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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates

 
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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 4/7/2012 1:21:09 PM   
Dirk Miggler


Posts: 1106
Joined: 14/1/2009
I'm gonna put it out there and just say TDKR is going to finish higher than Avengers. Around 1.5 bill, probably just lower. I think the film needs to be very well recieved criticaly for this to happen but I've just got a funny feeling this is going to do silly numbers !

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Post #: 271
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 4/7/2012 1:37:58 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
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From: Punishment Park
The Dark Knight Rises is going to make silly numbers and without the aid of 3D. But once you pass the billion mark does it really matter which movie does better?

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 4/7/2012 1:45:01 PM   
Qwerty Norris


Posts: 3971
Joined: 26/10/2005
From: Edinburgh
I think TDKR will do more business than the Avengers in terms of bums on seats (I've never known a film to be screened at 5 in the morning for it's first showing), but the lack of 3D will mean its takings will fall a bit short than what Whedon's film took.

I'd love it though if it did the unthinkable & went into Avatar territory in terms of gross - but I doubt it.

Bottomline, box office takings mean nothing to me as long as the film is great, or very good at least.

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1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. No
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4. Behind the Candelabra
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Post #: 273
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 4/7/2012 2:25:31 PM   
Dirk Miggler


Posts: 1106
Joined: 14/1/2009

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

The Dark Knight Rises is going to make silly numbers and without the aid of 3D. But once you pass the billion mark does it really matter which movie does better?


Not really, I would be happy if TDKR grossed a pittance so long as it was a great film but obviously It would be some achievment if it could match or better the success of Avengers without the 3D price inflating the gross.

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Post #: 274
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 4/7/2012 2:29:41 PM   
Dirk Miggler


Posts: 1106
Joined: 14/1/2009
quote:

ORIGINAL: Qwerty Norris

I think TDKR will do more business than the Avengers in terms of bums on seats (I've never known a film to be screened at 5 in the morning for it's first showing), but the lack of 3D will mean its takings will fall a bit short than what Whedon's film took.

I'd love it though if it did the unthinkable & went into Avatar territory in terms of gross - but I doubt it.

Bottomline, box office takings mean nothing to me as long as the film is great, or very good at least.


I love to see good films make money though, Avengers was fully deserving of its success and hopefully TDKR can do the same.

< Message edited by Dirk Miggler -- 4/7/2012 2:30:23 PM >

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Post #: 275
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 5/7/2012 10:26:18 AM   
spark1

 

Posts: 6889
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ew has list of movies best performing during summer 2012 to date-

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/07/04/best-box-office-performances-of-2012/

< Message edited by spark1 -- 5/7/2012 1:31:55 PM >

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Post #: 276
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 6/7/2012 9:59:34 PM   
directorscut


Posts: 10881
Joined: 30/9/2005
The (Not So) Amazing Spider-Man is dropping like lead in the US and it isn't even the weekend yet.

This won't hit $300 million making it the first Spider-Man not to do so, which considering 5 years ticket inflation and increased 3D prices is pretty pathetic.

People were expecting The Dark Knight Rises to kill it, but it be probably be dead before then.

< Message edited by directorscut -- 6/7/2012 10:00:53 PM >


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Post #: 277
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 7/7/2012 12:23:25 PM   
spark1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

The (Not So) Amazing Spider-Man is dropping like lead in the US and it isn't even the weekend yet.

This won't hit $300 million making it the first Spider-Man not to do so, which considering 5 years ticket inflation and increased 3D prices is pretty pathetic.

People were expecting The Dark Knight Rises to kill it, but it be probably be dead before then.



deadline's estimate for this weekend-

http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/spider-man-debuts-amazing-7-5m-midnights/


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Post #: 278
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 8/7/2012 1:03:57 PM   
Qwerty Norris


Posts: 3971
Joined: 26/10/2005
From: Edinburgh

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dirk Miggler

quote:

ORIGINAL: Qwerty Norris

I think TDKR will do more business than the Avengers in terms of bums on seats (I've never known a film to be screened at 5 in the morning for it's first showing), but the lack of 3D will mean its takings will fall a bit short than what Whedon's film took.

