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RE: I(owa) Heart Huckabee

 
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RE: I(owa) Heart Huckabee - 4/1/2008 10:13:12 AM   
timomouse


Posts: 833
Joined: 12/3/2006
quote:

ORIGINAL: Manchurian candidate


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chief Wiggum


So Obama's got the nod, no real surprise there, but Hilary into third, that was a bit of a shock.

on the republican side, Mike Huckabee? I may be entirely wrong, but isn't he a creationist from Arkansas.


...sorry.

I know, although, he doesn't stand a chance out of the deep south, and he'd get truncated by pretty much anyone if he were to run in the general election, hell, even Nader would stand a chance against him! Also, his creationist views are bound to alienate many, particularly independents.




And this: http://thinkprogress.org/2007/11/29/huckabee-phone-call-with-god/



(in reply to Manchurian candidate)
Post #: 181
RE: I(owa) Heart Huckabee - 4/1/2008 10:19:00 AM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis


Really, only one thing comes to mind here- What the hell? Really, since when was it up to him to decide what political party, let alone candidate, "god" supports? He comes across as slightly bonkers really, (or incredibly manipulative).

And whilst we're talking about bonkers, here's a prime example of the Clinton Cackle(TM)

- http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=103274&title=hillarys-laugh-track&tag=generic_tag_hillary_clinton&itemId=104903

< Message edited by Manchurian candidate -- 4/1/2008 12:16:56 PM >


_____________________________

"Ford's economics are the worst thing that's happened to this country since pantyhose ruined finger-fucking."
Lyndon B. Johnson
"British Beatitudes! … Beer, beef, business, bibles, bulldogs, battleships, buggery and bishops"
-Ulysses, By James Joyce
"Rose McGowan is a fucking clown"
-Harry Lime
"Who's Keith"
- Rhubarb

(in reply to timomouse)
Post #: 182
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 3:39:06 PM   
Dirty Hartigan


Posts: 5890
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Manchester
quote:

ORIGINAL: Manchurian candidate

I'd never of expected him (Edwards, that is)to beat Clinton.



The BBC analyst mentioned last night that Edwards has been living in Iowa for the last year so anything less than second would have been a massive failure for him. And the shockingly knowledgeable LB Jeffries already mentioned his Iowa campaigan was the best organised of the three.

Still, even though I was hoping for it, I can hardly believe Obama's done it!


(in reply to Manchurian candidate)
Post #: 183
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 3:46:06 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
I did not expect to see a 7% lead for Obama, considering how close this race has been that is a massive lead.

Clintons campagin office must be feeling awfully cold today.

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Dirty Hartigan)
Post #: 184
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 3:57:30 PM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis
quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

I did not expect to see a 7% lead for Obama, considering how close this race has been that is a massive lead.

Clintons campagin office must be feeling awfully cold today.



Third! Simply awesome.

Still hoping for a Edwards/Obama ticket, but I can't say I really mind who gets top billing.



_____________________________

"Ford's economics are the worst thing that's happened to this country since pantyhose ruined finger-fucking."
Lyndon B. Johnson
"British Beatitudes! … Beer, beef, business, bibles, bulldogs, battleships, buggery and bishops"
-Ulysses, By James Joyce
"Rose McGowan is a fucking clown"
-Harry Lime
"Who's Keith"
- Rhubarb

(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 185
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 4:57:47 PM   
Rgirvan44


Posts: 19049
Joined: 10/3/2006
From: Punishment Park
I cannot for the life of me ever see a President Huckabee in office.

How could you not start laughing everytime you saw his name in the paper?

_____________________________

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.


(in reply to Manchurian candidate)
Post #: 186
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 5:05:44 PM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis
quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

I cannot for the life of me ever see a President Huckabee in office.

How could you not start laughing everytime you saw his name in the paper?


Seeing as how he has god's phone number, and support, the possibilities are endless, in fact, I can imagine Huck easily securing the Republican nom, them cruising to victory with a Huckabee/Jesus '08 ticket.

Although, compared to most Republicans, (and some Democrats), Huckabee's immagration policies seem reasonable, if vague. Apart from that, however, he comes across as a small-minded, gun-toting fruitcake. He's also scarily homophobic, "homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk.", and in '92 advocated casting (literally) AIDs victims out of normal society. (Although he's since retracted this).

: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17045509


< Message edited by Manchurian candidate -- 4/1/2008 5:32:08 PM >


_____________________________

"Ford's economics are the worst thing that's happened to this country since pantyhose ruined finger-fucking."
Lyndon B. Johnson
"British Beatitudes! … Beer, beef, business, bibles, bulldogs, battleships, buggery and bishops"
-Ulysses, By James Joyce
"Rose McGowan is a fucking clown"
-Harry Lime
"Who's Keith"
- Rhubarb

(in reply to Rgirvan44)
Post #: 187
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 6:27:51 PM   
Fluke Skywalker


Posts: 9540
Joined: 23/4/2006
From: the dark side of the sun
What are people's views on the dodgy voting machines? I wouldn't be suprised if they fixed the last US election. I have a sick feeling we are going to see the party of satan himself get in again - the Republicunts

(in reply to Manchurian candidate)
Post #: 188
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 6:52:07 PM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
An interesting stat from last nights caucuses:

Total Voter Turnout (approximate) 356,000

Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama (D)
20.5% Edwards (D)
19.8% Clinton (D)
11.4% Huckabee (R)


Bad news for the Republican Party's hopes in the general election if other states primaries show a similiar percentage of votes going to Dem candidates.

