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RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 14/8/2012 6:17:35 PM

rawlinson

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quote:

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quote:

ORIGINAL: elab49

It would seem a bit odd to get nods for a film that's not generally, I think, been seen as as good as its predecessor? I don't think summer fodder has got anything to do with it tbh.

Only slightly less well liked than The Dark Knight.

Yeah, but it still doesn't really have a due factor. Inception was out two years after Dark Knight, got incredible reviews, huge box office, still couldn't land Nolan a director nom. But I think the nominations it did get could be seen as a make-up for The Dark Knight.

quote:

I have a sneaking suspicion it might get in. I mean Avatar, District 9, Inception...Avengers got pretty good reviews, made a hell of a lot of money and I think there's a lot of goodwill towards it. I mean it would be fecking stupid but it is the Academy Awards.

If something gets in on those grounds then I wouldn't rule out The Hunger Games.

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RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 14/8/2012 7:08:16 PM

elab49

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Urgh - that's one step up from including Twilight.

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Post #: 62

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 14/8/2012 7:14:47 PM

rawlinson

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From: Timbuktu. Chinese or Fictional.

The Hunger Games was a surprisingly decent film, given how crappy the source material was. But I'd say it fits in more with the kind of film the Academy tends to fill up the commercial slot with. Strong reviews, strong box office, not comic book.

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Post #: 63

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 14/8/2012 7:30:56 PM

impqueen

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I really didn't like The Hunger Games.

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Post #: 64

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 18/10/2012 4:55:33 PM

matty_b

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Joaquin Phoneix probably not doing his chances of a nomination any good -

http://www.movies.com/movie-news/michal-bay-slams-hugo-weaving-joaquin-phoenix-blasts-the-oscars/9973

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RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 18/10/2012 5:13:38 PM

rawlinson

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From: Timbuktu. Chinese or Fictional.

I like a lot of his work, but he comes across as an absolute arse there. If he was so uncomfortable, why did he attend the Oscars when he was nominated for Walk the Line? Plenty of other people haven't turned up when they've been nominated.

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Post #: 66

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 18/10/2012 5:24:45 PM

matty_b

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Yeah, he does make it hard to use the 'seperate the artist from the art' argument. I like him a lot as an actor, but going on like that is just embarrassing.

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Post #: 67

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 18/10/2012 5:26:21 PM

rawlinson

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Yeah, and it wasn't as if Walk the Line was the first time he was nominated. So he knew exactly what to expect.

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Post #: 68

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 18/10/2012 11:58:59 PM

adambatman82

Posts: 11156
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From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: matty_b

Joaquin Phoneix probably not doing his chances of a nomination any good -

http://www.movies.com/movie-news/michal-bay-slams-hugo-weaving-joaquin-phoenix-blasts-the-oscars/9973

I think Phoenix gives the best performance of the year in The Master, but I don't think it was ever going to be an awards contender. To me the whole film feels like an anti-Oscar movie. It skirts with, but ultimately subverts what the prestigious picture is about, on more than one level, but particularly when it comes to the performances (even the very idea of having TWO showy performances was seemingly designed to split any potential votes).

That's not to say it isn't a good film, it is, it's the best of 2012, but it's just not the sort of film that wins awards like this. Argo on the other hand, is a complete mainstream awards magnet.

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Post #: 69

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 19/10/2012 12:01:17 AM

adambatman82

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At this stage I'm going with Argo. It plays so close to the prestige picture stereotype that it could be mistaken for a parody of those films. It is very good though.

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Post #: 70

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 19/10/2012 8:00:53 AM

matty_b

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Yeah, Argo does have the whole 'Hurrah, Hollywood saves the day!' thing to it, which I can only imagine will play well with voters. Not that that is something that concerns me - I'm very impressed with Affleck as a director so far.

I've also heard that Silver Linings Playbook is pure awards bait so I think that'll be strongly in contention.