I'd love it though if it did the unthinkable & went into Avatar territory in terms of gross - but I doubt it.

Bottomline, box office takings mean nothing to me as long as the film is great, or very good at least.


I love to see good films make money though, Avengers was fully deserving of its success and hopefully TDKR can do the same.


Touché. Probably the reason I was so excited over the success of Inception.


_____________________________

Qwerty's Top 10 of 2013 (so far)

1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. No
3. A Hijacking
4. Behind the Candelabra
5. In The Fog
6. Good Vibrations
7. McCullin
8. Beyond the Hills
9. The Place Beyond the Pines
10. Wreck-it Ralph

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Post #: 279
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 11:28:46 AM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
So here comes the big one. Any predictions for The Dark Knight Rises?

I've gone back and forth on this but I think ultimately the opening weekend is going to come up short of The Avengers.

I'm going for $190 million domestic opening but guessing around $1.2 billion total worldwide.

< Message edited by Rob -- 16/7/2012 11:32:26 AM >


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Post #: 280
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 11:31:36 AM   
MonsterCat


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From: St. Albans, Hertfordshire
5am in the morning?

Fuck, I'm actually quite glad I'm not working as a projectionist any more right now. Who would go to see a flick at 5am, though?

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Post #: 281
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 11:33:28 AM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
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From: Punishment Park

quote:

ORIGINAL: MonsterCat

5am in the morning?

Fuck, I'm actually quite glad I'm not working as a projectionist any more right now. Who would go to see a flick at 5am, though?


Unless you have been up at the cinema watching the previous two - makes sense then.

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Post #: 282
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 12:04:31 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2608
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rob

So here comes the big one. Any predictions for The Dark Knight Rises?

I've gone back and forth on this but I think ultimately the opening weekend is going to come up short of The Avengers.

I'm going for $190 million domestic opening but guessing around $1.2 billion total worldwide.


I don't see it hitting Avengers numbers, either for Opening Weekend, US Domestic or Worldwide. It'll probably finish up the third highest of the year I think, behind Avengers and The Hobbit. Both those movies will take more due to the inflated 3D ticket price, it can't really be avoided. Sure, TDKR has IMAX, but it wont be enough to compete with 3D.

I read last week that the US tracking figures were still below Avengers, so, looks like it will fall short. It would have to do insane business to beat Avengers. At the start of the year, I honestly thought TDKR had this years Box Office crown sat snugly on it's pointy eared head, no one really expected Avengers to take off like it did. That film managed to hit all the right marketing notes in the build up to release - it was everywhere! It then turned out to be a really good film, meaning word of mouth carried it and a buzz built around it. That and the 3D prices mean it's pretty untouchable for the year. Only Hobbit stands a chance I think, if that movie is good and marketed well, it could give it Avengers a close run, but I've got a feeling it may fall short in terms of quality and wont carry as much buzz through word of mouth.

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Post #: 283
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 12:28:11 PM   
Cool Breeze


Posts: 2344
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From: The Internet
The Dark Knight didnt need 3D to make over a billion did it? Im gonna predict that its going to have the biggest opening weekend EVER but will fall slightly short of The Avengers haul due to the films length and less time to play over the rest of the summer than Avengers.Word of mouth on TDKR is stellar though so you never know it may actually end up beating Avengers.Its got a lot going for based on the sheer good will towards the first two movies in the series and Chris Nolans name alone is one of the few guarenteed director draws for audiences along with Speilberg and Cameron.

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 1:40:18 PM   
Hood_Man


Posts: 12151
Joined: 30/9/2005
I'm saying $185 million opening, and about $600 million in the US, and $1.2 billion worldwide.

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Post #: 285
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 1:50:12 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
200M opening in America - 250M opening WW and overall 1.4B

I think people are underestimating how The Dark Knight hit the four quads. Not to mention there is no real heavy hitter of a film for nearly a month.

