is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (Full Version)

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maffew -> is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:00:12 PM)

Or rather I mean if piracy didn't exist, would box office taking be any different? I was just looking through the box office takings for the top 10 grossing films, and I realised films released now take just as much, if not more, as before piracy was particularly prevalent.. ET(1982) - $434,949,459, Avengers(2012) - $472,239,621 Star Wars(1977) - $460,935,665 The Dark Knight(2008) - $533,316,061 ... pretty similar ballbark figures right? Now I know people have been making pirate copies of films for years, but no one really said anything much about it back then, at least not in the way it's publicly discussed now..I mean record sales are absolutely going down, thats for sure - but I think the film industry is clearly thriving as much as it always has..

Thoughts?








Spaldron -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:11:07 PM)

quote:

is piracy REALLY killing the film industry?


No.




maffew -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:19:51 PM)

Sweet. Case closed.




Darth Marenghi -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:21:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: maffew

Or rather I mean if piracy didn't exist, would box office taking be any different? I was just looking through the box office takings for the top 10 grossing films, and I realised films released now take just as much, if not more, as before piracy was particularly prevalent.. ET(1982) - $434,949,459, Avengers(2012) - $472,239,621 Star Wars(1977) - $460,935,665 The Dark Knight(2008) - $533,316,061 ... pretty similar ballbark figures right?



E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial's $434.9m is around a billion in today's money BTW. [:D]




maffew -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:23:38 PM)

ah, i was looking on IMDB, i figured theywould account for inflation, no?




directorscut -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:25:00 PM)

Not really comparable without adjusting for ticket price inflation. When E.T. and Stars Wars came out the average price of a ticket was $2.50-$3.00. Adjusted E.T. and Star Wars both made over one billion in the US alone.




Spaldron -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:26:17 PM)

Also...

quote:

ORIGINAL: maffew

Star Wars(1977) - $460,935,665 The Dark Knight(2008) - $533,316,061



Not sure if those figures are correct.

Star Wars - $797,900,000

TDK - $1,001,945,358




Darth Marenghi -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:27:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron

Also...

quote:

ORIGINAL: maffew

Star Wars(1977) - $460,935,665 The Dark Knight(2008) - $533,316,061



Not sure if those figures are correct.

Star Wars - $797,900,000

TDK - $1,001,945,358


I assumed Maffew was quoting the US grosses.




elab49 -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:44:15 PM)

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

All time box office adjusted for inflation. Although that's just takings, no factor for adjusted gross on reported cost. Nothing in the past 15 years - films that dominate the top 50 unadjusted - even makes the top 10.




directorscut -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:50:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: elab49

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

All time box office adjusted for inflation. Although that's just takings, no factor for adjusted gross on reported cost. Nothing in the past 15 years - films that dominate the top 50 unadjusted - even makes the top 10.


James Cameron's towering and majestic Titanic does.




Super Hans -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 5:52:10 PM)

I'm not sure it is really - even just looking at the top of the box office charts, 6 films have crossed the $1bn mark in the last 2 years (and at least of couple of them nothing special). I know inflated prices and the advent of 3D has helped, but still. Plus there are a number of franchises that have racked up a fair amount of wonga - Harry Potter, Tranformers, Twilight for example.

I don't know how whole spectrum of filmmaking is being affected, but there's certainly no shortage of massive hits, it would seem.




Spaldron -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 7:05:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut


quote:

ORIGINAL: elab49

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

All time box office adjusted for inflation. Although that's just takings, no factor for adjusted gross on reported cost. Nothing in the past 15 years - films that dominate the top 50 unadjusted - even makes the top 10.


James Cameron's towering and majestic Titanic does.


Those are only the US figures though. And considering Gone with the Wind came out during WWII in Europe its a little misleading.




elab49 -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 7:13:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut


quote:

ORIGINAL: elab49

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

All time box office adjusted for inflation. Although that's just takings, no factor for adjusted gross on reported cost. Nothing in the past 15 years - films that dominate the top 50 unadjusted - even makes the top 10.


James Cameron's towering and majestic Titanic does.


I was taking the range from that - 1997-2012. I didn't see the point in getting pedantic about a couple of months.




Whistler -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 7:35:47 PM)

I thought piracy mainly affected DVD/Blu-ray sales, not the box office takings. Either way I don't think it's killing the industry, at all.




chewbacasnapsak -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 8:33:10 PM)

Is it the case that pirate DVDs are on the decline, the bloke on the Market isn't there anymore, the dodgy bloke down our local doesn't do it anymore and even the knock off Nigel at work can't be arsed. Maybe there is better money to be made in selling Crack. Who knows?




snaze1 -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 9:47:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Darth Marenghi


quote:

ORIGINAL: maffew

Or rather I mean if piracy didn't exist, would box office taking be any different? I was just looking through the box office takings for the top 10 grossing films, and I realised films released now take just as much, if not more, as before piracy was particularly prevalent.. ET(1982) - $434,949,459, Avengers(2012) - $472,239,621 Star Wars(1977) - $460,935,665 The Dark Knight(2008) - $533,316,061 ... pretty similar ballbark figures right?



