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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/5/2012 3:36:46 PM   
Rob


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I figure Prometheus's budget would be in the $150 mill region.

I think it's quite a tough one to call actually. Obviously loads of people on these boards, myself included, are really excited about it but then if you're posting on a film forum you're probably a bit of a film fan anyway! How it will fare with the populace at large though is another matter.

I'm going for a $50 million opening weekend.

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Post #: 211
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/5/2012 4:02:43 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18902
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From: Punishment Park
 My workmates, who aren't big film fans are aware of it and want to see it. Which is about the only gauge of interest I can see.

Think it will do 70m in the US opening weekend, and end around 180m in America/400m international

Alien movies have always made two thirds of their cash from outside the States.

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Post #: 212
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/5/2012 4:15:50 PM   
Rob


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Joined: 30/9/2005
I certainly hope it's nearer the $70 mill mark. I'm just thinking that it's probably not going to be as popular as something like MIB3 but I hope I'm wrong.

I haven't watched the latest trailers as didn't want to spoil it too much but of the ones I did see I think they've done a good job of selling it as a stand-alone film (which it is) but with enough hints and ties to Alien if you know what you are looking for.

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Post #: 213
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/5/2012 9:00:25 PM   
Cool Breeze


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From: The Internet
 Anyone think Prometheus will severely underperform or flop outright? It is a risky movie for a summer release and given that the early reviews are less than stellar, i wouldnt be surprised if it did.

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Post #: 214
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 1/6/2012 3:33:24 PM   
Spaldron


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From: Chair
 The fact that my local is showing more screenings of MIIIB and Snow White than they are of this, plus they're only showing it in 2D twice a day and only once a day for IMAX is quite disappointing. I think its got more to do with the fact its a 15 than anything else. I reckon it wont get to number one.

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Post #: 215
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 1/6/2012 3:35:15 PM   
Rgirvan44


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 It has already made over a million in pre sales. My screening in IMAX last night was sold out, and the 2D screening at 11 this morning was packed.

It will do just fine over here.

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Post #: 216
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 1/6/2012 4:21:02 PM   
st3veebee


Posts: 2354
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From: 9303 Lyon Drive
 Same here in Dublin. last night the largest screen in the Cineworld was sold out as well as a smaller screen showing they had as well!

Regardless of reviews etc, I'd love to see a film like this that is ambitious and isn't your factory line crap doing decent business at the BO.

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Post #: 217
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 1/6/2012 4:26:06 PM   
Rgirvan44


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 Yeah it isn't going to hit the heady heights of Avengers - but would be nice for it to hit 500m - even just so we can see what the bigger picture is!

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Post #: 218
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 1/6/2012 4:57:31 PM   
Deviation


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From: Enemies of Film HQ
 Didn't it break the record of midnight screening in the UK? That's pretty good.

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Post #: 219
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 1/6/2012 9:17:02 PM   
MonsterCat


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 My understanding of Prometheus is that while it's a flawed film, it is a genuinely attempting to be an intelligent and grown-up film (that's going by reviews, though. I'm going to see it on Tuesday), and I think that will work in its favour in terms of box-office returns. I doubt it'll give Joss Whedon sleepless nights, but it'll do fine and I think it's popularity will grow even further on the home video market.



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Post #: 220
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 2/6/2012 10:09:34 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18902
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From: Punishment Park
 So about Prometheus boxoffice -

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-prometheus-snow-white-uk-332235

It is 150 percent ahead of Snow White and MIB3 combined. Wow.

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Post #: 221
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 2/6/2012 3:30:52 PM   
Cool Breeze


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 Its early days yet though.It remains to be seen if it has legs.

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Post #: 222
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 2/6/2012 10:04:19 PM   
azzman1984


Posts: 423
Joined: 24/1/2011
From: Coventry
 Marvel's The Avengers has now grossed $1.331 billion worldwide!!!

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Post #: 223
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 1:47:54 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2411
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob

I figure Prometheus's budget would be in the $150 mill region.