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Post #: 286
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 1:56:15 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

200M opening in America - 250M opening WW and overall 1.4B

I think people are underestimating how The Dark Knight hit the four quads. Not to mention there is no real heavy hitter of a film for nearly a month.


I hope you're right and there does seem to be a perfect storm of hype, good reviews, anticipation etc but I think it's going to fall short of the $200 mill opening mark.

Does anyone know if it's going to be released in China as the last one wasn't?

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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 2:05:01 PM   
jackcarter


Posts: 1859
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going to go with a 220m openin wkend (US)

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Post #: 288
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 2:13:12 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2608
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield
What was Avengers opening weekend haul in the US and Worldwide? Anyone know? For some reason Box Office Mojo is coming up blocked on my work laptop. Odd.

Anyway, wasn't Avengers released over a holiday weekend in the States, pretty sure Rises isn't, and holiday weekends tend to yield bigger box office. Also, didnt it have a longer opening weekend, releasing on a Wednesday or Thursday? If I'm right, and Avengers did release over a holiday weekend, it's just one more reason to think Rises can't overtake that haul. Don't get me wrong, Rises will take a huge amount and do great business, I just don't think it will be top come the end of the year, I think Avengers and Hobbit will be fighting that one out.

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Post #: 289
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 2:17:08 PM   
Timbzy


Posts: 183
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Going with the fact that the amount of money a film makes doesn't matter and almost all quality films haven't had anywhere near the budget that these blockbusters have.

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Post #: 290
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 2:30:07 PM   
Rob


Posts: 2473
Joined: 30/9/2005
quote:

ORIGINAL: porntrooper

What was Avengers opening weekend haul in the US and Worldwide? Anyone know? For some reason Box Office Mojo is coming up blocked on my work laptop. Odd.

Anyway, wasn't Avengers released over a holiday weekend in the States, pretty sure Rises isn't, and holiday weekends tend to yield bigger box office. Also, didnt it have a longer opening weekend, releasing on a Wednesday or Thursday? If I'm right, and Avengers did release over a holiday weekend, it's just one more reason to think Rises can't overtake that haul. Don't get me wrong, Rises will take a huge amount and do great business, I just don't think it will be top come the end of the year, I think Avengers and Hobbit will be fighting that one out.


$207 million and I don't think it was a holiday weekend but I could be wrong.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Timbzy

Going with the fact that the amount of money a film makes doesn't matter and almost all quality films haven't had anywhere near the budget that these blockbusters have.


No one is saying that it does. However, there are a large number of people who enjoying discussing a film's box office even if we all realise that a film's quality is not measured in pounds and dollars. Also with something like The Dark Knight Rises it feels, and I'm aware that this is ridiculous, that I have more of a personal stake because I want it to do well and I love Batman.

< Message edited by Rob -- 16/7/2012 2:31:00 PM >


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RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 2:34:02 PM   
Timbzy


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I wasn't saying that people were saying it matters. I was just voicing my opinion on the issue. I love certain comic characters too, but the way in which films wreck them, it not something I look forward too.

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Post #: 292
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 2:54:23 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2608
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: Timbzy

I wasn't saying that people were saying it matters. I was just voicing my opinion on the issue. I love certain comic characters too, but the way in which films wreck them, it not something I look forward too.



I think the current discussion of Dark Knight Rises vs Avengers box office is largely fuelled because these franchises are the ones that are (arguably, of course) translating to film sucessfully. They're not being wrecked in the transition from page to screen.

I also don't understand this part of your previous post - "almost all quality films haven't had anywhere near the budget that these blockbusters have"

Are you saying that the best quality films use smaller budgets? I may be missing something from the post, but I don't get your point, can you clarify? I dont think a films budget has any correlation to it's quality, in the same way it's overall takings dont.

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Post #: 293
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 3:13:47 PM   
Timbzy


Posts: 183
Joined: 30/6/2012
I disagree about the quality of the films being made using DC/Marvel comic sources. It is probably because in the comic medium, the whole superhero action thing works, but it isn't really what I'm looking to get out of a film. That said, comic book films aren't all bad. American Splendor, The Crow, Ghost World, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, The Extraordinary Adventures of Adèle Blanc-Sec, Persepolis and Road to Perdition were great.