E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial's $434.9m is around a billion in today's money BTW. [:D]



And wasnt ET reportedly the most pirated film of all time?




Dpp1978 -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (27/5/2012 11:06:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: chewbacasnapsak

Is it the case that pirate DVDs are on the decline, the bloke on the Market isn't there anymore, the dodgy bloke down our local doesn't do it anymore and even the knock off Nigel at work can't be arsed. Maybe there is better money to be made in selling Crack. Who knows?


Pirate DVDs are on the decline certainly. It is now easier and cheaper (free or near enough) to download what you want. Getting files from the internet has been made easy enough for even unsophisticated computer users to do it; internet speeds are such that getting them is relatively speedy; and pretty well every device you own can play them back: piracy has become a DIY affair.

Piracy does affect the box office, there are still those who will happily watch a crappy recorded off the screen copy rather than pay to see a film in the cinema.

I know people who boast about not having paid for a film in years, even though they can afford to, and think I'm mad for paying for my media consumption. They have usually seen the latest films before me, sometimes before its official release. Whether or not they'd pay for the media if the option of obtaining it for free was taken away is questionable. Those who hold the IP seem to take the view that every illegal copy is a lost sale.

I think they are overstating the case dramatically. Many of these people would just go without if it wasn't free, or scrounge off those of us who do pay. What it allows those running the studios to do is point the finger at outside agents when their financials aren't as good as their shareholders and/or corporate overlords would like. Piracy is a convenient bogey man.

That isn't to say piracy isn't a big problem: it clearly is. Some of the illicit copies do amount to lost sales and lost sales are bad news for any business. However the war on it as fought at present seems to be about as winnable as the war on drugs. The best way to circumvent the issue would be to find alternative ways to monetise their products, whether by advertising or some other way.

But that would require a paradigm shift on how these vast conglomerates think, and a major restructuring of their business models. That's about as likely as my pirate friend suddenly deciding to buy his movies from now on.

As for box office grosses, Wikipedia, citing Guinness World Records, has the worldwide adjusted figures at:

[image]http://i.imgur.com/KoCDo.jpg[/image]




sharkboy -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 9:53:26 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dpp1978

Whether or not they'd pay for the media if the option of obtaining it for free was taken away is questionable. Those who hold the IP seem to take the view that every illegal copy is a lost sale.

I think they are overstating the case dramatically. Many of these people would just go without if it wasn't free, or scrounge off those of us who do pay. What it allows those running the studios to do is point the finger at outside agents when their financials aren't as good as their shareholders and/or corporate overlords would like. Piracy is a convenient bogey man.


Couldn't agree more.  Saying that one pirate copy watched equates to one lost sale is an incredibly naieve and simplistic conclusion to foist upon the public as the thrust of your battle against piracy.  Even aside from those who would indeed simply forego movie viewing if it came with an unaviodable price tag, there are plenty out there who use pirate copies as a kind of Hollywood quality control - better to watch those movies that they're not so sure about for free rather than splash out the guts of a tenner to be disappointed on the big screen.  Ironically, from my experience, it is these people who inevitably are the ones who will insist on spending a fortune on the titles that they like: they're the ones who buy every home release, who purchase the movie tie-in products and who will see the sequels regardless of negative reviews.

quote:

That isn't to say piracy isn't a big problem: it clearly is. Some of the illicit copies do amount to lost sales and lost sales are bad news for any business. However the war on it as fought at present seems to be about as winnable as the war on drugs. The best way to circumvent the issue would be to find alternative ways to monetise their products, whether by advertising or some other way.

But that would require a paradigm shift on how these vast conglomerates think, and a major restructuring of their business models. That's about as likely as my pirate friend suddenly deciding to buy his movies from now on.


I'm always reminded of the Bill Hicks take on the war on drugs - "if it really is a war, that means the US Army is getting its ass kicked by a bunch of guys who are stoned out of their minds!"  The comparison is precise - like the war on drugs, the strategy (and I use that term loosely) is to conduct an all-out assault on the suppliers, even if those suppliers are actually teenagers in their bedrooms downloading a copy to watch with friends later, and not some complex supply chain determined to fund their terrorist activities!




st3veebee -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 11:49:04 AM)

[image]http://i.imgur.com/KoCDo.jpg[/image]

Off topic, but it is interesting to see that every decade has a huge box office hit (except 40s). Wonder what will be the mega hit of the teenies (or whatever the hell you call this decade).





great_badir -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 12:18:51 PM)

One should be looking at attendance figures as opposed to box office - the price of seeing a film both here and abroad has nearly tripled in the last decade or so.