_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

(in reply to Fluke Skywalker)
Post #: 189
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 8:29:18 PM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
Latest CNN polling - Presidential election match-ups:

OBAMA
v Guiliani +7%
v Romney +13%
v Huckabee +15%
v McCain 0%

EDWARDS
v Guiliani +9%
v Romney +22%
v Huckabee +25%
v McCain +8%

CLINTON
v Guiliani +6%
v Romney +11%
v Huckabee +10%
v McCain -2%

Edwards is still the most electable Democrat in the race (a position he has held throughout the campaign). While Clinton and Obama are both in statistical ties with McCain, Edwards holds a whopping 8-point lead. This is significant as McCain is surging right now (he's just overtook Romney in New Hampshire) and looks like the candidate Republicans may rally around to stop Huckabee (who is totally unelectable in the general). Unfortunately, I don't believe Edwards can win the nomination and can't see him winning any of the remaining 5 primaries before 'Super Tuesday'. At which point it would probably be in his best interests to drop out and endorse Obama in order to snag himself the VP slot.

_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

(in reply to LB Jeffries)
Post #: 190
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 4/1/2008 9:59:56 PM   
Dirty Hartigan


Posts: 5890
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Manchester
quote:

ORIGINAL: Fluke Skywalker

What are people's views on the dodgy voting machines?


They really need to go back to the old fashioned way. There's been plenty of articles on how easy it is to reboot and reprogram these machines, so they should have observers from the UN in the major states. I'm hoping the election won't be as close as the last two, which may make it harder for shenanigans to take place.

(in reply to Fluke Skywalker)
Post #: 191
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 3:12:36 AM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
From The Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/04/new-hampshire-will-be-key_n_79873.html

NEW HAMPSHIRE: BATTLEGROUND FOR GOP CIVIL WAR
By Thomas  B. Edsall

Manchester, N.H. -- As the pared-down field of presidential candidates returns to battle today in preparation for next Tuesday's primary, the GOP faces the prospect of two struggles: one, an intra-party conflict to determine who is going to be the Wall Street/national defense establishment candidate; and, two, a civil war in which the winner of the first conflict takes on Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor who is leading a right-populist/evangelical insurgency.

The initial GOP contest is to determine whether John McCain, leader of the national defense wing, will defeat Mitt Romney, who now carries the mantle of anti-tax, economic conservatives, to become the overall choice of the party's mainstream - or whether Rudy Giuliani will stage an improbable comeback.

Whoever takes the New Hampshire Republican contest on January 8 will face what is likely to be a far more divisive challenge from Huckabee in the next round of primary and caucus states. This fight threatens to fracture the Republican party - recalling the schism engendered by the 1964 Rockefeller-Goldwater battle.

* * *

Across the aisle, the struggle within the Democratic coalition pits two candidates and their staffs squarely against a third, each one representing competing bases of the party.

Barack Obama has mobilized a powerful coalition -- the core of which is made up of young, well-educated voters enraged by the war in Iraq -- to win against Hillary Clinton's supporters, concentrated among women, those over 65, the less affluent (she won among $15-$30,000 income voters), and those seeking an experienced candidate. [See caucus breakdowns here.

John Edwards, in turn, has mobilized the not-insignificant constituency of voters viscerally angered by job-cutbacks, declining wages, and corporate high-handedness.

The new Democratic front-runner, Obama, has the current advantage of pulling in independent voters crucial not only to the primary contest here, but to the general election next November.

Obama faces the prospect of severe and hostile vetting from his primary opponents, however. Upon her arrival in New Hampshire this morning, Hillary Clinton signaled that she intends to play on Obama's as yet unexploited political weaknesses: "Who will be able to stand up to the Republican attack machine?" she asked at an appearance in Nashua.

Hillary's aides point to Obama's extremely progressive record as a community organizer, state senator and candidate for Congress, his alliances with "left-wing" intellectuals in Chicago's Hyde Park community, and his liberal voting record on criminal defendants' rights as subjects for examination.

Edwards' staff also immediately began to take shots at Obama: Appearing on MSNBC this morning, Edwards' manager David Bonior described Obama as a sellout to corporate America: "Barack Obama's kind of change is where you sit down and you cut a deal with the corporate world."

For his part, Obama told reporters on his 7 am flight from Iowa to New Hampshire that he has no intention of changing strategy: "It's not broken. Why fix it?"

* * *

On the Republican side, the immediate consequence of Huckabee's crushing nine-point defeat of Romney in Iowa has been to give a major boost in New Hampshire to John McCain, the "maverick" libertarian-authoritarian who has been vying for the lead among voters in this state. For many in the establishment-wing of the GOP, Romney's failure to win Iowa after spending record sums there - a loss stemming in part from voter perception that he is a moderate running in conservative wolves' clothing -- means that McCain is now very likely to become the banner carrier for the party's mainstream.

McCain's rise is an uncomfortable development for social-values voters; for those opposed to immigration; for those critical of McCain's support for campaign finance reform; and for those disturbed by his votes against Bush's tax cuts.

In the longer term, however, McCain's difficulties with these factions are minor compared to the dangers posed by Huckabee's explicitly populist challenge to the authority of the Republican Party's power brokers.

Huckabee has demonstrated a willingness to defy party leaders, whom he dismissed as a "wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street," a statement that goes beyond heresy to apostasy. Moreover, he has used that message to turn what had been a loyal Republican constituency -- white evangelicals -- into a rebel force.

Since the election of Richard Nixon in 1968, the GOP has successfully avoided the divisive internal conflict that debilitated the Democrats through much of the past four decades, subordinating the inherent tensions between values-oriented Christian voters, segregationists, sexual traditionalists, those opposed to womens' rights, and market-oriented pro-business Republicans under a common goal of opposing intrusion by the federal government.