I think it's quite a tough one to call actually. Obviously loads of people on these boards, myself included, are really excited about it but then if you're posting on a film forum you're probably a bit of a film fan anyway! How it will fare with the populace at large though is another matter.

I'm going for a $50 million opening weekend.


Damn I'm good!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

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Post #: 224
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 2:18:32 AM   
Spaldron


Posts: 10487
Joined: 6/10/2006
From: Chair
quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob

I figure Prometheus's budget would be in the $150 mill region.

I think it's quite a tough one to call actually. Obviously loads of people on these boards, myself included, are really excited about it but then if you're posting on a film forum you're probably a bit of a film fan anyway! How it will fare with the populace at large though is another matter.

I'm going for a $50 million opening weekend.


Damn I'm good!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/


And it got beaten to number one by a shitty CGI kids film. No doubt the haters will be using this as proof that its a shite film.

_____________________________

And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him.

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Post #: 225
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 2:21:33 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2411
Joined: 30/9/2005
One consolation is that it had a marginally better screen average.

It's not a bad start by any means but I guess it depends how it pans out over the next few weeks before any sequels are given the go ahead.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

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Post #: 226
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 9:15:08 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18902
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
 It is a pretty good start for an R rated movie at the height of summer. Fox weren't expecting it to beat the kids film. The advantage it has is that there is a couple of weeks where no real sci-fi movie is out. So should be something of a slow burner.

The film has made 100m, and that is before this weeks international has been added in.

The film itself cost £125m (which actully makes sense - it is a big film, but only really a handful of sets are used and minimal CGI) so it should be heading towards profit.

It is also a film that Fox will be re-releasing on home video 20 years from now and people will still be buying it.


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Post #: 227
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 10:15:12 AM   
jackcarter


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Joined: 12/1/2006
it might end up doing around $120m in US and maybe $200m ROW (forgien already at 91m) so could end up with ww total of around $300-320m (like Robin Hood)

its had the biggest opening of any Alien film (even in adjusted $), didn’t have that huge a budget ($120-130m)and was R rated, but 300m still might not be enough to warrant a sequel - especially with the mixed reviews and Scott directing Blade Runner for 2014 (so might have had enough of SF by then?)

Then again it could do some healthy repeat business (it does seem to be a film fans are wanting to see again - despite the mixed reviews), and since there isn’t anything of any real threat until spiderman on July 6 could avoid any big drop off (like Avatar/Inception) and do steady BO and end up with a Star Trek sized 380-400m ww or more, in which case a sequel would be pretty much guaranteed (in 2015 or 2016)

also the dvd sales should be pretty big thus increasing sequel chances

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 12/6/2012 1:23:19 PM >

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Post #: 228
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 10:15:18 AM   
Rob


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Joined: 30/9/2005
Yeah I think you're right. It's a pretty solid debut and is probably in line with their expectations so hopefully there's a few more films to come in this universe.

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Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

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Post #: 229
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/6/2012 2:01:29 PM   
directorscut


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The Hunger Games crosses $400 million...

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Post #: 230
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 12/6/2012 4:29:45 PM   
Rob


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Joined: 30/9/2005
So this week it's the turn of Rock of Ages and Adam Sandler's latest; That's My Boy.

Jack and Jill made $25 million in it's opening weekend so surely That's My Boy has got to perform better than that.

I reckon Rock of Ages will be around the $30 million mark.

Also I'm beginning to think that The Dark Knight Rises has an outside shot of the best opening weekend. I know I said less than a page ago I thought it had no chance but I'm slowly beginning to change my mind.

It's a combination of the frenzy of people booking IMAX tickets (I honestly believed it would take me 10 minutes to do it and that I'd be one of the few people that stayed up late to do so....it took me just under 4 hours) and some great new footage and TV spots.

Anyone else think it's got a shot?



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Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

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Post #: 231
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 12/6/2012 4:52:19 PM   
Hood_Man


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I wish we could see published ticket sales. I reckon TDKR could fill more cinema screens, but without 3D it might come close but not quite make it.