Most big budget blockbusters are ultimately awful films is what I am saying.

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Post #: 294
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 3:23:06 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2608
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: Timbzy

I disagree about the quality of the films being made using DC/Marvel comic sources. It is probably because in the comic medium, the whole superhero action thing works, but it isn't really what I'm looking to get out of a film. That said, comic book films aren't all bad. American Splendor, The Crow, Ghost World, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, The Extraordinary Adventures of Adèle Blanc-Sec, Persepolis and Road to Perdition were great.

Most big budget blockbusters are ultimately awful films is what I am saying.


Thats fair enough, and it's why I said these films were arguably being translated to the screen well. Of course people will have their own subjective opinion on any individual films quality, be it a comic book movie or not.

I was more interested in the quote suggesting a lower budget leads to a better quality film - "almost all quality films haven't had anywhere near the budget that these blockbusters have". I disagree with that, there is no link between a films budget and it's overall quality.


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Post #: 295
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 3:30:23 PM   
Timbzy


Posts: 183
Joined: 30/6/2012
I said most good films are made with a smaller budget than the blockbusters that are garbage. I didn't say that just because a film has a lower budget, it is a better film. It is my opinion that big expensive blockbusters almost never deliver the goods, therefore most films I enjoy are made on a smaller budget than those big blockbusters.

Don't think I can explain it any other way.

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Post #: 296
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 3:46:09 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2608
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: Timbzy

I said most good films are made with a smaller budget than the blockbusters that are garbage. I didn't say that just because a film has a lower budget, it is a better film. It is my opinion that big expensive blockbusters almost never deliver the goods, therefore most films I enjoy are made on a smaller budget than those big blockbusters.

Don't think I can explain it any other way.


I appreciate what you're getting at, but...

"I said most good films are made with a smaller budget than the blockbusters that are garbage."
"almost all quality films haven't had anywhere near the budget that these blockbusters have".

Those quotes kinda amke it look like you're say that smaller budget films are better in quality than big budget films. My point was the budget has no impact on the quality of a film, be it large or small. You're opinion on a films quality isn't decided by its budget either is it? It's surely coincidental that the films you enjoy are lower budget. If The Crow or Ghost World had cost 120 million to make, you would enjoy it all the same, yes?

Likewise, a film making 1.5 billion at the box office isn't an indicator of it's quality.





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Post #: 297
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 3:47:37 PM   
Timbzy


Posts: 183
Joined: 30/6/2012
You can interpret it the way you like. I'm over trying to explain it to you because I am starting to think you're trolling the new guy.

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Post #: 298
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 16/7/2012 4:12:40 PM   
porntrooper

 

Posts: 2608
Joined: 6/9/2006
From: Sheffield

quote:

ORIGINAL: Timbzy

You can interpret it the way you like. I'm over trying to explain it to you because I am starting to think you're trolling the new guy.


If you thought that, you're wrong. I'm simply interpreting it the way it was written, the way it came across. I didnt even realise you're a 'new guy', it isn't something that registers on my radar when posting on the forums, I don't care if you're here two days or two decades. I was simply asking for clarity on a point you made, and responding to it.

On topic, does anyone know how TDKR is tracking at the moment? As mentioned in a previous post, it was tracking below Avengers the other week but as marketing seems to have ramped up it may have increased. At the cinema this weekend there were a lot of kids running around pointing at the Batman posters and stuff, and it did get me wondering if parents will be taking the lil 'uns to this one? I know The Dark Knight got some flack for being pretty dark tonally, and it certainly doesn't come over in trailers/ads as the light in tone family friendly adventure that Marvel movies have done. Another reason to believe Rises may fall short of Avengers?

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Post #: 299
RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates - 17/7/2012 12:13:25 PM   
st3veebee


Posts: 2353
Joined: 3/9/2006
From: 9303 Lyon Drive
What about Total Recall? 

Apparently a 200mill budget, with hardly box office gold lea in Farrell. I can smell a flop. 

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