The Huckabee candidacy has the potential to tear the strained "big tent" asunder.

* * *

The GOP establishment -- Republicans who run the party apparatus - now faces a dilemma. The ideal outcome for this interest group would be to have the contest turn into a battle between Romney and McCain, with Huckabee slowly pushed aside.

The problem is that if the support of party regulars remains split between McCain and Romney, Huckabee's bid remains credible, and likely to be significantly enhanced in the latter half of January when the primary struggle heads away from the North to South Carolina and Florida, two states that Huckabee could win.

The challenge Huckabee represents is reflected in his fights with the GOP's leading anti-tax organization, the Club for Growth, which the former Arkansas Governor has dismissed as the "Club for Greed."

If the Republican presidential nomination turns into a McCain versus Huckabee contest, the Club for Growth would face the repugnant reality of having to choose between Huckabee, whom the Club calls "a habitual tax hiker," and McCain, whose "overall record is tainted by a marked antipathy towards the free market and individual freedom," according to the Club.

New Hampshire, by all accounts, will be one of Huckabee's weakest states, with a relatively small fundamentalist-evangelical community. The states that follow New Hampshire - Michigan, South Carolina and Florida - are far more attractive for his Christian-based candidacy, especially insofar as his religiosity is compatible with the positions of mainstream and even left-liberal denominations.

Michigan will be hard for Huckabee to win, but in 1988, televangelist Marion (Pat) Robertson scored second in the state's caucus, and the Christian right is very active in the state. Huckabee has already shown strength in Florida and South Carolina polls.

"We only have a few days to close the sale, but I think the momentum coming out of Iowa is going to be good for us," Huckabee told reporters this morning. "Then we're on to South Carolina and Florida where we're running first in the polls. We're going to have a great month."

Huckabee now faces the prospect of a much more exhaustive examination of his own eccentricities and vulnerabilities. He is the author of an unusual collection of books including "Digging Your Grave With A Knife And Fork" and a contributor to "Living Beyond Your Lifetime;" by his own account, Huckabee has struggled with obesity all his adult life, and is arguably obsessed with dieting; although he is an ordained Baptist preacher, and a graduate of Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, Arkansas, he spent only a year at Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary in Fort Worth Texas, dropping out before completing his degree; and while Governor of Arkansas, he faced numerous allegations of ethics violations.

An extended fight pitting Huckabee against another leading Republican candidate would very likely leave GOP with scars difficult to heal by November 2008.


_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

(in reply to Dirty Hartigan)
Post #: 192
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 5:53:15 PM   
Harry Lime


Posts: 5147
Joined: 30/9/2005
Overjoyed with Obama's win in Iowa and almost as pleased to see Edwards take second from Clinton. The more I hear of her the more I hear the same tired policies and realise that she's as much part of the establihment that desperately needs to change. Her declaration of her intentions to go negative in New Hampshire just sums up her desperation. She's been favourite in New Hampshire until Thursday but I believe Obama has the momentum to squeeze past her on the finish line. As seems to be the trend here, I'd love to see an Obama/ Edwards ticket in November.
 
Incidently LB, do you think the ghost of Whitewater and other scandals will come back to haunt the Clinton's later in the campaign?

_____________________________

"People think I have an interesting walk. Hell, I'm just trying to hold my gut in."

If I get there early will it be the right time
our heaven is just waiting so put your hand into mine.

(in reply to LB Jeffries)
Post #: 193
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 5:57:30 PM   
Timon


Posts: 14588
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Bristol
I was watching the news last night and who did I see gurning behind Mike Huckabee? Chuck Norris!

Oh Chuck, I'd be disappointed....if one could be disappointed with Chuck Norris

_____________________________

"I put no stock in religion. By the word 'religion', I have seen the lunacy of fanatics of every denomination be called 'The Will of God'. Holiness is in right action and courage on behalf of those who cannot defend themselves."

Twitter: @timonsingh

(in reply to Harry Lime)
Post #: 194
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 6:08:23 PM   
James2183


Posts: 10541
Joined: 30/9/2005
I wonder how long it will take Mrs Clinton to start the mud slinging at Mr Obama now that he has a real chance of winning? 

_____________________________

Hey bub, I aint finished with you yet!

"We do not beat the reaper by living longer. We beat the reaper by living well and living fully" - Randy Pausch

(in reply to Timon)
Post #: 195
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 6:16:19 PM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis
quote:

ORIGINAL: Harry Lime

 
Incidently LB, do you think the ghost of Whitewater and other scandals will come back to haunt the Clinton's later in the campaign?


I don't know about LB, and he knows more than me about this, but I can't see McDougal and Whitewater playing a role of any significance, after all, Starr milked it for all he could over a decade ago, and even Gingrich stopped talking about it long before the end of Bill Clinton's first term, and its something only conspiracy theorists banging on about Vince Foster really care about anymore. Although, I'd be happy for anything to have a negative effect on her campaign, before she gets the nomination at least, (assuming she gets it, which I hope to god she doesn't). And its not like her rivals have a lack of more recent things to attack her with, and she's always been easy to demonise.



< Message edited by Manchurian candidate -- 5/1/2008 6:18:46 PM >


_____________________________

"Ford's economics are the worst thing that's happened to this country since pantyhose ruined finger-fucking."
Lyndon B. Johnson
"British Beatitudes! … Beer, beef, business, bibles, bulldogs, battleships, buggery and bishops"
-Ulysses, By James Joyce
"Rose McGowan is a fucking clown"
-Harry Lime
"Who's Keith"
- Rhubarb

(in reply to Harry Lime)
Post #: 196
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 6:30:41 PM   
Vertigo...Woo.Yay.


