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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:20:06 PM   
Rob


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Joined: 30/9/2005
That's quite a high budget for something like this I'd imagine and whilst I think it looks pretty interesting if that figure is accurate I think it will struggle to make a profit on it's box office run.

I'll say $100 mill domestic, $300 worldwide total.

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Post #: 301
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:24:10 PM   
jackcarter


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TR - $30m opening. $80m US. $70m overseas = 150m ww total

< Message edited by jackcarter -- 17/7/2012 12:26:21 PM >

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Post #: 302
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:30:23 PM   
porntrooper

 

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From: Sheffield
quote:

ORIGINAL: st3veebee

What about Total Recall? 

Apparently a 200mill budget, with hardly box office gold lea in Farrell. I can smell a flop. 


A 200mill budget? What the fuck? Where the hell have they spent that?! Certainly not on a cast or on marketing. That film needs to have the greatest visual effects of all time to justify that kind of budget. Jesus.

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Post #: 303
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 2:04:00 PM   
st3veebee


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quote:

ORIGINAL: porntrooper


quote:

ORIGINAL: st3veebee

What about Total Recall? 

Apparently a 200mill budget, with hardly box office gold lea in Farrell. I can smell a flop. 


A 200mill budget? What the fuck? Where the hell have they spent that?! Certainly not on a cast or on marketing. That film needs to have the greatest visual effects of all time to justify that kind of budget. Jesus.


It's the only budget I can find online, on several sites, but I haven't read anything official so you never know.

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Post #: 304
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 6:44:09 PM   
Cool Breeze


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 When has Farrell ever headlined a smash hit blockbuster? Thats a huge risk to the studio who have frontlined him in this film which could be a box office disaster of John Carter proportions.

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Post #: 305
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 2:01:46 AM   
Hood_Man


Posts: 11270
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Box Office Mojo has released it's Forecast for the weekend:

Weekend Forecast (July 20-22)
1. The Dark Knight Rises - $214.7 million (new record)
2. Ice Age 4 - $26.6 million (-43%)
3. The Amazing Spider-Man - $16.7 million (-51%)
4. Ted - $13.7 million (-39%)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3491&p=.htm

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Post #: 306
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 9:37:36 AM   
Rob


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Wow. I seriously hope that's proves to be the case

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Post #: 307
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 9:44:03 AM   
Rgirvan44


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From: Punishment Park
 I bet that is a conservative estimate.

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Post #: 308
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 9:59:05 AM   
porntrooper

 

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 Yet Warners themselves suggested they were looking at an opening of $170mill, are they playing it down, or is that more realistic given the non-holiday, Friday opening of a 2D movie?

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Post #: 309
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:09:18 AM   
Rob


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As you know I've gone back and forth on this sometimes thinking it's got a shot and then thinking it's got no chance of breaking $200.

I really, truly hope it does...I'd be delighted but looking at it from a purely logical stance I'm just not sure it can do it. Longer run time, darker, no 3D etc.

I think $170 - $190 is much more likely.

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Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

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Post #: 310
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:16:45 AM   
Rgirvan44


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From: Punishment Park
 If Warners are saying they expect 175m they will in reality be expecting a LOT more. It is never a good story if a movie makes what the studio predicted. They downplay expectations in order that when the movie does far more business and they can talk about an amazing, and unexpected box office haul.

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Post #: 311
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:29:28 AM   
Rob


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Don't get me wrong I absolutely know why they've said that.

Also I'm trying to manage my own expectations!

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Same thing happened to me when I played Neil Armstrong in Moonshot. They found me in an alley in Burbank trying to re-enter the earth's atmosphere in an old refrigerator box.

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Post #: 312
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:35:26 AM   
porntrooper

 

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From: Sheffield
 Well, although I dont think it will beat Avengers weekend/overall box office, it ceertainly deserves to. A seriously great movie and would be worthy of beating not just Avengers at the box office, but Avatar too. Having said that, it could make 20 quid and I would still be greatful for such a great flick.

For some reason, Box Office Mojo is blocked from work laptop, can someone tell me how Amazing Spiderman seems to be doing? Looks like it's had quite a drop off there...

