2012 Box Office Estimates (Full Version)

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jackcarter -> 2012 Box Office Estimates (9/8/2011 1:15:02 PM)

notice the 2012 preview didnt have any Box Office estimates ( its been a few years since empire did them)so heres a selection

(US/overall worldwide) :


Hobbit - 450m/1.3b - got to be at least as big as last Potter. could even be the next $2b hit

TDKR - 500m/950m - going to risk saying not quite as big as TDK

Spiderman - 300m/800m - unnecessary reboot but its still spiderman, theyve always been around the 800m-1b mark and its been a while since 3 now.

Avengers - 350m/750m - the allure of several superheroes in basically Iron Man 3 will make it bigger than either IMs, but cant see it touching TDKR

Bond - 200m/650m - should be abit bigger than last 2 due to long wait plus the 50th ann

Promethues- 220m/450m - if its rated PG13, may be abit lower if rated R? or even more? (will probably be 15 in UK if PG13 in US...or 15/18 if R rated). Might be even bigger as great trailer and, like Cameron, Scott doing SF again will be a big draw, plus cosmology/mysterious 'wonders of the universe' type stuff is getting quite popular now which this seems to be going for in addition to being an Alien prequel.

MiB 3D - 200m/450m - audiences might not be that bothered about this, could be lower like 300m

Titans 2 - 120m/420m - audiences might be abit jaded by Titans after last one, but should still be biggish as what else is out end of march?

GI Joe 2 - 150m/320m - Willis and Rock could make this F&F bigger like 500m

Battleship - 150m/300m - Transformers at sea with Rhianna could make this even bigger..or could be first casualty of the summer

Snow White - 120m/300m - a dark realistic fairy tale hasnt really been done on this scale before but Mirror Mirror may prevent this from being bigger

Expendables 2 - 100m/300m - JCVD, Norris plus bigger parts for Arnie and Willis should make this bigger than 1st but the novelty of an Avengers style action hero movie may have worn off now (plus the first wasnt that great) - maybe the PG13 rating will backfire too?

John Carter - 100m/250m - might be Cowboys & Aliens 2 - cant see this being huge but could be very wrong as little competition in march (like Avatar wrong)

Gatsby - 100m/200m - Australia numbers methinks. although maybe itd be another Titanic?

Looper - 100m/200m - potential sleeper and could do ALOT more if its as good/clever as Inception

Total Recall - 80m/150m - 80s SF remakes took a beating this year (Conan, Fright Night, Thing) - i see no reason for this to do big numbers.

Mirror Mirror - 70m/150m - could it be the big flop of the year?

GhostRider 2 - 60m/150m - 1st one wasnt liked much, no reason for this to equal its respectable BO - even if its alot better

WWZ - 50m/120m - doubt this will do much more..why go to the movies when you can see it on tv?. think everyones zombied out now anyway. theyve have had a good 10 year run.

Titanic 3D - 50m/100m - might do even more due to the 100th anniversary

Dredd - 40m/80m - cant see audiences going for this much

SW Ep I 3D - 20m/40m - maybe not even that much. does anyone really want to see Jar Jar in 3D? wouldve been better off starting with the originals or Ep III




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (9/8/2011 1:32:59 PM)


(US/overall worldwide) :

Hobbit - 400m/1.5b
Batman 3 - 410m/1.3b
Spiderman - 150m/450m
Avengers - 270m/700m
Bond - 200m/800m
MiB 3D - 120m/300m
Titans 2 - 120m/350m
Alien prequel - 150m/400m
John Carter - 100m/300m
Expendables 2 - 150m/500m
Total Recall - 60m/100m
Battleship - 140m/400m
Looper - 80m/140m
GhostRider 2 - 40m/80m
Dredd - 30m/70m
Snow White and the Huntsman - 115m/320m
Mirror Mirror - 45m/90m




directorscut -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 12:46:11 AM)

Batman will win US. The Hobbit worldwide.




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 12:49:38 AM)

Are we allowed to revise our predictions? I say this having now seen trailers for most of these movies. 




jackcarter -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 12:08:47 PM)

lets do it




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 1:36:48 PM)

Done!




