Register  |   Log In  |  
Sign up to our weekly newsletter    
Follow us on   
Search   
Forum Home Register for Free! Log In Moderator Tickets FAQ Users Online

RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates

 
Logged in as: Guest
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [Film Forums] >> Movie Musings >> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates Page: <<   < prev  9 10 [11] 12 13   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:20:06 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
That's quite a high budget for something like this I'd imagine and whilst I think it looks pretty interesting if that figure is accurate I think it will struggle to make a profit on it's box office run.

I'll say $100 mill domestic, $300 worldwide total.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to st3veebee)
Post #: 301
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:24:10 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1863
Joined: 12/1/2006
TR - $30m opening. $80m US. $70m overseas = 150m ww total

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 17/7/2012 12:26:21 PM >

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 302
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:30:23 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2616
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: st3veebee

What about Total Recall?

Apparently a 200mill budget, withhardly box office gold lea in Farrell.I can smell a flop.


A 200mill budget? What the fuck? Where the hell have they spent that?! Certainly not on a cast or on marketing. That film needs to have the greatest visual effects of all time to justify that kind of budget. Jesus.

_____________________________

"I've got an idea for a special infiltration technique. It involves draining a man of his blood and replacing it with Tizer."

(in reply to st3veebee)
Post #: 303
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 2:04:00 PM   
st3veebee


Posts: 2353
Joined: 3/9/2006
From: 9303 Lyon Drive
quote:

ORIGINAL: porntrooper


quote:

ORIGINAL: st3veebee

What about Total Recall? 

Apparently a 200mill budget, with hardly box office gold lea in Farrell. I can smell a flop. 


A 200mill budget? What the fuck? Where the hell have they spent that?! Certainly not on a cast or on marketing. That film needs to have the greatest visual effects of all time to justify that kind of budget. Jesus.


It's the only budget I can find online, on several sites, but I haven't read anything official so you never know.

_____________________________

Latest Films:

Two days in New York: 4/5

Prometheus: 3.5/5

Abe Lincoln: VH 3/5

Twin Peaks: FWWM 3.5/5

(in reply to porntrooper)
Post #: 304
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 6:44:09 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2351
Joined: 9/11/2011
From: The Internet
When has Farrell ever headlined a smash hit blockbuster? Thats a huge risk to the studio who have frontlined him in this film which could be a box office disaster of John Carter proportions.

_____________________________

'' Iv played Oskar Schindler, Michael Collins, Rob Roy Mcgregor, even ZEUS for gods sake! No one is going to believe me to be a green grocer! ''

(in reply to st3veebee)
Post #: 305
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 2:01:46 AM   
Hood_Man


Posts: 12189
Joined: 30/9/2005
Box Office Mojo has released it's Forecast for the weekend:

Weekend Forecast (July 20-22)
1. The Dark Knight Rises - $214.7 million (new record)
2. Ice Age 4 - $26.6 million (-43%)
3. The Amazing Spider-Man - $16.7 million (-51%)
4. Ted - $13.7 million (-39%)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3491&p=.htm

(in reply to Cool Breeze)
Post #: 306
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 9:37:36 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
Wow. I seriously hope that's proves to be the case

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to Hood_Man)
Post #: 307
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 9:44:03 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
I bet that is a conservative estimate.

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 308
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 9:59:05 AM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2616
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield
Yet Warners themselves suggested they were looking at an opening of $170mill, are they playing it down, or is that more realistic given the non-holiday, Friday opening of a 2D movie?

_____________________________

"I've got an idea for a special infiltration technique. It involves draining a man of his blood and replacing it with Tizer."

(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 309
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:09:18 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
As you know I've gone back and forth on this sometimes thinking it's got a shot and then thinking it's got no chance of breaking $200.

I really, truly hope it does...I'd be delighted but looking at it from a purely logical stance I'm just not sure it can do it. Longer run time, darker, no 3D etc.

I think $170 - $190 is much more likely.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to porntrooper)
Post #: 310
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:16:45 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
If Warners are saying they expect 175m they will in reality be expecting a LOT more. It is never a good story if a movie makes what the studio predicted. They downplay expectations in order that when the movie does far more business and they can talk about an amazing, and unexpected box office haul.

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 311
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:29:28 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
Don't get me wrong I absolutely know why they've said that.

Also I'm trying to manage my own expectations!

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 312
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:35:26 AM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2616
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield
Well, although I dont think it will beat Avengers weekend/overall box office, it ceertainly deserves to. A seriously great movie and would be worthy of beating not just Avengers at the box office, but Avatar too. Having said that, it could make 20 quid and I would still be greatful for such a great flick.

For some reason, Box Office Mojo is blocked from work laptop, can someone tell me how Amazing Spiderman seems to be doing? Looks like it's had quite a drop off there...

What are the big releases for the next few weeks? Are there any, or does Dark Knight Rises have the luxury of a few weeks without competition? Is the next big release Total Recall? Cos that is still a few weeks off isnt it? Givent he reaction to that trailer in the last few screenings Ive been to, people seem totally uninterested. Another flop on its way?

