoot. I'm really worried that it's going to be shit.

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Post #: 2
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 27/8/2012 12:41:34 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
yeah think ive jumped the gun abit - maybe come back to it next year eh. nothing to see here

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Post #: 3
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 12:29:04 AM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
it is time...

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Post #: 4
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 4:34:05 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
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From: The Internet
I think Robocop remake has been put back to 2014 so doesnt need to be on your list.While im on the subject though, id say it looks like it will be a big flop given that the suit looks ridiculous and there are massive reshoots and rewrites happening.

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Post #: 5
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 6:47:08 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

I think Robocop remake has been put back to 2014 so doesnt need to be on your list.While im on the subject though, id say it looks like it will be a big flop given that the suit looks ridiculous and there are massive reshoots and rewrites happening.

amended

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Post #: 6
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 8:30:34 PM   
Whistler


Posts: 3156
Joined: 22/11/2006

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

I think Robocop remake has been put back to 2014 so doesnt need to be on your list.While im on the subject though, id say it looks like it will be a big flop given that the suit looks ridiculous and there are massive reshoots and rewrites happening.

amended


I was so confused when I couldn't see a difference between CB's post and your quote, until I realised what you meant. Stupid me. I honestly spent a good couple of minutes trying to spot the difference

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Post #: 7
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 9:00:13 PM   
directorscut


Posts: 10891
Joined: 30/9/2005
quote:

Hobbit 2 (dec13) - US =350m /


Unless the film is a dramatic improvement over the first one, not a chance.

quote:

HO III (may24) - 220m/550m - more of the same. audiences cant resist.


WTF is HO III?

quote:

Pacific Rim (july12) - 250m/500m - should be fairly big as no TF in 2013, but as Battleship proved thats no guarantee of big numbers, but should be way better than BS though as its GDT (and has giant monstors)


It'll be lucky to get to $400.

quote:

Jack Ryan (dec25)- 250m/400m - think it will do well - better than the last Ryan reboot (250m adjusted). strong cast & its an xmas movie. also Americans might be wanting the return of their own Bond type guy to complete with Skyfall - esp after Bournes gone AWOL.


Not a chance. The highest grossing Jack Ryan film is Clear and Present Danger which adjusted grossed $232 million at the peak of Harrison Ford's box office prowess. And Chris Wood is no Harrison Ford. Also Jack Ryan is nothing like Bond or Bourne - he's an analyst not an action spy.

quote:

300:Rise of an Empire (aug2)- 150m/350m - not as big as 300 as no Butler.


Given that Butler is box office poison that's probably a good thing. But does anyone really care about 300 anymore?

quote:

Sin City 2 (oct4) -120m/300m - should be about twice as big as SC 1. everyone knows about SC now


The same. The hype for a sequel to this died down a long time ago.

quote:

I reckon Man Of Steel will make more than Catching Fire, though.


Not a chance.

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Post #: 8
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 9:49:29 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006
yeah probably right about Hobbit II domestic judging how Hobbit I is doing in US - amended.

HO III = Hangover 3

Ryan - saying more than usual for the Ryan series in part due to Skyfall, but also strong cast and xmas release date, but yeah may have over estimated US take there - we'll see...

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 1/1/2013 9:55:44 PM >

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Post #: 9
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 1/1/2013 10:19:13 PM   
directorscut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

HO III = Hangover 3





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Post #: 10
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 3/1/2013 1:17:20 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
US/Overall WorldWide

Hobbit 2 (dec13) - US =250m /Overall WW = $1.20b (I think the next film is going to have a lot more action and a massive dragon. There will be a US decline, but this will be made up abroad)

Iron Man 3 (may3) - 380/1b – This is going to be a monster. Much more than people are giving it credit for.

Superman MOS (june14) - 200m/480m – got a feeling this is going to be Batman Begins style business. A decent number, but nothing to write home about. If word of mouth is good, a sequel could then explode.

Hunger 2 (nov22) - 350m/780m – Awareness about the books has grown and the first one was a genuinely good attempt at science fiction.

Oz (mar8)- 120m/250m – This year’s John Carter.

Thor 2 (nov8) - 220m/680m – Should do well, but not Iron Man 3 well.

F&F 6 (may24) – 300m/800m – do not underestimate just how big these movies are. This is going to explode.

HO III (may24) - 180m/600m – last one was not liked. Audiences are fickle when it comes to comedy.

Star Trek Into Darkness (may17)- 300m/800m – last time the movie did well in the US but not overseas. WOM should change that this time. Trek has the potential to do a Dark Knight.

Pacific Rim (july12) - 180m/400m – Will do ok, but not great. It lacks the brand that Transformers brings with it, and the trailer didn’t exactly wow people.

After Earth (june7) - 140m/340m – Big Willy Style will not save this one.

Jack Ryan (dec25)- 120/240m – Bourne Legacy Mk 2.

GI Joe 2 (mar29)- 150m/300m – I do hope it does better than this…

World War Z (june21)- 100m/180m- a bomb the likes of which we haven’t seen for a long, long time.