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Post #: 232
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/6/2012 10:23:10 AM   
azzman1984


Posts: 423
Joined: 24/1/2011
From: Coventry
 Top 15 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1402,3 million
2. The Hunger Games $648,7 million
3. Men in Black 3 $507,3 million
4. The Intouchables $349,9 million
5. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
6. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,6 million
7. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $309,2 million
8. Wrath of the Titans $301,8 million
9. Battleship $296,5 million
10. John Carter $282,6 million
11. American Reunion $229,4 million
12. Dark Shadows $204,5 million
13. Safe House $202,5 million
14. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $195,5 million
15. The Vow $193,6 million

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Post #: 233
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/6/2012 10:43:31 AM   
jackcarter


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come on Prometheus!! make some more $!

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Post #: 234
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/6/2012 11:45:59 AM   
Deviation


Posts: 26908
Joined: 2/6/2006
From: Enemies of Film HQ
 Didn't Prometheus surpass expectations for the first weekend in the US? It still has to open in Germany and Japan as well, which can bring at least an added 40 million.

< Message edited by Deviation -- 16/6/2012 11:49:02 AM >

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ORIGINAL: Dpp1978
There are certainly times where calling a person a cunt is not only reasonable, it is a gross understatement.

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I really wish I could go down to see Privates

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Post #: 235
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/6/2012 8:23:27 PM   
jackcarter


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Prometheus has 60% drop 2nd wkend - $20m.

now at 217m ww. id think would need at least another 100m to ensure a sequel.

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Post #: 236
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/6/2012 8:29:51 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 1633
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From: The Internet
quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

Prometheus has 60% drop 2nd wkend - $20m.

now at 217m ww. id think would need at least another 100m to ensure a sequel.


Thats a pretty steep drop off.For a big budget film like this it would have to do a lot more really to ensure a sequel.Wouldnt be surprised that all Ridleys talk of follow ups will go the same way as the proposed sequel to Robin Hood.Nowhere.

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Post #: 237
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/6/2012 8:42:38 PM   
jackcarter


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i dont think they were ever really planning a RH sequel - it seemed more of a setup for the legend, a standalone film that was meant to end with the audience going "ahh, so that's how it all started..." with the last scene almost designed to introduce a superior film made years earlier (hang on a second.... )

of course the same could be said of Batman Begins...only they went and made the sequel (otherwise itd have worked as a standalone pretty well...in fact i remember quite a few people thinking it was the prequel to Batman 1989!) and also Casino Royale, and even Star Trek 2009. so if RH had made about 600m and been universally praised there probably wouldve been a 2nd

anyway that aside Prometheus has a better chance at a sequel (so long as it makes it to 300m+) as it had a lower budget (RH = 200M, Prom = 120-130m) and was R rated


< Message edited by jackcarter -- 17/6/2012 9:09:47 PM >

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Post #: 238
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/6/2012 8:45:32 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18902
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze


quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

Prometheus has 60% drop 2nd wkend - $20m.

now at 217m ww. id think would need at least another 100m to ensure a sequel.


Thats a pretty steep drop off.For a big budget film like this it would have to do a lot more really to ensure a sequel.Wouldnt be surprised that all Ridleys talk of follow ups will go the same way as the proposed sequel to Robin Hood.Nowhere.


The movie cost 125m - which is half of what Robin Hood cost. It is currently sitting at 217m WW - should get to 300m by the end of its run. So it is already in profit and will have a long life as a title for Fox to release and re-release.

It is doing really well for an R rated sci-fi horror.

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Post #: 239
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/6/2012 8:47:18 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18902
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

i dont think they were ever really planning a RH sequel (although if it had done about 600m there probably wouldve been)
it seemed more of a standalone film that was meant to end with the audience going "ahh, so that's how it all started..." with the end almost designed to introduce a superior film made years earlier (hang on a second....)



By all accounts Robin Hood was a horrible shoot and Scott and Crowe fell out about it. The script was being written and re-written. Cast members dropped in and out. I am not a fan of that film, but it was hampered from the start and I am pretty sure even if it was a big hit (and it didn't do that badly) Scott wouldn't have gone on.

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