I have no doubt that audience numbers are falling - sold out showings are more and more becoming a thing of the past now. Even Avatar in 3D was not completely 100% sold out on opening day in any of the 'plexes local to me. Clock back to when I was working at a Showcase in the mid 90s and every showing of Independence Day was sold out for most of the opening week.

Personally, I think the ever increasing cost of a ticket will do far more long-term damage to the box office than piracy ever will and, if they're not careful, we may have a repeat of the late 80s/early 90s when cinema audiences were WAY down becaue people stopped going to their local fleapits cos it cost far too much (Jurassic Park, probably the last big blockbuster my local fleapit showed, costing 2.75 for an adult and 2.25 for a child in 1993. Skip forward a few years to the mid to late 90s and the explosion of the multiplex in the UK and you could see something for 2.50, so it actually got cheaper).

So, no - I don't think piracy is causing as much of a problem as much as we are led to believe.




Russ Whitfield -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 12:35:31 PM)

I am a big anti-piracy drum-beater. As a writer, you lose a fair amount of sales to e-book piracy these days, which is gutting - but for minor leaguers like me, its not like we're talking zillions of quid.

There was a big debate about this on a writer's forum recently, but the stand out point for me was that a pirated movie isn't necessarily (or even likely to be) a lost sale. More often than not, people who download movies won't have gone to see them anyway or bought them on DVD - and there were figures to back this up.

In some cases, it was a "try before you buy" exercise, with people just wanting to check something out before they spent money on it (not sure I'm convinced that's the case, but you can't argue with the figures - but are the people giving figures telling the truth?)

There's evidence to support (shock horror!) that studios sometimes seed the pirate sites, whether its to create a buzz or garner some sort of feedback on a project too.

People will always want free stuff, I guess - but as a person who's written some original material, its fucking annoying seeing (pirate) forum posts like "anyone know where I can download a copy of such-and-such."





great_badir -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 12:41:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Russ Whitfield
I am a big anti-piracy drum-beater. As a writer, you lose a fair amount of sales to e-book piracy these days, which is gutting - but for minor leaguers like me, its not like we're talking zillions of quid.

There was a big debate about this on a writer's forum recently, but the stand out point for me was that a pirated movie isn't necessarily (or even likely to be) a lost sale. More often than not, people who download movies won't have gone to see them anyway or bought them on DVD - and there were figures to back this up.

In some cases, it was a "try before you buy" exercise, with people just wanting to check something out before they spent money on it (not sure I'm convinced that's the case, but you can't argue with the figures - but are the people giving figures telling the truth?)

There's evidence to support (shock horror!) that studios sometimes seed the pirate sites, whether its to create a buzz or garner some sort of feedback on a project too.

People will always want free stuff, I guess - but as a person who's written some original material, its fucking annoying seeing (pirate) forum posts like "anyone know where I can download a copy of such-and-such."


Good points, especially the bit in bold - given that 99% of pirated DVDs of on-release films these days are from the negative or screeners, I can't believe that every single one of those has been illegally "ripped" by someone at the studio or in the lab (or whatever labs are called these days - IT suites?). It happens far too often for it to be that, especially when you remember the genuine cases of an employee caught distributing pirates and being given a hefty jail sentence and/or enormous fine.




Spaldron -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 12:56:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: great_badir

quote:

ORIGINAL: Russ Whitfield
I am a big anti-piracy drum-beater. As a writer, you lose a fair amount of sales to e-book piracy these days, which is gutting - but for minor leaguers like me, its not like we're talking zillions of quid.

There was a big debate about this on a writer's forum recently, but the stand out point for me was that a pirated movie isn't necessarily (or even likely to be) a lost sale. More often than not, people who download movies won't have gone to see them anyway or bought them on DVD - and there were figures to back this up.

In some cases, it was a "try before you buy" exercise, with people just wanting to check something out before they spent money on it (not sure I'm convinced that's the case, but you can't argue with the figures - but are the people giving figures telling the truth?)

There's evidence to support (shock horror!) that studios sometimes seed the pirate sites, whether its to create a buzz or garner some sort of feedback on a project too.

People will always want free stuff, I guess - but as a person who's written some original material, its fucking annoying seeing (pirate) forum posts like "anyone know where I can download a copy of such-and-such."


Good points, especially the bit in bold - given that 99% of pirated DVDs of on-release films these days are from the negative or screeners, I can't believe that every single one of those has been illegally "ripped" by someone at the studio or in the lab (or whatever labs are called these days - IT suites?). It happens far too often for it to be that, especially when you remember the genuine cases of an employee caught distributing pirates and being given a hefty jail sentence and/or enormous fine.