Posts: 1111
Joined: 30/9/2005
quote:

ORIGINAL: Manchurian candidate

quote:

ORIGINAL: Harry Lime

 
Incidently LB, do you think the ghost of Whitewater and other scandals will come back to haunt the Clinton's later in the campaign?


I don't know about LB, and he knows more than me about this, but I can't see McDougal and Whitewater playing a role of any significance, after all, Starr milked it for all he could over a decade ago, and even Gingrich stopped talking about it long before the end of Bill Clinton's first term, and its something only conspiracy theorists banging on about Vince Foster really care about anymore. Although, I'd be happy for anything to have a negative effect on her campaign, before she gets the nomination at least, (assuming she gets it, which I hope to god she doesn't). And its not like her rivals have a lack of more recent things to attack her with, and she's always been easy to demonise.




Indeed, the 'scandal' of Whitewater is that the Clintons put money into a shitty land deal and got burnt. Not really the stuff of subsequent congressional hearings, but Starr clearly had a boner for bringing Clinton down. Duff land investments however were no contest for a blowie in the Oval Office and a dress that needed drycleaning. Really, you look at that and how the Republicans nearly got him impeached, and then the list of charges that are impeachable for Bush, and then you look at the Democrats and want to shout 'get some balls already!'.

I'm pleased Obama took the Iowa caucaus - I think Hilary doesn't offer much away from the establishment as it is, and I think there's actually something wrong with the possibility that from 1989 up to possibly 2017 the most powerful role in the world has been, or will be, taken by members of only two families - if anything underlines "any American kid can grow up to be President" as being a big, fat lie, that little factoid does.

_____________________________

"Things are going to get pretty interesting..."
"Define 'interesting'"
"Oh God, Oh God, we're all gonna die?"

If only we could harness Otis Ferry for good...
All hail Hypnotoad

(in reply to Manchurian candidate)
Post #: 197
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 6:44:26 PM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis
Worst case senario- George Bush, Hillary Clinton, Jed Bush, Chelsea Clinton... (actually, I wouldn't mind the last one...)

< Message edited by Manchurian candidate -- 5/1/2008 6:45:13 PM >


_____________________________

"Ford's economics are the worst thing that's happened to this country since pantyhose ruined finger-fucking."
Lyndon B. Johnson
"British Beatitudes! … Beer, beef, business, bibles, bulldogs, battleships, buggery and bishops"
-Ulysses, By James Joyce
"Rose McGowan is a fucking clown"
-Harry Lime
"Who's Keith"
- Rhubarb

(in reply to Vertigo...Woo.Yay.)
Post #: 198
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 8:45:46 PM   
Dirty Hartigan


Posts: 5890
Joined: 30/9/2005
From: Manchester
quote:

ORIGINAL: James2183

I wonder how long it will take Mrs Clinton to start the mud slinging at Mr Obama now that he has a real chance of winning? 


The only real thing she can get him on is the drugs thing, and you've gotta love how he fronted up already with his whole "yes, I did inhale" stance.

(in reply to James2183)
Post #: 199
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 8:54:29 PM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis
I don't see how see could do that without coming across as a total hippocrate.

_____________________________

"Ford's economics are the worst thing that's happened to this country since pantyhose ruined finger-fucking."
Lyndon B. Johnson
"British Beatitudes! … Beer, beef, business, bibles, bulldogs, battleships, buggery and bishops"
-Ulysses, By James Joyce
"Rose McGowan is a fucking clown"
-Harry Lime
"Who's Keith"
- Rhubarb

(in reply to Dirty Hartigan)
Post #: 200
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 5/1/2008 11:28:43 PM   
xmagic_dustx


Posts: 1741
Joined: 11/2/2007
From: Glasgow, Scotland
This just enrages me. He's clearly the man who should run the country, fucksake.....

http://www.redlasso.com/ClipPlayer.aspx?id=0287e68b-f783-46ad-9445-f3fd31c008ca

_____________________________

"I've killed a Hell of a lot of people to get to this point."

(in reply to Manchurian candidate)
Post #: 201
RE: Obama wins Iowa - 6/1/2008 3:42:52 AM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
quote:

ORIGINAL: Harry Lime

Incidently LB, do you think the ghost of Whitewater and other scandals will come back to haunt the Clinton's later in the campaign?

No, I don't.
Americans were sick of it back then never mind wanting to hear about it again, now. Bill Clinton's numbers actually went up after he had been impeached as most Americans thought congressional and house Republicans had gone too far and become too blood-thirsty, putting partisanship ahead of the good of the country. You should also not forget that if Clinton could have run for a third-term he probably would have won again - Americans simply didn't/don't care about the Clinton's 'scandals' as much as Republicans would like.


_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

(in reply to Harry Lime)
Post #: 202
Latest NH Polling - 6/1/2008 3:46:36 AM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
LATEST NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS - 3 DAYS TO GO

RealClearPolitics.com Average (January 5)

Obama 33.2
Clinton 31.2
Edwards 19.2
Richardson 5.0

McCain 32.7
Romney 27.8
Huckabee 12
Giuliani 9.5
Paul 8.5
Thompson 2.2


**********

Concord Monitor (January 5)

Obama 34
Clinton 33
Edwards 23
Richardson 4
Kucinich 3

McCain 35
Romney 29
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 8
Paul 7
Thompson 3


**********

CNN/WMUR Poll (January 4-5)

Clinton 33%
Obama 33%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 2%

Sampling error: +/-5% pts

McCain 33%
Romney 27%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%
Hunter 1%
Thompson 1%

Sampling error: +/-5% pts


**********

American Research Group (January 5)