What are the big releases for the next few weeks? Are there any, or does Dark Knight Rises have the luxury of a few weeks without competition? Is the next big release Total Recall? Cos that is still a few weeks off isnt it? Givent he reaction to that trailer in the last few screenings Ive been to, people seem totally uninterested. Another flop on its way?

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Post #: 313
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:41:02 AM   
Rob


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Spider-man is actually doing OK. 44% drop in it's second weekend and is currently on $210 domestic, $530 worldwide.

Next week the following open: The Watch (Stiller, Vaughan et al), Killer Joe then on August 3rd it's Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3. To be honest I don't see any trouble for TDKR until The Bourne Legacy opens on August 10th.

As for Total Recall - I think I've over-estimated dramatically but I still think it looks really interesting.

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Post #: 314
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 10:57:47 AM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2497
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From: Sheffield
 Ah, I'm looking forward to The Watch, I think it looks surprisingly fun.

If Spidey is around the 550 mark, doesnt look like it will clear any of the previous outings does it? Where did they finish up, around the 800mill area?

I think Bourne Legacy may do good numbers, good reactions to the trailers every time I've seen it in the cinema. Looks a decent extension of the original trilogy rather than a cash in.

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Post #: 315
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 11:12:56 AM   
Rob


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Joined: 30/9/2005
Spider-man $820 million
Spider-man 2 $783 million
Spider-man 3 $890 million

It won't beat any of those but it's still a resounding success considering it's a reboot and especially considering it's only 2 weeks old and that following...

X-men 1st Class: $353 million
Batman Begins $372 million

I like the look of Bourne and think it will do decent business.

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Post #: 316
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 11:23:48 AM   
st3veebee


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From: 9303 Lyon Drive
quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob

Spider-man $820 million
Spider-man 2 $783 million
Spider-man 3 $890 million

It won't beat any of those but it's still a resounding success considering it's a reboot and especially considering it's only 2 weeks old and that following...

X-men 1st Class: $353 million
Batman Begins $372 million

I like the look of Bourne and think it will do decent business.


When compared to X-Men (a bit of a flop overall) and Batman (Basically an arthouse superhero film) then yes, Spiderman has been a success. However I don't see why it shouldn't have made close to a billion, should it have been a better overall film.

It's basically the first Spiderman all over again; so it's a tried and tested formula with great success in the past, released in a time when comic book films have never been more popular, a solid and well known cast, Spiderman is a hero known worldwide and beloved so the fanbase is strong and it had little competiton until now. Doing worse than Raimi's shouldn' be that acceptable..should it? I guess DKr has kinda overshadowed it..


I completely agree about Bourne though: really looking forward to that and hope it does well.


Bourne Legacy: around the 400 Mill mark.

Anyone know the budget?


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Post #: 317
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 11:40:17 AM   
Rob


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True but it is re-establishing the franchise and in many ways recovering old ground albeit with it's own spin. I think the studio will be pretty happy where it ends up.

When Spider-man came out it had cutting edge CGI, the first big-screen appearance of the character (although I think the TV movie was shown at some cinemas) and in many ways lay down a marker for the current crop of comic book films.

The new version is competing with the current crop of Marvel movies, a resurgent and all conquering Batman franchise, an a re-booted X-Men. I'm actually a bit surprised it's doing as well as it is.

< Message edited by Rob -- 19/7/2012 5:02:46 PM >

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Post #: 318
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 2:19:46 PM   
directorscut


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Sub $300 million for a Spider-Man movie is pathetic.

Taking into account inflation and 3D ticket prices, TASM will end up with less than half the original Spider-Man's attendance.

PS. Put me down for a sub-$200 million opening for Dark Knight Rises. It also won't catch Dark Knight's DOM gross. I see it getting around $480.

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:20:30 PM   
Spaldron


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 Remember though Avengers had zero competition on release whereas TDKR is following closely behind TASM (a more kiddie friendly flick by all accounts) and is up against a few kids animated films (always BO poison for the more grown up blockbuster) on both sides of the pond.