Don't forget the "For Your Consideration" copies out there aswell. Plenty of Academy members or members of the film press out there more than willing to share their copy with the rest of the internet.




great_badir -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 12:57:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron
quote:

ORIGINAL: great_badir

quote:

ORIGINAL: Russ Whitfield
I am a big anti-piracy drum-beater. As a writer, you lose a fair amount of sales to e-book piracy these days, which is gutting - but for minor leaguers like me, its not like we're talking zillions of quid.

There was a big debate about this on a writer's forum recently, but the stand out point for me was that a pirated movie isn't necessarily (or even likely to be) a lost sale. More often than not, people who download movies won't have gone to see them anyway or bought them on DVD - and there were figures to back this up.

In some cases, it was a "try before you buy" exercise, with people just wanting to check something out before they spent money on it (not sure I'm convinced that's the case, but you can't argue with the figures - but are the people giving figures telling the truth?)

There's evidence to support (shock horror!) that studios sometimes seed the pirate sites, whether its to create a buzz or garner some sort of feedback on a project too.

People will always want free stuff, I guess - but as a person who's written some original material, its fucking annoying seeing (pirate) forum posts like "anyone know where I can download a copy of such-and-such."


Good points, especially the bit in bold - given that 99% of pirated DVDs of on-release films these days are from the negative or screeners, I can't believe that every single one of those has been illegally "ripped" by someone at the studio or in the lab (or whatever labs are called these days - IT suites?). It happens far too often for it to be that, especially when you remember the genuine cases of an employee caught distributing pirates and being given a hefty jail sentence and/or enormous fine.


Don't forget the "For Your Consideration" copies out there aswell. Plenty of Academy members or members of the film press out there more than willing to share their copy with the rest of the internet.


...hence me using the term "screeners"...

[;)]




homersimpson_esq -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 1:24:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: elab49

I didn't see the point in getting pedantic.



Much to learn have you, young grasshopper.





horribleives -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 1:44:11 PM)

Did someone really just call Titanic 'towering and majestic'?




great_badir -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 1:46:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: horribleives
Did someone really just call Titanic 'towering and majestic'?


It was a pretty nice boat...




Spaldron -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 1:50:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: great_badir

quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron
quote:

ORIGINAL: great_badir

quote:

ORIGINAL: Russ Whitfield
I am a big anti-piracy drum-beater. As a writer, you lose a fair amount of sales to e-book piracy these days, which is gutting - but for minor leaguers like me, its not like we're talking zillions of quid.

There was a big debate about this on a writer's forum recently, but the stand out point for me was that a pirated movie isn't necessarily (or even likely to be) a lost sale. More often than not, people who download movies won't have gone to see them anyway or bought them on DVD - and there were figures to back this up.

In some cases, it was a "try before you buy" exercise, with people just wanting to check something out before they spent money on it (not sure I'm convinced that's the case, but you can't argue with the figures - but are the people giving figures telling the truth?)

There's evidence to support (shock horror!) that studios sometimes seed the pirate sites, whether its to create a buzz or garner some sort of feedback on a project too.

People will always want free stuff, I guess - but as a person who's written some original material, its fucking annoying seeing (pirate) forum posts like "anyone know where I can download a copy of such-and-such."


Good points, especially the bit in bold - given that 99% of pirated DVDs of on-release films these days are from the negative or screeners, I can't believe that every single one of those has been illegally "ripped" by someone at the studio or in the lab (or whatever labs are called these days - IT suites?). It happens far too often for it to be that, especially when you remember the genuine cases of an employee caught distributing pirates and being given a hefty jail sentence and/or enormous fine.


Don't forget the "For Your Consideration" copies out there aswell. Plenty of Academy members or members of the film press out there more than willing to share their copy with the rest of the internet.


...hence me using the term "screeners"...

[;)]


Ah ok. I usually associate "screeners" with the 'in the cinema with a video camera' type of torrent which I tend to avoid.




great_badir -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 1:54:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Spaldron
Ah ok. I usually associate "screeners" with the 'in the cinema with a video camera' type of torrent which I tend to avoid.


That's okay - "bums inhaling vomit" gives you an out.


(Off but on topic, I haven't seen one of those filmed-with-a-vid-camera pirates for about 15 years - are they extinct now???)




Nexus Wookie -> RE: is piracy REALLY killing the film industry? (28/5/2012 2:02:23 PM)

I'll be honest, in my time I have watched pirate films. But nearly 99% of the films i've watched, I have gone on to purchase the original copies. Solely because of the extra's, and commentaries which enrich my viewing experience. I've stopped watching pirated films for a good number of years now, becuase some of the stuff is very bad, and its hard to decipher whats being said, and it ruins the experience. However, there have been times which I have watched near faultless copies of pirate films. I remember watching A History of Violence, and the copy looked as clean as an official DVD transfer. So my question is how the heck do people manage to obtain copies of films like these or is it simply leaked from someone inside the studio's?[8|]




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