Obama 38%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 20%
Undecided 8%
Richardson 3%
Gravel 3%
Kucinich 1%

McCain 39%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 6%
Undecided 6%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%
Thompson 1%


**********

Rasmussen Reports (January 4)

Obama 37%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 3%
Gravel 1%

McCain 31%
Romney 26%
Paul 14%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 5%
Some other candidate 2%


_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

(in reply to LB Jeffries)
Post #: 203
RE: Latest NH Polling - 6/1/2008 4:06:31 AM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
From Time - http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1700705,00.html

CLINTON MACHINE SHAKEN BY SETBACK

The scope of Barack Obama's victory in Iowa has shaken the Clinton machine down to its bolts. Donors are panicking. The campaign has been making a round of calls to reassure notoriously fickle "superdelegates" — elected officials and party regulars who are awarded convention spots by virtue of their titles and positions — who might be reconsidering their decisions to back the candidate who formerly looked like a sure winner. And internally, a round of recriminations is being aimed at her chief strategist, Mark Penn, as the representative of everything about her pseudo-incumbent campaign that has been too cautious, too arrogant, too conventional and too clueless as to how much the political landscape has shifted since the last Clinton reign. One adviser summed up the biggest challenge that faces the campaign in two words: "Fresh thinking."

Specifically, those inside the campaign and outside advisers fault Penn for failing to see the Iowa defeat coming. They say he was assuring Clinton and her allies right up until the caucuses that they would win it. Says one: "He did not predict in any way, shape or form the tidal wave we saw." In particular, he had assured them that Clinton's support among women would carry her through. Yet she managed to win only 30% of the women's vote, while 35% of them went for Obama.

A modest rise in Iowa turnout from traditional levels — say by about 20,000 or 30,000 — might have been easy to write off as merely the result of superior tactics on the part of the well-funded Obama operation. But the fact that voters flooded the caucuses, and that Obama swept just about every demographic group, speaks to something larger that is going on in the electorate, Clinton strategists now acknowledge.

That leaves them facing problems on two levels. The first, and easier one to grapple with, is how to deal with Obama. Even as the results in Iowa were still coming in, the Clinton campaign was mobilizing onto an attack footing. But it's possible that the most difficult problem is not Obama; it could be Clinton. How can she retool her message — and her identity as a virtual incumbent — to resonate with an electorate that seems to yearn more for change than any other quality? Says one longtime Democratic strategist, who is close to the Clintons: "Fundamentally, she is who she is; she can't change who she is, and maybe this is not her time."

There are senior officials within the campaign — notably, outside advisers say, media consultant Mandy Grunwald and adviser Harold Ickes — who have been worried for months that Clinton was missing the fundamental shift in the electorate. However, their entreaties have gone nowhere. Bill and Hillary Clinton have put enormous faith in Penn, and given him veto power, aides say, over every word that goes into her television ads and every line in her mailers. "He had her and the President's trust very deeply," says one adviser who is close to the campaign. Adds another: "He's a one-man shop."

If Clinton also loses New Hampshire to Obama, Penn's future with the campaign may well be in jeopardy, strategists say. But that may be wishful thinking on their part. For one thing, there is no obvious candidate to replace him. Hillary's advisers and Bill's have never gotten along — and she has been particularly suspicious of his team. "Who they both trust — that's a very small group," says one former Clinton aide. "She is going to be very, very resistant to all of the white boys coming back."

Another problem is that some of those who might potentially be brought in have already been sidelined. Former White House Chief of Staff John Podesta, for instance, is running a 527 organization called the Fund for America and is forbidden by law to even consult with the campaign.

But everyone is aware that a victory by Obama in New Hampshire on Tuesday could accelerate a dynamic that could become very difficult to overcome as the campaign moves on. In South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 26, half the Democratic electorate is African-American; though many have been wary of Obama's chances so far, that could change if he starts to pile up victories. Clinton might instead focus her attention on Nevada, which holds its caucus a week earlier, in hopes of snaring a victory there on presumably friendlier turf. But if Obama continues to gain strength — particularly in the face of attacks by Clinton's campaign — he undercuts her argument that she is the strongest and most electable candidate. And if he can stand up to the assault of the Clinton machine, it will also make him look more formidable against the Republican one.



From The Huffington Post

DEMS, GOP FACE-OFF IN FINAL NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATES

Manchester, N.H. - Hillary Clinton went on the attack against Barack Obama at the Democratic presidential debate Saturday night, but she ran into a tough push back not only from the Illinois Senator but also John Edwards, who lashed out at her as an agent of "the status quo."

For Clinton, the forum provided her only real chance to stall Barack Obama's momentum before the January 8 state primary. Initially she appeared very cautious, as all the candidates conducted a sober discussion of nuclear and terrorist threats in which there was much more agreement than conflict.

But then, when the discussion turned to domestic policy, Clinton shifted gears to accuse Obama of holding three different positions on federal health care, of voting for the Patriot Act after promising he would vote against it, and of failing to call for federal health insurance that would cover everyone with no exceptions.

Clinton cited a news story contending that Obama "could have three pretty good debates with himself" on health care. "You've changed positions within [the past] three years on a range of issues."

Obama did not appeared ruffled by the Clinton assault, stronger than her past rhetoric, and tried to discuss in detail the rationale for his position on health care, but then Edwards stepped in to make a much more aggressive defense both of Obama and himself:

"Senator Obama and I have difference, we have differences about health care; we have a fundamental difference about the way to bring about change. But both of us are powerful forces for change, and, may I add, we finished first and second in the Iowa caucus."

He then added that whenever someone raises their voice for change, "the voices of the status quo attack," in a clear reference to Clinton. "I didn't hear these kinds of attacks when she was ahead," Edwards said.