_____________________________

"I've got an idea for a special infiltration technique. It involves draining a man of his blood and replacing it with Tizer."

(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 313
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:41:02 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
Spider-man is actually doing OK. 44% drop in it's second weekend and is currently on $210 domestic, $530 worldwide.

Next week the following open: The Watch (Stiller, Vaughan et al), Killer Joe then on August 3rd it's Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3. To be honest I don't see any trouble for TDKR until The Bourne Legacy opens on August 10th.

As for Total Recall - I think I've over-estimated dramatically but I still think it looks really interesting.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to porntrooper)
Post #: 314
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:57:47 AM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2616
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield
Ah, I'm looking forward to The Watch, I think it looks surprisingly fun.

If Spidey is around the 550 mark, doesnt look like it will clear any of the previous outings does it? Where did they finish up, around the 800mill area?

I think Bourne Legacy may do good numbers, good reactions to the trailers every time I've seen it in the cinema. Looks a decent extension of the original trilogy rather than a cash in.

_____________________________

"I've got an idea for a special infiltration technique. It involves draining a man of his blood and replacing it with Tizer."

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 315
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 11:12:56 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
Spider-man $820 million
Spider-man 2 $783 million
Spider-man 3 $890 million

It won't beat any of those but it's still a resounding success considering it's a reboot and especially considering it's only 2 weeks old and that following...

X-men 1st Class: $353 million
Batman Begins $372 million

I like the look of Bourne and think it will do decent business.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to porntrooper)
Post #: 316
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 11:23:48 AM   
st3veebee


Posts: 2353
Joined: 3/9/2006
From: 9303 Lyon Drive
quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob

Spider-man $820 million
Spider-man 2 $783 million
Spider-man 3 $890 million

It won't beat any of those but it's still a resounding success considering it's a reboot and especially considering it's only 2 weeks old and that following...

X-men 1st Class: $353 million
Batman Begins $372 million

I like the look of Bourne and think it will do decent business.


When compared to X-Men (a bit of a flop overall) and Batman (Basically an arthouse superhero film) then yes, Spiderman has been a success. However I don't see why it shouldn't have made close to a billion, should it have been a better overall film.

It's basically the first Spiderman all over again; so it's a tried and tested formula with great success in the past, released in a time when comic book films have never been more popular, a solid and well known cast, Spiderman is a hero known worldwide and beloved so the fanbase is strong and it had little competiton until now. Doing worse than Raimi's shouldn' be that acceptable..should it? I guess DKr has kinda overshadowed it..


I completely agree about Bourne though: really looking forward to that and hope it does well.


Bourne Legacy: around the 400 Mill mark.

Anyone know the budget?


_____________________________

Latest Films:

Two days in New York: 4/5

Prometheus: 3.5/5

Abe Lincoln: VH 3/5

Twin Peaks: FWWM 3.5/5

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 317
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 11:40:17 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
True but it is re-establishing the franchise and in many ways recovering old ground albeit with it's own spin. I think the studio will be pretty happy where it ends up.

When Spider-man came out it had cutting edge CGI, the first big-screen appearance of the character (although I think the TV movie was shown at some cinemas) and in many ways lay down a marker for the current crop of comic book films.

The new version is competing with the current crop of Marvel movies, a resurgent and all conquering Batman franchise, an a re-booted X-Men. I'm actually a bit surprised it's doing as well as it is.

< Message edited by Rob -- 19/7/2012 5:02:46 PM >


_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to st3veebee)
Post #: 318
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 2:19:46 PM   
directorscut


Posts: 10887
Joined: 30/9/2005
Sub $300 million for a Spider-Man movie is pathetic.

Taking into account inflation and 3D ticket prices, TASM will end up with less than half the original Spider-Man's attendance.

PS. Put me down for a sub-$200 million opening for Dark Knight Rises. It also won't catch Dark Knight's DOM gross. I see it getting around $480.

_____________________________



Member of the TMNT 1000 Club.

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 319
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:20:30 PM   
Spaldron


Posts: 10485
Joined: 6/10/2006
From: Chair
Remember though Avengers had zero competition on release whereas TDKR is following closely behind TASM (a more kiddie friendly flick by all accounts) and is up against a few kids animated films (always BO poison for the more grown up blockbuster) on both sides of the pond.

Remember, most parents would've taken their kids to Avengers when it was released, with the competition surrounding TDKR (and due to its more mature content) they'll be more inclined to see either TASM, The Lorax or Ice Age 4. That's where it'll hurt Warners, so I'm inclined to agree that it probably wont top Avengers opening weekend.

I hope I'm wrong though.

_____________________________

And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him.

(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 320
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:23:05 PM   
Shifty Bench

 

Posts: 15398
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Land of the Scots
Well, The Lorax was released in America months ago, I think its out on dvd already there (or will be soon) so it's only really over here that it could do damage. I doubt it will, though.