Cool Breeze -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 3:03:20 PM)

The Dark Knight Rises will be the biggest hit of the year.May even surpass Avatar as the biggest film of all time.




directorscut -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 3:30:49 PM)

Not a chance.




Biggus -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 9:44:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: directorscut

Not a chance.


Seconded. It's a big leap from The Dark Knight to Avatar. It might top TDK but it won't come near Cameron's smurf odyssey. The Hobbit will top the charts although much of its gross will carry into 2013. I think The Expendables 2 will far outgross its predecessor and John Carter will do nowhere near the business predicted. Skyfall will be the most successful Bond to date.




Cool Breeze -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 10:23:11 PM)

Ok then.The Dark Knight Rises for the biggest opening weekend of all time?

I also agree that Expendables 2 will far outgross its predecessor.




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 10:27:10 PM)

Whoever wins...Warners win. 




directorscut -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (27/12/2011 11:14:13 PM)

Adjusted for inflation TDK's opening weekend is $175 million, $6 million ahead of Harry Potter.

I don't think TDKR will equal that because a) the trailers for TDK were far better than the ones for TDKR and b) The Joker is a far more popular villain than Bane. I'm willing to bet most of the general audience don't even know who Bane is.

Also Batman Begins left me wanting to see the sequel right there and then, whereas TDK left me thinking, "Eh, alright."




jackcarter -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (30/12/2011 2:26:50 PM)

think TDKR will have the biggest opening wkend of the year...and probably of all time




Timon -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (30/12/2011 2:56:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

think TDKR will have the biggest opening wkend of the year...and probably of all time


Nah. It'll do well, but I'd be surprised if it beat TDK and Harry Potter's numbers. This year there is a lot of competition, so I expect records to be shattered every other week in terms of "Best opening Wednesday" and that ilk.




Ref -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (30/12/2011 3:51:26 PM)

I think we can all agree that it will be between The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit.

I'd say that TDKR will outperform TH in the US, but not worldwide.




JIm R -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (30/12/2011 9:25:39 PM)

TDKR will do 'big' but it won't pass TDK in my view. $850-900m worldwide I reckon.




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (30/12/2011 10:00:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JIm R

TDKR will do 'big' but it won't pass TDK in my view. $850-900m worldwide I reckon.


If Transformers 3 and Pirates 4 can do over a billion, I see no reason why Batman 3, coming off a hugely popular movie, can't either.




jackcarter -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (31/12/2011 4:19:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

quote:

ORIGINAL: JIm R

TDKR will do 'big' but it won't pass TDK in my view. $850-900m worldwide I reckon.


If Transformers 3 and Pirates 4 can do over a billion, I see no reason why Batman 3, coming off a hugely popular movie, can't either.



yeah thats a good point. but still going to go slightly short of 1b just to be able to say i told you so should it happen[:)]




Dirk Miggler -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (31/12/2011 4:52:10 PM)

People put a lot of TDK gross down to Ledger and the affect of his death, while I agree it had an impact I dont think it was as big as the fanbase that grew massively from BB on DVD.

That fanbase will have grown further still from the DK, which is one of the biggest selling DVD's of all time.

I think TDKR could reach Titanic IMHO.





Spaldron -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (31/12/2011 5:46:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

quote:

ORIGINAL: JIm R

TDKR will do 'big' but it won't pass TDK in my view. $850-900m worldwide I reckon.


If Transformers 3 and Pirates 4 can do over a billion, I see no reason why Batman 3, coming off a hugely popular movie, can't either.



yeah thats a good point. but still going to go slightly short of 1b just to be able to say i told you so should it happen[:)]



TDKR is being shown on all these new IMAX Digital screens being rolled out across the country (and the rest of the world tbh) which will seriously up its box office considering the tickets are over £12, much in the same way Avatar made so much cash off of the new 3D fad with its overpriced tickets. I reckon it'll easily pass 1billion.




jackcarter -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (1/1/2012 3:09:03 PM)