"I want to make change, but I've already made change," Clinton countered forcefully. "I'm not just running on the promise of change, I'm running on 35 years of change."

At the Republican debate that preceded the Democratic forum, Mitt Romney, who arrived determined to reverse John McCain's rise in recent polls of New Hampshire voters, found himself repeatedly on the defensive.

The former Massachusetts governor was ridiculed for his past changes of positions, forced to defend a Massachusetts program that requires people to buy health insurance -- the kind of government mandate anathema to many of the conservative Republicans Romney is trying to win over -- and accused of spending a fortune on negative ads "that are not true."

The stakes were high for Mitt Romney tonight, who, after getting walloped in Iowa, is struggling to slow McCain down. Romney will have a second shot at McCain during the FOX-sponsored debate Sunday.

Tonight did not go well for Romney.

First, after former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee charged that Romney has shifted back and forth between criticizing and supporting President Bush's policies in Iraq, Romney, seeking to take command, warned Huckabee, "Governor, don't try to characterize my position..." But before Romney could finish, Huckabee, famous for his one-liners, shot back, "which one?" as the audience and the rest of the Republicans on the debate panel burst out laughing.


Later on, Romney was put under cross examination by former Watergate counsel Fred Thompson, who questioned Romney repeatedly about the Massachusetts health care program enacted while Romney was governor.

"Will you federal plan mandate that people buy insurance?" Thompson asked, knowing that he had found a conservative weak spot in Romney's years in Massachusetts. Looking defensive, Romney said his federal play would "not require any state" to require people to buy health care, but, he said, he believes the only way to bring costs down is to make everyone who makes a lower middle class income or better to buy insurance.

When Romney tried to accuse McCain of providing amnesty to illegal immigrants, McCain shot back, "It (the McCain bill) was explained to you and you said it was reasonable and did not require amnesty....You can spend your whole fortune on these attack ads, and it still won't be true."

Then, when Romney contended that the Associated Press has misquoted him in a story describing him as supporting the McCain bill, McCain said "well, when you change from position to position from time to time, you will be misquoted."

Later, when Romney portrayed himself as a candidate of change, McCain told Romney, "We agree on one issue, you are the candidate of change."

An hour before the first of two debates was to begin at Saint Anselm College, CNN and WMUR of New Hampshire released a poll showing Clinton and Obama locked in a dead heat, 33-33, with John Edwards well behind at 20 percent. Despite the poll, at campaign events, the momentum appears to be overwhelmingly behind Obama, who is drawing huge crowds of highly enthusiastic supporters, while Clinton's events are far more modest in numbers and energy by comparison.

A Concord Monitor/Research 2000 poll released just before the debate had very similar results, Obama 34, Clinton 33.

One of the biggest shifts in the CNN/WMUR survey conducted Friday and Saturday was in the ratings of Clinton and Obama's electability in the general election next November 4. Thirty-six percent of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters said Hillary has the best chance of winning the general election in November, down nine points from her 45 percent score in a poll taken before the Iowa caucuses.

Obama virtually tied Clinton at 35 percent, but -- more significantly -- his electability rating had climbed 13 points from the pre-caucus survey.

On the Republican side, the CNN survey show McCain taking the lead, with 33 percent, and Romney, who for months had topped New Hampshire polls, now second, six points behind at 27 percent. The Concord Monitor poll was very similar, McCain 35, Romney 29.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was third in the CNN survey, but far behind at 14 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee, the Iowa winner, with 11 percent, and Ron Paul at 9 percent. Fred Thompson, who was once considered the savior of the conservative movement in the GOP, got only 1 percent, tying Representative Duncan Hunter.


_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

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Post #: 204
RE: Latest NH Polling - 6/1/2008 10:10:21 AM   
sanchia


Posts: 18304
Joined: 3/1/2006
From: Norwich
The dynamic certainly seems to have changed for Clinton.

quote:


The New Hampshire Democratic Party's 100 Club dinner is a staid affair, attracting the main candidates as speakers in an act of shameless fundraising. But on Friday night extraordinary scenes unfolded there that captured the mood of a party suddenly filled with the desire to kick out its old guard.

Barack Obama was so mobbed by supporters that a security announcer begged people surging towards the stage to retake their seats. Many were chanting Obama's new signature slogan: 'Fired up! Let's go!'
In stark contrast, Hillary Clinton had been booed twice. The first time when she seemed to borrow from Obama's main theme of 'change'. The second was when she made a veiled reference to her greater experience. 'Who will be ready to lead from day one?' she asked the 3,000-strong crowd. But she was forced to pause to let the resulting boos die down. A few weeks ago, such a spectacle would have been unthinkable.

For Clinton, who has long sought an aura of inevitable victory, it was a defining moment of how much the political landscape has now changed. She is facing the battle of her life in New Hampshire to rescue something from the wreckage of her life-long presidential ambitions.


HERE

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Post #: 205
RE: Latest NH Polling - 6/1/2008 10:39:03 AM   
Manchurian candidate


Posts: 11123
Joined: 13/6/2006
From: A Clear-Thinking Oasis
quote:


"Senator Obama and I have difference, we have differences about health care; we have a fundamental difference about the way to bring about change. But both of us are powerful forces for change, and, may I add, we finished first and second in the Iowa caucus."




Edwards is brilliant. President or V-President, I want this guy to win.



< Message edited by Manchurian candidate -- 6/1/2008 10:40:05 AM >


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Post #: 206
RE: Latest NH Polling - 6/1/2008 7:45:51 PM   
Donnie Murdo


Posts: 1199
Joined: 14/8/2006
From: Edinburgh
Looks like Clinton's campaign is going the way of Labour's campaign in Scotland last May.  She's bricking it that the voters are going for a massive change, and has decided that negativity and mild scaremongering about change and untested opponents is the only way to go.