_____________________________

Extended Edition Podcast- Episode 46:Threads Of Destiny (Star Wars Fan Film)

(in reply to Spaldron)
Post #: 321
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:39:18 PM   
directorscut


Posts: 10887
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron

Remember though Avengers had zero competition on release whereas TDKR is following closely behind TASM (a more kiddie friendly flick by all accounts) and is up against a few kids animated films (always BO poison for the more grown up blockbuster) on both sides of the pond.

Remember, most parents would've taken their kids to Avengers when it was released, with the competition surrounding TDKR (and due to its more mature content) they'll be more inclined to see either TASM, The Lorax or Ice Age 4. That's where it'll hurt Warners, so I'm inclined to agree that it probably wont top Avengers opening weekend.

I hope I'm wrong though.


The (Not So) Amazing Spider-Man is not competition at all for The Dark Knight Rises. Batman will flick it away like an insect. The question is how badly will TDKR damage TASM!

Ice Age 4 - completely different audience and not doing great in the US by any stretch of the imagination.

_____________________________



Member of the TMNT 1000 Club.

(in reply to Spaldron)
Post #: 322
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:57:47 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1863
Joined: 12/1/2006
TDKR will turn up to spidermans party this wkend and eat all his cake and pop all his balloons before stomping on him whilst muttering 'insect!'

(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 323
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 22/7/2012 12:22:39 AM   
Hood_Man


Posts: 12189
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

TDKR will turn up to spidermans party this wkend and eat all his cake and pop all his balloons before stomping on him whilst muttering 'insect!'

Sounds like my 9th birthday party

(in reply to jackcarter)
Post #: 324
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 22/7/2012 2:47:25 PM   
MartinBlank76


Posts: 1306
Joined: 7/10/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

Sub $300 million for a Spider-Man movie is pathetic.

Taking into account inflation and 3D ticket prices, TASM will end up with less than half the original Spider-Man's attendance.

PS. Put me down for a sub-$200 million opening for Dark Knight Rises. It also won't catch Dark Knight's DOM gross. I see it getting around $480.


While I agree dark knight will (and quite rightly so) stomp all over this spiderman, I think spiderman is now up to near 600 million worldwide in less than a month. Thats not too bad considering (a) its not that great (b) it seems to be the forgotten man of the summer (c) A reboot of a film that only came out a decade ago.

_____________________________

I'm just a fella. I think beer should be cold and boots should be dusty. I think 911 was bad. And freedom? Well, I think thats just a little bit better.

(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 325
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 22/7/2012 6:33:57 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
Deadline reports TDKR will finish with an opening weekend of $161 million which is the best ever for a 2D film.

_____________________________

Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

(in reply to MartinBlank76)
Post #: 326
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 12:11:33 AM   
directorscut


Posts: 10887
Joined: 30/9/2005
TDKR: 160,887,295
The Amazing Spider-Man $10,887,111 -69%

Ouch. Batman DESTROYED Spider-Man.

Looks like Spider-Man will be lucky to limp to $260 million.

Compare that to Spider-Man 3's adjusted gross - $387 million - and that's without 3D prices.

Bet Sony are thinking sacking Sam Raimi wasn't such a good idea now.

_____________________________



Member of the TMNT 1000 Club.

(in reply to Rob)
Post #: 327
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 1:38:18 AM   
Spaldron


Posts: 10485
Joined: 6/10/2006
From: Chair
$249 Million Worldwide in total and its still got another 42 territories to open in between now and mid-August.

EDIT: It only made 2m more than TDK did so I'm guessing the massacre put a lot of parents off seeing the film.



< Message edited by Spaldron -- 24/7/2012 1:42:23 AM >


_____________________________

And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him.

(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 328
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 3:09:29 AM   
directorscut


Posts: 10887
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron

$249 Million Worldwide in total and its still got another 42 territories to open in between now and mid-August.

EDIT: It only made 2m more than TDK did so I'm guessing the massacre put a lot of parents off seeing the film.




Or people were more hyped about The Dark Knight than this one? I know I was.

The Joker is a far more popular character than Bane, which prior to this movie (and probably still is) fairly unknown to the general public.

_____________________________



Member of the TMNT 1000 Club.

(in reply to Spaldron)
Post #: 329
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 9:15:50 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
To be honest I don't think you can draw anything from the BO this weekend in the States. Apart from TDK everything fell by about 70%. No one knows is the answer.

Still a really strong start for the film - and I suspect it will be hanging around the top ten for a long time.



_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to directorscut)
Post #: 330
Page:   <<   < prev  9 10 [11] 12 13   next >   >>
All Forums >> [Film Forums] >> Movie Musings >> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates Page: <<   < prev  9 10 [11] 12 13   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Movie News|Empire Blog|Movie Reviews|Future Films|Features|Video Interviews|Image Gallery|Competitions|Forum|Magazine|Resources
Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.109