Wolverine (july26) - 150m/350m – This could go either way.

Mad Max Fury Road (?) – 60m/150m – the last Mad Max film was 28 years ago. The last good Mad Max film was over thirty years ago. No one who spends money at the cinema cares about this film series, or its legacy.

300:Rise of an Empire (aug2)- 130m/320m – the trailer is what will determine if this is going to make money or not.

Oblivion (apr12)- 130m/400m – Tron guy makes a cold distant looking sci-fi movie. Thankfully Tom Cruise is there this time to help bump international.

Die Hard 5 (feb14)- 160m/320m – there is no chance this will be good, but the trailers have been fun and the action looks big! Can see a lot of couples choosing to go to this instead of whatever romantic mush is being served up elsewhere.

Enders Game (nov1)- 150m/200m – Book is well known, but unlikely to hit the Hunger Games audience.

Elysium (aug9) - 160m/300m – Got a good feeling about this one. Given that it was made for 60M, this would be a huge success.

Sin City 2 (oct4) -80m/180m – don’t think anyone cares about Sin City now. No one turned out for the Spirit at opening weekend.

Riddick 3 (sept6)- 60m/100m - this is going to be so awesome. It is also going to do Conan business.

Lone Ranger (july3)- 120m/200m – just how many John Carters am I predicting this year?

Gatsby (may10)- 100m/300m – Looks very good. But will it fit in the summer?

Jack The Giant Slayer (mar1)- 100m/200m – Singer is so confident about this movie he has run back to the X Men universe!

The Tomb (sept27)- 70m/150m – about right

Last Stand (jan18)- 50m/160m – I hope I am wrong.

Gravity – 150m/300m – Bullock will bring the crowds in. Sci-fi geeks are already there.


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Post #: 11
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 3/1/2013 1:42:39 PM   
Chronicle

 

Posts: 247
Joined: 30/11/2012
Curious to see what will be the big surprises like Skyfall this year

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Post #: 12
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 3/1/2013 10:52:49 PM   
JonnyFave

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 1/5/2006
I think Iron Man 3, Catching Fire and Star Trek are dead set winners. WB's Man of Steel and Pacific Rim are the big gambles. They could either be REALLY huge or massive flops.

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Post #: 13
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 4/1/2013 12:34:15 AM   
directorscut


Posts: 10891
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

F&F 6 (may24) – 300m/800m – do not underestimate just how big these movies are. This is going to explode.

HO III (may24) - 180m/600m – last one was not liked. Audiences are fickle when it comes to comedy.

Star Trek Into Darkness (may17)- 300m/800m – last time the movie did well in the US but not overseas. WOM should change that this time. Trek has the potential to do a Dark Knight.



If these four three things happen I will have a Michael Bay marathon of all this films.

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 4/1/2013 1:03:52 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
Care to put up your own predictions DC?

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 4/1/2013 3:20:06 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1876
Joined: 12/1/2006

quote:



Star Trek Into Darkness (may17)- 300m/800m – last time the movie did well in the US but not overseas. WOM should change that this time. Trek has the potential to do a Dark Knight.


despite the first ones success i still dont think trek will be that huge overseas where previous treks (including 2009s) have always suffered

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 4/1/2013 3:56:34 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

US/Overall WorldWide

Iron Man 3 (may3) - 380/1b – This is going to be a monster. Much more than people are giving it credit for.



I think you're right. I think it's going to be the top grosser next year.

I can see a few bombs and I think Pacific Rim, After Earth, World War Z and Oblivion could be the ones. Cruise will help make Oblivion internationally safe but I don't any of them are going to be massive hits.

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Post #: 17
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 4/1/2013 8:02:44 PM   
Judge


Posts: 300
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From: Nottingham
I can see Star Trek becoming the highest grossing of the year if the reviews are positive. Can also see Oz making a surprisingly large amount.

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Post #: 18
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/1/2013 6:52:10 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
Skyfall is now the biggest Bond film ever.

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Post #: 19
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/1/2013 6:58:54 PM   
matty_b


Posts: 14582
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What excellent and fully deserved news!

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/1/2013 8:12:10 PM   
MonsterCat


Posts: 7938
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I can feel the emotional anguish this news is causing the "DANIEL CRAIG IS A BLONDE THUG AND THE GUN BARREL IS IN THE WRONG PLACE!!!" wanker brigade.

Ah, this schadenfreude is soooooo good.

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Films watched in 2013

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/1/2013 8:48:00 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
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I expect Fast Six, Iron Man 3, and Man Of Steel to make a billion this year.

Expect Star Trek Into Darkness to be huge and do better than the first.Id say it will make about twice as much as the last movie.

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Post #: 22
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 6/1/2013 10:23:39 PM   
giggity

 

Posts: 292
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I think Iron Man 3 is the only film capable of making a billion this year.

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Post #: 23
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/1/2013 10:23:19 PM   
Judge


Posts: 300
Joined: 13/7/2008
From: Nottingham

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

I expect Fast Six, Iron Man 3, and Man Of Steel to make a billion this year.