What about Prometheus BO? Part of me thinks itíll do solid batman/star trek/terminator 4 prequel style business (around 400m ww) then I think if Avatar can do nearly $3b then surely a R Scott 3D SF epic can manage at least $800m-1b. but then I start to think the horror/Alien element might put people off who arent fans of the genre and it will only do about 250-300m ww which is roughly what the top grossing Alien films made when adjusted (esp if they give it the R rating which I hope they do) and whatever rating will no doubt impact the BO. likely more $ if PG13 than R rated..but then the prospect of a dark horror SF might not be all that appealing to kids and their parents and they dont bother so much and the PG13 turns off the fans who were hoping for R/18 who wait for unrated blu ray, so PG13 could actually do less?

be interesting to see how that one does more so than any of the rest imo




UTB -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (1/1/2012 3:37:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

What about Prometheus BO? Part of me thinks itíll do solid batman/star trek/terminator 4 prequel style business (around 400m ww) then I think if Avatar can do nearly $3b then surely a R Scott 3D SF epic can manage at least $800m-1b



I think you are overestimating the box office pull of Scott, and an Alien film with what currently appears to lack xenomorphs. I reckon it'll be half of that.




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (1/1/2012 3:39:50 PM)

Prometheus could do Inception bussiness - grown up sci-fi, if it plays its cards right. Really hard one to call.




Macavity -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 2:51:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: UTB

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

What about Prometheus BO? Part of me thinks it'll do solid batman/star trek/terminator 4 prequel style business (around 400m ww) then I think if Avatar can do nearly $3b then surely a R Scott 3D SF epic can manage at least $800m-1b



I think you are overestimating the box office pull of Scott, and an Alien film with what currently appears to lack xenomorphs. I reckon it'll be half of that.


The lack of xenomorphs is in it's favour. They've been tainted. Modern audiences associate them with brainless trash. Sad but true.




mclane1 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 5:38:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Macavity

quote:

ORIGINAL: UTB

quote:

ORIGINAL: jackcarter

What about Prometheus BO? Part of me thinks it'll do solid batman/star trek/terminator 4 prequel style business (around 400m ww) then I think if Avatar can do nearly $3b then surely a R Scott 3D SF epic can manage at least $800m-1b



I think you are overestimating the box office pull of Scott, and an Alien film with what currently appears to lack xenomorphs. I reckon it'll be half of that.


The lack of xenomorphs is in it's favour. They've been tainted. Modern audiences associate them with†brainless trash. Sad but true.

quote:

xenomorphs



ha ha thats just funny ' lack of xenomorphs are in its favout' it will be the lack of them that turns people off you crazy man and thus it will nowhere near reach the box office suggested earlier- now ridley, and actual aliens, would have been a slam dunk!




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 5:38:56 PM)

Because the last two movies to feature the Alien have been amazing box office successes?




mclane1 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 5:43:13 PM)

got a funny feeling about the hobbit, just doesnt sit right- trailer looks tepid at best, production problems- may be a suprise turkey?

I agree TDK had some heath death interest which helped box office.


although i still cant get over the comment that not having aliens in a alien prequel movie is a GOOD thing and more people will see it, funniest thing ive heard in a long time, comedy gold





mclane1 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 5:46:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

Because the last two movies to feature the Alien have been amazing box office successes?



yeah but it wasnt the aliens that let them down, take them away and they probably would have not got a screening at all. we are talking box office, alot people dont like sci fi without aliens- eg. solaris, sunshine, event horizon etc.. i do quite like them but we are talking the mases.




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 5:47:17 PM)

It isn't an Alien prequel. And the last two/three films which have featured the Alien have not done that well at all. 




Rgirvan44 -> RE: 2012 Box Office Estimates (2/1/2012 5:47:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mclane1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

Because the last two movies to feature the Alien have been amazing box office successes?



yeah but it wasnt the aliens that let them down, take them away and they probably would have not got a screening at all. we are talking box office, alot people dont like sci fi without aliens- eg. solaris, sunshine, event horizon etc.. i do quite like them but we are talking the mases.


There will be aliens in it...just not the Alien.




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