Let's see if it goes as well for her as it did for Jack McConnell....

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Post #: 207
Obama Surging In NH - 7/1/2008 3:45:31 AM   
LB Jeffries


Posts: 3465
Joined: 2/10/2005
Latest NH Polls:

USA Today/Gallup (January 4-6)

Obama 41
Clinton 28
Edwards 19
Richardson 6

McCain 34
Romney 30
Huckabee 13
Paul 8
Giuliani 8

The surveys of 776 New Hampshire residents who are "likely" to vote in the Republican primary and 778 New Hampshire residents who are "likely" to vote in the Democratic primary were all completed after the news from Thursday's Iowa caucuses had been reported. Each figure has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. So Obama's lead is "outside" that range, while McCain's is not.



From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/06/shaken-clinton-camp-prepa_n_80125.html

SHAKEN CLINTON PREPARES FOR TRENCH WARFARE

Hillary Clinton's campaign, anticipating probable defeat here in New Hampshire on January 8, is gearing up for an extended trench-warfare battle against Barack Obama. The former First Lady is planning to fight Obama in South Carolina on January 26, and in the gargantuan nationwide primary on Tuesday, February 5 -- with contests in 19 states, including New York, California, New Jersey, Georgia, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Colorado. If she remains competitive, Clinton's plan is to continue to compete in Louisiana on February 9, in Virginia and Maryland on February 12, in Wisconsin on February 19, in Ohio on March 4 -- and beyond, if necessary. In an approach redolent of Walter Mondale's 1984 "Where's the Beef?" tactic against Gary Hart, Clinton has adopted the less memorable slogan "Rhetoric vs. Results, Talk vs. Action." The Clinton campaign is sparing no effort to pressure the media to lean on Obama's perceived vulnerabilities. Looking to leverage Obama's slender resume, a Clinton operative argued to HuffPost that the campaign will be able to demonstrate that "Obama is just not a plausible person in this environment of international peril," and that the longer the primary campaign can be extended, the better chance Clinton will have to prove that "there is not even a second level to Obama, there is no depth." The results of this gambit are far from certain. Many political observers here see Hillary on the ropes. "I think Iowa was the best she is going to do. Now she has the stink of a loser on her," said an official from the upper echelons of the 2004 Democratic campaign. In the upcoming states, voters "are just now starting to pay attention, and all they know is that he [Obama] is a winner and she's a loser." Political analyst Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute warned, "Tactical maneuvering at this point is of limited value, but all [Clinton] may be able to do for the moment is to try tactical stuff, and lash herself to the mast to withstand the [Obama] wave." Like Mondale in 1984, Clinton is configuring her campaign to win in states where independents cannot vote. "Clinton got killed among independents and those few Republicans who crossed over," an Iowa operative noted about last Thursday's caucuses. After this Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where independents can cast ballots in either the Democratic or Republican contest, "We are just going to go to the big Democratic states with closed primaries" says a member of the Clinton inner circle. Of the upcoming nineteen February 5 primaries and caucuses, however, ten are "open" (meaning that independents can vote for a Democrat) and only nine are "closed" (meaning independents are barred). The question all over Democratic circles today is, what can Hillary do? Is time running out? The consensus is that she has "a real uphill fight -- a tough pull," according to observers. The Clinton campaign counters that it is banking on the support of voters with "deep and ingrained loyalty" to the Democratic party and to the presidency of Bill Clinton -- especially on the support of poor to lower-middle class Democratic voters who are seeking government aid to pay for health care and other necessities, and who can be convinced that Clinton is best equipped to win enactment of such policies. Many of these voters, however, are black, and African American voters have, over the course of the past year, been moving steadily to Obama. While both Bill and Hillary Clinton have had substantial support in the African-American community - Bill Clinton got roughly 90 percent of the black vote in his two presidential elections -- there could be an Obama groundswell among minority voters. "If Obama wins two white states in a row, that is going to send a signal to African Americans around the country. The African-American population is going to be excited beyond belief by the prospect of a black president," says Ornstein. "The sixty-four thousand dollar question," according to a Democratic operative, is "whether whites will continue to vote for Obama once the novelty wears off." Most of those interviewed for this story do not believe the novelty will wear off. "If you put the three elements together, Obama's appeal to independents, some cross-over Republicans, and combine that with a really energized African American community, that is a pretty powerful new math for the Democrats," says Bill Carrick, a California Democratic consultant. "I think he [Obama] has got a pretty interesting coalition for the general election." Emory University political scientist Merle Black notes that Obama is "not presenting himself as a Jesse Jackson, he is not an Al Sharpton; he is presenting himself as a Democrat who happens to be African American. There are very few white voters who would not find him very likeable." If Obama does have trouble with white voters, Black said it will be because of his "liberal record more than race."
* * *
A number of Clinton operatives and supporters report privately that her campaign organization is beset with internal turmoil, and that Mark Penn remains in serious danger of losing his position as the senior and dominant strategist. "There are a lot of people saying Mark Penn is going to be thrown under the bus," said one source. On the other hand, there are dissidents from this view. Norm Ornstein told HuffPost, "I am not one of those who joins in the pillorying of Mark Penn. They played the hand they had, and that hand was built around experience and nostalgia for the Clinton administration. If they had switched to a message of change six months ago, it would not have been any more credible then than it is now."
* * *
Clinton's calculation that she can best confront Obama in the coming closed Democratic primaries is based in part on detailed analysis of the Iowa results. The Iowa entrance polls conducted for all the major television networks - including ABC, CBS, NBC, AND CNN -- show that registered Democrats were more supportive of Clinton than either independents or the small number of Republicans who chose to participate in the Democratic caucus. She virtually tied Obama among registered Democrats (31-32), while decisively losing independents (17-41) and Republicans (10-44). John Edwards beat her by slightly smaller, but still substantial, margins among Republicans and independents, while losing to her among Democrats. In addition to the fact that ten of the Super Tuesday states are conducting open primaries or caucuses, there is a major short term problem: the next primary on January 26 in South Carolina is not only open, but has a large African American population likely to be drawn to Obama. In past Democratic primary contests, the kind of coalition Obama has put together - well-educated, culturally liberal, and relatively affluent whites, eschewing the "common touch" -- was inadequate to produce victories -- not only in the case of Hart, but also in Paul Tsongas' 1992's race against Bill Clinton and Bill Bradley's race against Al Gore in 2000. In the current election, however, Obama has at least preliminarily shown the ability to cobble together a coalition bridging the gap between upscale voters and minorities to form a winning primary-caucus alliance. Obama is capitalizing on one of the most powerful trends in the composition of the Democratic electorate: the conversion from the GOP of growing legions of relatively affluent, suburban and urban, socially tolerant white professionals and so-called knowledge workers - ranging from pre-school teachers and data entry technicians to nuclear physicists -- who have become a major constituency, and a driving force in Democratic Party policy making. This movement of what some have termed "the creative class" to the Democrats was sharply accelerated during the administration of Bill Clinton, and has grown stronger during the second half of the Bush years, as opposition to the war, to Bush's conservative social policies and to administration reluctance to deal with such issues as global warming has given Democrats a major boost in support. Whether Mrs. Clinton, Edwards, or Obama will benefit most from this restructured center-left coalition is not yet clear.
* * *
In private, some of Clinton's supporters are deeply disdainful of Obama. "He is the candidate of the 'identity left'," said one, dismissively, angered by what he sees as Obama's claim that the "he's built a new majority that rises above partisanship, that somehow through his magical presence, we can rise above conflict." This Clinton supporter described Obama as afflicted with naïve idealism similar to that of Jimmy Carter. The burden on Clinton will be, according to this strategist, to show that "this guy [Obama] is amateur hour, that it's all glitz. He thinks you can get there but you don't have to go through anything. It's dreamy, but it mainly appeals to independents." Clinton's task has been further complicated by the continued presence in the race of John Edwards. Edwards has taken the unexpected role in New Hampshire of acting as Obama's attack dog against the New York Senator, allowing Obama to remain above the fray. While Edwards, who beat Clinton by three-tenths of a percentage point in Iowa, currently appears destined to finish third here on Tuesday, he did force Clinton onto the defensive in Saturday's debate, calling her the advocate of the "status quo." He escalated the conflict today, charging that Clinton and her campaign "have no conscience" in turning a blind eye to the human suffering that has motivated his campaign, distorting his record of commitment to help the ill and injured with proposals for more comprehensive, broadly available medical treatment. Edwards contended on the campaign trail this morning that he is determined to stay in the fight all the way to the Democratic convention. In the latest CNN-WMUR poll of New Hampshire Democrats, however, Edwards has lost ground, falling to16 percent, well behind Obama's 39 percent, and Clinton's 29 percent.