I'd be surprised if any of those did. Iron Man most possible.

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Post #: 24
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/1/2013 10:33:08 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2362
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From: The Internet
quote:

ORIGINAL: Judge


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

I expect Fast Six, Iron Man 3, and Man Of Steel to make a billion this year.


I'd be surprised if any of those did. Iron Man most possible.


Fast and Furious series is getting more popular with every instalment.The last one was one of the best action movies in YEARS and made over 600 millon worldwide.I can only see Fast Six doing even better.

Superman is an american icon and the buzz on it is that it is going to be terrific.Even a bad Superman movie made 6 years ago did 400 million and the combination of the Nolan factor here will draw a lot of people in.

Iron Man is Marvel studios most popular character and coming off the back of Avengers will see this to be the most successful Iron Man outing yet.A billion dollar gross is more than possible.

< Message edited by Cool Breeze -- 8/1/2013 10:34:38 PM >


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Post #: 25
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 8/1/2013 11:45:56 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19053
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Nice sig Cool!

Very unlikely Superman makes a billion.

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Post #: 26
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 9/1/2013 1:25:15 AM   
Deviation


Posts: 27284
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Superman doesn't have the slightest chance of reaching a billion, Supes doesn't even have the modicum of love Batman has or any of the Marvel's superheroes. If it does I'll be incredibly surprised.

< Message edited by Deviation -- 9/1/2013 1:29:32 AM >


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Post #: 27
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 9/1/2013 1:35:55 AM   
scarface666brooksy!!


Posts: 3544
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From: The Valley of the Wind
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze

Fast and Furious series is getting more popular with every instalment.The last one was one of the best action movies in YEARS and made over 600 millon worldwide.I can only see Fast Six doing even better.

Superman is an american icon and the buzz on it is that it is going to be terrific.Even a bad Superman movie made 6 years ago did 400 million and the combination of the Nolan factor here will draw a lot of people in.

Iron Man is Marvel studios most popular character and coming off the back of Avengers will see this to be the most successful Iron Man outing yet.A billion dollar gross is more than possible.



I'd very surprised if the next Fast and Furious film cracks a billion. It will probably make a shit-tonne of money but the elusive billion won't happen.

I also have my doubts Man Of Steel will reach a billion. There are a lot of Superman fans for sure, but probably not enough to reach a billion dollars at the box office (at least ones who will go see it at the cinemas). And just because Nolan has his name attached to a film, doesn't mean it will make big bucks. It might draw in a crowd but still no.

Iron Man is the only film you've mentioned that has a clear shot at a billion. The two earlier films were very popular and fresh memories of the Avengers will definitely mean big bucks.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Deviation

Superman doesn't have the slightest chance of reaching a billion, Supes doesn't even have the modicum of love Batman has or any of the Marvel's superheroes. If it does I'll be incredibly surprised.


That's exactly it. Batman over the last few years has had three hit films, two incredible games, a heap of press coverage and a bunch of films and a cartoon through the nineties. Marvel has had a truck-load of their characters have films (Daredevil, Punisher, Spiderman, Thor, Iron Man etc.), video games, press coverage etc. What has Superman had in the last while? One of the worst ever games for the N64, one successful film and not much else to my knowledge.

< Message edited by scarface666brooksy!! -- 9/1/2013 1:44:59 AM >


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Post #: 28
RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 9/1/2013 8:11:28 AM   
DONOVAN KURTWOOD


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I can't see Fast Six, Iron Man 3 or Supes getting to a billion. Would love it if Supes and Fast Six did though!

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RE: 2013 Box Office Estimates - 9/1/2013 9:21:42 AM   
Olaf


Posts: 23709
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quote:

ORIGINAL: scarface666brooksy!!
quote:

ORIGINAL: Deviation

Superman doesn't have the slightest chance of reaching a billion, Supes doesn't even have the modicum of love Batman has or any of the Marvel's superheroes. If it does I'll be incredibly surprised.


That's exactly it. Batman over the last few years has had three hit films, two incredible games, a heap of press coverage and a bunch of films and a cartoon through the nineties. Marvel has had a truck-load of their characters have films (Daredevil, Punisher, Spiderman, Thor, Iron Man etc.), video games, press coverage etc. What has Superman had in the last while? One of the worst ever games for the N64, one successful film and not much else to my knowledge.


You guys must both be on meth if you really believe this. He might be easier recognised now because of a series of films but Iron Man isn't even close to being the cultural icon Superman is. He's always had and always will have more press coverage than Spider-Man, Daredevil, The Punisher (...) or Thor. To the vast majority of the general public, if you were to ask them to name a superhero they'd probably name Superman. And if there's a large population of viewers whose first thought when you mention Superman is the N64 game, I'll eat my cape.

Not that I expect this new film to make a billion dollars though - somewhere in between Superman Returns's gross and Batman Begins most likely, although it might improve on those two by having the extra income from 3D screenings (The Avengers surely wouldn't have reached that sum without it, so I'm guessing it's still viable). A few years ago I would have said so when seemingly any old shit was making $1bn, but ehhh.

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