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Post #: 71

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 19/10/2012 12:07:43 PM

adambatman82

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quote:

ORIGINAL: matty_b

Yeah, Argo does have the whole 'Hurrah, Hollywood saves the day!' thing to it, which I can only imagine will play well with voters. Not that that is something that concerns me - I'm very impressed with Affleck as a director so far.

Yeah he's great, and I'd love to see him recognised in this way. It's been a while since we've had a film of this ilk dominate the oscars too.

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Post #: 72

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 21/10/2012 5:51:57 PM

Beetlejuice!

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Updated predictions:

BEST FILM
Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Flight
Killing Them Softly
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
The Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck - Argo
Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight Rises
David O. Russell - The Silver Linings Playbook
Gus Van Sant - Promised Land

BEST ACTOR
Ben Affleck - Argo
Bradley Cooper - The Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Brad Pitt - Killing Them Softly
Denzel Washington - Flight

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Trouble with the Curve
Halle Berry - Cloud Atlas
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises
Jennifer Lawrence - The Silver Linings Playbook

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin - Argo
Russell Crowe - Les Miserables
Robert DeNiro - The Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Eddie Redmayne - Les Miserables

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Samantha Barks - Les Miserables
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Frances McDormand - Promised Land
Kerry Washington - Django Unchained
Jacki Weaver - The Silver Linings Playbook

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Post #: 73

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 21/10/2012 6:30:33 PM

vad3r

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Fingers crossed for Avengers, Safety Not Guaranteed and Much Ado About Nothing.

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quote:

ORIGINAL: horribleives
To paraphrase the great man himself:

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Post #: 74

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 22/10/2012 11:04:20 PM

adambatman82

Posts: 11156
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From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: vad3r

Fingers crossed for Avengers, Safety Not Guaranteed and Much Ado About Nothing.

Funnily enough I've just been notified that I'll be receiving a screener of this for consideration in the next few days.

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Post #: 75

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 30/10/2012 5:56:25 PM

HeadAsplode

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Best Picture:
Argo
Anna Karenina
Dark Knight Rises
Lincoln
Ruby Sparks
Silver Linings Playbook
The Master
Untouchable (The Intouchables)

Best Animation:
Brave
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
The Pirates! In An Adventure With Scientists
Wreck It Ralph

alts: Madagascar 3

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Post #: 76

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 30/10/2012 6:03:24 PM

vad3r

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ParaNorman deserves the Oscar.

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Post #: 77

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 9/11/2012 3:24:25 PM

matty_b

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From: Outpost 31 calling McMurtle.

Updating predictions as the critics awards are right around the corner. Winners in blue -

Best Film (Assuming there's ten - For this I'll go from most likely to least)

Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Silver Linings Playbook
The Master
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Amour
Frankenweenie

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
David O. Russell (The Silver Linings Playbook)
Juan Antonio Bayana (The Impossible)

Best Actor

Denzel Washington (Flight)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence (The Silver Linings Playbook)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Quvenhazne Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)

Best Supporting Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Best Supporting Actress

Jacki Weaver (The Silver Linings Playbook)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

< Message edited by matty_b -- 9/11/2012 3:26:01 PM >

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Post #: 78

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 9/11/2012 9:43:09 PM

vad3r

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Current critics RT and MC ratings for best picture candidates:

Argo - RT 95% : MC 86%
Beasts of the Southern Wild - RT 86% : MC 86%
Killing Them Softly - RT 97% : MC 77%
Life of Pi - RT 94% : MC 88%
Lincoln - RT 93% : MC 85%
Moonrise Kingdom - RT 94% : MC 84%
Silver Lining Playbooks - RT 100% : MC 84%
The Master - RT 86% : MC 86%

*RT stands for Rotten Tomatoes and MC for Metacritic.

