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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 25/7/2012 6:44:50 PM   
Spaldron


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Joined: 6/10/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DancingClown


quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron


quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

Bond hasn't been as big as Spider-Man since Connery.


Its likely Skyfall will do more as its in 3D and people are used to Craig in the role now.


Woah, woah, Skyfall's in 3D? Are you sure? I thought it was 2D Imax?


Actually you may be right about that, although I'm sure I read somewhere about it being in threed but I'm probably wrong.

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Post #: 361
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 25/7/2012 6:45:43 PM   
Spaldron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut


quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron


quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

Bond hasn't been as big as Spider-Man since Connery.


Well Casino Royale did $600m which is about the same as TASM.

Its likely Skyfall will do more as its in 3D and people are used to Craig in the role now.


That's a rather random comparison.

How about

Die Another Die ($432) vs. Spider-Man ($821)
Casino Royale ($594) vs. Spider-Man 2 ( ($783)
Quantum of Solace ($586) vs Spider-Man 3 ($890)



But we're not comparing it to the old Spidey films though....

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Post #: 362
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 25/7/2012 9:39:16 PM   
directorscut


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Why not? The "old" Spider-Man movies aren't that old. Spider-Man 3 came out only one year before QoS.

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Post #: 363
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 26/7/2012 6:50:27 PM   
Hood_Man


Posts: 11271
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It's Letterman's fault:

http://video.vulture.com/video/Late-Night-Celebs-Read-Mean-Twe#c=KZZ5V82KPXY5L4Z9&t=Late Night: Letterman Might've Spoiled ‘Dark Knight Rises’


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Post #: 364
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 27/7/2012 10:54:24 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2411
Joined: 30/9/2005
Sony has crossed the $1 billion dollar mark at it's fastest pace in 10 years:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/fasteststudios.htm

Also I'm revising my TDKR total. I still think it will do over $1 billion worldwide but I'm going for $450 million domestic



< Message edited by Rob -- 27/7/2012 10:56:07 AM >

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Post #: 365
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 29/7/2012 5:42:23 PM   
Hood_Man


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The Dark Knight Rises: $64 million 2nd weekend (estimate):

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=30&p=.htm

60% drop, $11 million less than The Dark Knight made in it's 2nd weekend 4 years ago.

< Message edited by Hood_Man -- 29/7/2012 5:43:44 PM >
Post #: 366
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 29/7/2012 6:18:03 PM   
Spaldron


Posts: 10487
Joined: 6/10/2006
From: Chair
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hood_Man

The Dark Knight Rises: $64 million 2nd weekend (estimate):

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=30&p=.htm

60% drop, $11 million less than The Dark Knight made in it's 2nd weekend 4 years ago.


I'm going to stick my neck out and say that TDKR isn't going to pass $1bn.

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And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
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And Hell followed with him.

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Post #: 367
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 29/7/2012 6:36:42 PM   
directorscut


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Depends if overseas will bump up enough to cover the lesser US gross.

BTW, the drop this weekend is deceptive because of the Olympics, which had 40 million viewers and hurt the Friday night grosses. It would have dropped around 50-55% normally.

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Post #: 368
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/7/2012 1:09:14 PM   
jackcarter


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been looking at the forgien BO for the previous Alien movies as Prometheus is still to come out in Spain, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, and Italy and was surprised to see how impressive the box office was in some of those particular countries - e.g 2004s AvP = 5m, 1m, 8m, 1m, 16m and 3m respectively, A3 and A4 were even bigger (A3s Japan take was 29m which = 47m today!) and even AvPR did quite well. so Prometheus is bound to do at least as well as AvP so that would be around an extra 50m when adjusted (perhaps more if A3 and A4 are anything to go by) so it could be on course for around another 50m-70m during august/sept which would make total BO between 350-370m

Prometheus sequel = certainty

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Post #: 369
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/7/2012 1:30:51 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18886
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From: Punishment Park
 I don't think it will hit that high - maybe ending around $320M? Still a pretty good result. The low budget and other tax cuts helped it.



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Post #: 370
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 30/7/2012 9:19:46 PM   
Gazz


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With Japan, Spain, Italy, Germany and a couple of smaller markets yet to open I think there's still a good $30-40 million left for Prometheus providing it does similarly to how it has across the rest of the world. I think the total is heading more towards $340-$350 though I doubt it will do more than that.

I also still think TDKR is on to break the $1bn mark. Although it's lagging a little behind TDK it's still pulling in 40% more than that film on the international market. And we're already at $540 million after 10 days.

< Message edited by Gazz -- 30/7/2012 9:21:47 PM >

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Post #: 371
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 31/7/2012 2:56:59 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1710
Joined: 12/1/2006
I estimated it only slightly higher than CR/QoS but i now wonder if Skyfall could possibly be the first billion $ Bond?

CR did $167 US/427m forgien = 594m (676m when adjusted)
QoS did $168 US/417m forgien = 586m (624m adjusted)

CR had the publicity of a new Bond plus the added bonus of being the best Bond film in decades, but QoS wasnt too great (everyone went to see it as CR was so good) but SF is looking as if its going to raise the stakes quite abit - the trailers look great (like a Nolan film almost) and then theres the Olympics thing being abit of a worldwide trailer too - everyone loving that. plus its the 50th anniversary.