_____________________________

“When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars and he will make the face of heaven so fine that all the world will be in love with night and pay no worship to the garish sun.”

(in reply to Donnie Murdo)
Post #: 208
RE: Obama Surging In NH - 7/1/2008 11:16:54 AM   
Giant Green Rabbit


Posts: 1109
Joined: 13/2/2006
From: Cloud Cuckoo Land
If anything the last week just hows how ridculous the slection of presidential nominees has become. It's all so insubstantial - a week ago Clinton nationally had a 20 point lead over Obama. Obama having focussed on Iowa much more than Hilary, did 'unexpectedly' well there - and suddenly the myth of 'momentum' kicks in.

'Momentum' drives Obama from a double figure deficit in New Hamsphire to a double figure lead according to one poll, or so we are told, but what is momentum and who drives it? In reality momentum is hot air as generated by the the media looking for things to report. In the last week absolutely no substantial shifts in tone or policy have come out  of the Obama or Clinton camps. Yet 10% of voters seemed to have changed their mind, but not, as the press would have you believe, because the Iowans made their choice. Rather the press use the results of caucuses like Iowa to establish the myth of momentum which fills a great number of hours on 24-7 News Channels. Though there is nothing substantial to report, various camps are depicted as being in crisis, or in the ascendancy when neither of them are - rather it's the media's own depiction which drives opinion upwards or downwards for each candidate.

The polling, the news feeds, he talk of 'momentum' - it's essentially bullshit, but the kind of bullshit people (including myself) enjoy reading. Politics should never be like a war or a football game, but it's in the media's interest to make it that way, for it makes for much more exciting news coverage. And so we have it - a political age where candiadates live or die by ad hoc strategies scrambling for media coverage and news cycles, not because they have anything interesting to say, but because their failure to generate press would allow the media to paint them as losers - and thus they may become so.

< Message edited by Giant Green Rabbit -- 7/1/2008 11:20:38 AM >


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Post #: 209
RE: Obama Surging In NH - 7/1/2008 1:06:53 PM   
Woger


Posts: 3815
Joined: 30/9/2005
Well said GGR. But the good news is that Obama is starting to piss off the right people, in a different way.

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/01/06/video-of-oreilly-calling-obama-staffer-an-sob-and-low-class/

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Post #: 210
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