< Message edited by vad3r -- 9/11/2012 9:51:16 PM >

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ORIGINAL: horribleives
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Post #: 79

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 9/11/2012 9:50:25 PM

elab49

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Adam and Dog," Minkyu Lee, director (Lodge Films)
"Combustible," Katsuhiro Otomo, director (Sunrise Inc.)
"Dripped," L�o Verrier, director (ChezEddy)
"The Eagleman Stag," Mikey Please, director, and Benedict Please, music scores and sound design (Royal College of Art)
"The Fall of the House of Usher," Raul Garcia, director, and Stephan Roelants, producer (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm)
"Fresh Guacamole," PES, director (PES)
"Head over Heels," Timothy Reckart, director, and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly, producer (National Film and Television School)
"Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare�," David Silverman, director (Gracie Films)
"Paperman," John Kahrs, director (Disney Animation Studios)
"Tram," Michaela Pavl�tov�, director, and Ron Dyens, producer (Sacrebleu Productions)

Short animation long list. From what I've seen (some in full, some trailers - the only two I couldn't find much of were the Otomo and the Disney) my guesses are

Otomo and Disney probably shoo ins, esp as the former is getting lifetime awards this year.
Fresh Guacamole
Eagleman Stag

not sure about the last. Usher does have Christopher Lee and they do like names the recognise but the animation is a bit like the games/animations of SF type stuff and didn't strike me overly. Tram excerpts were pretty awful, the Simpsons short is just OK (and there are better Maggie daycare episodes), Dripped's OK. So a toss-up between Adam and Dog and Head over Heels, the latter of which looked all about concept. So probably Sir Chris getting the nom.

< Message edited by elab49 -- 9/11/2012 9:53:22 PM >

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Post #: 80

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 5:18:33 AM

rawlinson

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Joined: 13/6/2008
From: Timbuktu. Chinese or Fictional.

Updated

Picture

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Flight
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
The Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Director

Ben Affleck - Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Actor

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Actress

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emannuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - The Master
Samantha Barks - Les Miserables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - Sessions

Original Screenplay

Amour
Flight
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Adapted Screenplay

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

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ORIGINAL: matty_b

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ORIGINAL: matty_b

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Post #: 81

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 8:52:41 AM

elab49

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There is no parallel universe where Bradley Cooper could ever be a serious Oscar contender, surely?!

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Post #: 82

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 10:23:39 AM

matty_b

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It's a very crowded field this year (as well as rawlinson's five, I reckon Hopkins and Jackman have a good shout of getting in), so maybe not, but I don't see why not and I'd honestly be pretty pleased to see him in there. I thought he was great.

No Hooper or Lee for best director, rawls?

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RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 10:32:29 AM

elab49

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IMO this years key omission that makes it games abogey would be Toby Jones.

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Post #: 84

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 10:33:07 AM

elab49

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And, even if I'm not convinced by the film overall, Denis Lavant.

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Post #: 85

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 10:34:44 AM

matty_b

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From: Outpost 31 calling McMurtle.

quote:

ORIGINAL: elab49

IMO this years key omission that makes it games abogey would be Toby Jones.

For Berberian Sound Studio?

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Post #: 86

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 10:38:41 AM

elab49

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Absolutely. I don't think the film was perfect but his performance was, for me, vying for my best of the year. There's one moment that just hangs on his face for a while - that's why you employ people who can actually act

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Post #: 87

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 10:39:15 AM

matty_b

Posts: 12862
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Yeah, he was great in it.

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RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 12:41:42 PM

rawlinson

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quote:

ORIGINAL: matty_b

It's a very crowded field this year (as well as rawlinson's five, I reckon Hopkins and Jackman have a good shout of getting in), so maybe not, but I don't see why not and I'd honestly be pretty pleased to see him in there. I thought he was great.

If Hopkins does get in and he shows up at the ceremony then he's a massive fucking hypocrite. And I'll laaaaugh. Cooper's picking up a lot of buzz.

quote:

No Hooper or Lee for best director, rawls?

I'm not sure where they fit as yet. But they could make my predictions once we start getting some of the critics awards in. Think it's New York on Monday.

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ORIGINAL: matty_b

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Post #: 89

RE: Oscars 2013 - The Predictions! - 1/12/2012 12:48:05 PM

elab49

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Which Lee (I'm blanking - I can only think Spike but I thought that'd just finished filming)

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Post #: 90