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Post #: 372
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 2/8/2012 12:51:09 AM   
azzman1984


Posts: 423
Joined: 24/1/2011
From: Coventry
 Heres the latest worldwide box office earnings

quote:

1 Marvel's The Avengers

BV

$1,460.6


2 The Hunger Games

LGF

$683.1


3 The Amazing Spider-Man

Sony

$657.0


4 Ice Age: Continental Drift

Fox

$630.7


5 MIB 3

Sony

$619.3


6 The Dark Knight Rises

WB

$552.2


7 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted

P/DW

$501.4


8 Snow White and the Huntsman

Uni.

$385.7


9 The Intouchables

Wein.

$360.0


10 Titanic 3D

Par.

$343.6


11 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island

WB

$325.9


12 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax

Uni.

$324.6


13 Brave

BV

$310.9


14 Prometheus

Fox

$302.8


15 Battleship

Uni.

$302.8


16 Wrath of the Titans

WB

$302.0


17 John Carter

BV

$282.8


18 Ted

Uni.

$239.9


19 Dark Shadows

WB

$236.2


20 American Reunion

Uni.

$233.6


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Post #: 373
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 2/8/2012 1:12:08 AM   
Deviation


Posts: 26908
Joined: 2/6/2006
From: Enemies of Film HQ
 Out of those, Intouchables remains the most impressive for me. Not bad at all for a French movie that costed only 9.5 million Euro to make.

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Post #: 374
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 2/8/2012 2:15:00 AM   
vad3r


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 Whedon.




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Post #: 375
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 5/8/2012 2:12:47 PM   
jackcarter


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TR on course for 25m opening (it did 26m)

i notice the budget has been downsized from 200m to a more conservative 125m on various sites like BOmojo (where it was previously listed as 200m)

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 6/8/2012 4:34:59 PM >

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Post #: 376
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 5/8/2012 7:58:02 PM   
Gazz


Posts: 874
Joined: 30/9/2005
Prometheus now at $310 million + WW thanks to an opening in Spain. Still got 3 big territories and a few small to come. I don't think over $340 million will be much a problem for the film's final tally.

TDKR is now at $730 million WW after 3 weeks. Great stuff!!

< Message edited by Gazz -- 6/8/2012 8:11:28 AM >

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Post #: 377
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 5/8/2012 8:36:29 PM   
giggity

 

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That's cos it's only been out for two weeks

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Post #: 378
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 6/8/2012 12:15:32 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1710
Joined: 12/1/2006

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gazz

Prometheus now at $310 million + WW thanks to an opening in Spain. Still got 3 big territories and a few small to come. I don't think over $340 million will be much a problem for the film's final tally.


try 350m or even 370m

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Post #: 379
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 6/8/2012 1:03:02 PM   
Rgirvan44


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From: Punishment Park
 If it hits 360M then we really are in sequel-land.

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Post #: 380
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 6/8/2012 1:24:22 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1710
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

If it hits 360M then we really are in sequel-land.


its already been announced has it not?

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Post #: 381
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 6/8/2012 1:29:56 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 18886
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

If it hits 360M then we really are in sequel-land.


its already been announced has it not?


"in development" doesn't mean anything. A Tron sequel is offically "in development".

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Post #: 382
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 8/8/2012 1:36:05 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2411
Joined: 30/9/2005
Total Recall's start, poor reviews and word of mouth means that I'm probably going to be way off with me $300 mill worldwide prediction.

TDRK should still make over a $1billion.

Any thoughts on The Bourne Legacy's potential? I've going for $35 - $40 million opening weekend.

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Post #: 383
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 8/8/2012 9:03:59 PM   
jackcarter


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TR - may as well have just been a sequel with Arnold with an R rating and Verhovan directing again. wouldve had a better chance at the BO and probably pulled in a 50m wkend.
Remake = waste of everyones time

with Bourne (missed off the OP) im going to go with $70m opening with 250m US and 250m forgien = 500m.
the last one almost did that (69m opening, 442m overall). no damon but audiences love Bourne now almost as much as Bond and Renner seems to be the next big thing

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 9/8/2012 9:38:46 AM >

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Post #: 384
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 9/8/2012 10:16:37 AM   
st3veebee


Posts: 2354
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From: 9303 Lyon Drive
quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

TR - may as well have just been a sequel with Arnold with an R rating and Verhovan directing again. wouldve had a better chance at the BO and probably pulled in a 50m wkend.
Remake = waste of everyones time



Yup. What bugs me is that I like Colin Farrell as an actor and hoped that he had gotten his career back on track...and now this. Honestly, he has the worst agent.

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Post #: 385
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/8/2012 10:23:56 PM   
jackcarter


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TR on track for a 70% drop 2nd wkend - estimated $8m

almost going the way of Conan, Thing and Fright Night

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 12/8/2012 10:50:34 AM >
Post #: 386
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 11/8/2012 10:57:41 PM   
MonsterCat


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 Hopefully this push studios into making more original stuff but I doubt it.

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Post #: 387
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 12/8/2012 11:56:10 AM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 1625
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

TR on track for a 70% drop 2nd wkend - estimated $8m

almost going the way of Conan, Thing and Fright Night


When are the studios going to realise that Colin Farrell = Box office poison.

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Post #: 388
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 12/8/2012 6:10:31 PM   
vad3r


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cool Breeze


quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

TR on track for a 70% drop 2nd wkend - estimated $8m

almost going the way of Conan, Thing and Fright Night


When are the studios going to realise that Colin Farrell = Box office poison.


This.

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ORIGINAL: horribleives
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Post #: 389
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 12/8/2012 7:42:46 PM   
jackcarter


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Bourne had 40m opening - i was way out

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