Remember, most parents would've taken their kids to Avengers when it was released, with the competition surrounding TDKR (and due to its more mature content) they'll be more inclined to see either TASM, The Lorax or Ice Age 4. That's where it'll hurt Warners, so I'm inclined to agree that it probably wont top Avengers opening weekend.

I hope I'm wrong though.

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:23:05 PM   
Shifty Bench


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Well, The Lorax was released in America months ago, I think its out on dvd already there (or will be soon) so it's only really over here that it could do damage. I doubt it will, though.

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Shifty said it best


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Post #: 321
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:39:18 PM   
directorscut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron

Remember though Avengers had zero competition on release whereas TDKR is following closely behind TASM (a more kiddie friendly flick by all accounts) and is up against a few kids animated films (always BO poison for the more grown up blockbuster) on both sides of the pond.

Remember, most parents would've taken their kids to Avengers when it was released, with the competition surrounding TDKR (and due to its more mature content) they'll be more inclined to see either TASM, The Lorax or Ice Age 4. That's where it'll hurt Warners, so I'm inclined to agree that it probably wont top Avengers opening weekend.

I hope I'm wrong though.


The (Not So) Amazing Spider-Man is not competition at all for The Dark Knight Rises. Batman will flick it away like an insect. The question is how badly will TDKR damage TASM!

Ice Age 4 - completely different audience and not doing great in the US by any stretch of the imagination.

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 19/7/2012 4:57:47 PM   
jackcarter


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TDKR will turn up to spidermans party this wkend and eat all his cake and pop all his balloons before stomping on him whilst muttering 'insect!'

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Post #: 323
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 22/7/2012 12:22:39 AM   
Hood_Man


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

TDKR will turn up to spidermans party this wkend and eat all his cake and pop all his balloons before stomping on him whilst muttering 'insect!'

Sounds like my 9th birthday party

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Post #: 324
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 22/7/2012 2:47:25 PM   
MartinBlank76


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quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

Sub $300 million for a Spider-Man movie is pathetic.

Taking into account inflation and 3D ticket prices, TASM will end up with less than half the original Spider-Man's attendance.

PS. Put me down for a sub-$200 million opening for Dark Knight Rises. It also won't catch Dark Knight's DOM gross. I see it getting around $480.


While I agree dark knight will (and quite rightly so) stomp all over this spiderman, I think spiderman is now up to near 600 million worldwide in less than a month. Thats not too bad considering (a) its not that great (b) it seems to be the forgotten man of the summer (c) A reboot of a film that only came out a decade ago.

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 22/7/2012 6:33:57 PM   
Rob


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Deadline reports TDKR will finish with an opening weekend of $161 million which is the best ever for a 2D film.

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Post #: 326
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 12:11:33 AM   
directorscut


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TDKR: 160,887,295
The Amazing Spider-Man $10,887,111 -69%

Ouch. Batman DESTROYED Spider-Man.

Looks like Spider-Man will be lucky to limp to $260 million.

Compare that to Spider-Man 3's adjusted gross - $387 million - and that's without 3D prices.

Bet Sony are thinking sacking Sam Raimi wasn't such a good idea now.

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Post #: 327
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 1:38:18 AM   
Spaldron


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From: Chair
 $249 Million Worldwide in total and its still got another 42 territories to open in between now and mid-August.

EDIT: It only made £2m more than TDK did so I'm guessing the massacre put a lot of parents off seeing the film.



< Message edited by Spaldron -- 24/7/2012 1:42:23 AM >

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And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him.

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Post #: 328
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 3:09:29 AM   
directorscut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron

$249 Million Worldwide in total and its still got another 42 territories to open in between now and mid-August.

EDIT: It only made £2m more than TDK did so I'm guessing the massacre put a lot of parents off seeing the film.




Or people were more hyped about The Dark Knight than this one? I know I was.

The Joker is a far more popular character than Bane, which prior to this movie (and probably still is) fairly unknown to the general public.

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Post #: 329
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 24/7/2012 9:15:50 AM   
Rgirvan44


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From: Punishment Park
 To be honest I don't think you can draw anything from the BO this weekend in the States. Apart from TDK everything fell by about 70%. No one knows is the answer.

Still a really strong start for the film - and I suspect it will be hanging around the top ten for a long time.



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