Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (Full Version)

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Rgirvan44 -> Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 1:51:18 PM)

Thought I would start a discussion following the decsion by Univerisal not to invest 150 million in At The Mountains of Madness. This has kick started a discussion about the future of the studios, and the products which they are producing. Part of this debate on the interwebs has been the slate of movies coming out in 2012. So far we can expect -

Jan 20 - Underworld: New Dawn
Feb 10 - Phantom Menace 3D
Feb 17- Ghost Rider 2
March 2 - Dr. Seuss' The Lorax
March 9 - John Carter of Mars
March 16 - 21 Jump Street Remake
March 23 - Wrath of the Titans
March 30 - The Croods

Then we have a break (so far) then...

May 4 - The Avengers
May 18 - Battleship
May 25 - Men in Black 3
June 1 - Knocked Up Spin Off (Waa??)
June 8 - Madagascar 3
June 8 - Prometheus
June 15 - Brave
June 29 - Star Trek 2
July 3 - The Amazing Spiderman
July 13 - Ice Age 4
July 20 - The Dark Knight Rises
August 3 - The Bourne Legacy
August 3 - Total Recall
August 10 - G.I Joe 2


Then another break...and

Nov 2 - Monsters, Inc 2
Nov  9 - Bond 23
Nov 9- Oujia
Nov 16 - Twilight
Nov 21 - 47 Ronin

And this isn't including the following -

The Hobbit
Superman reboot
The Wolverine
Elysium
Gravity
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Dark Shadows
Frankenwinnee

And this doesn't include things which are still to be annonced/under the radar etc

Basically it feels like something has to give here - and the amount of investment being made (I understand Battleship is costing 200 million +) there is a real chance that some studios are going to get hit hard.

Could we see a repeat of the late 60s where the costs of movie making vs the returns hit a peak and caused the system to collapse upon itself? Heck something like the Avengers alone not only affects one picture, but five seperate franchices (at least) - it feels like 2012 will be a year we will look back on as a turning point.

What are your thoughts?




Darth Marenghi -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 2:44:53 PM)

That there's almost nothing on there I can see that's even remotely original is staggering. The sad thing is that the audience is probably inured to watching only sequels and film adaptations of established hits, so most of these things will turn a profit. You'd need a Carolco style collapse to happen to a studio for the system to be in any real danger, and I really don't see that happening.




shool -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 3:04:35 PM)

 
I'm looking forward to these. Although I'll probably only see about half at the Cinema.

March 23 - Wrath of the Titans
May 4 - The Avengers
May 18 - Battleship
June 8 - Prometheus
June 29 - Star Trek 2
July 3 - The Amazing Spiderman
July 20 - The Dark Knight Rises
August 3 - The Bourne Legacy
August 3 - Total Recall
Nov 9 - Bond 23
The Hobbit
Superman reboot
Elysium
Gravity

I think they will all make their money back as people turn to the cinema as a cheaper alternative form of entertainment than a night out on the town or a restaurant.





Rgirvan44 -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 3:10:28 PM)

It isn't so much what people are excited to see-  it is that we are in a tight economic situation, cinema prices are going up and people will not be able to afford to go to the movies week in, week out. I cannot see all these movies making a profit. There is a new alien movie out three weeks in a row over the end of June/start of July. Will The Wolverine be shifted aside due to the Dark Knight Rises and Spiderman? If Battleship bombs that will be a massive hit on Univerisal who haven't had the greatest sucess recently.




shool -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 3:59:01 PM)

Fair comment. But I still feel a trip to the cinema is a cheaper option than a night out on the town or a meal in a restaurant.
It may even be a more popular choice for entertainment given the economic crisis. And arent cinema attendances on the rise? I'm sure I hear that somewhere, but equally I could have made it up.




Deviation -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 4:15:12 PM)

I've read somewhere that they have lowered. 




Rgirvan44 -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 4:19:10 PM)

With 52 weeks in the year, there are at least 35 big pictures being released. That is a huge number.




shool -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 4:23:07 PM)

Is that alot more than usual? And by big are we talking budgets of the films themselves or just anticipation from audience?




Rgirvan44 -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 4:29:25 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: shool

Is that alot more than usual? And by big are we talking budgets of the films themselves or just anticipation from audience?


I think it is both the size of the movies, and audience antcipation.We see the end of the Marvel experiment, the last Nolan Batman flick and the Spiderman reboot.

That would be more than enough for any summer. But then we are also getting Superman and Wolverine. Five superhero movies - and they are ALL the big hitters. Don't think that has happened before.

Then we have at least four movies with aliens in them.

Then we have five summer animated movies.

It goes on and on. I am not complaining about it - it just feels like some of these movies would be THE blockbuster of any other given year, and now they are all clashing with each other. 2012 feels like a epicentre of something that has been building for a few years now.




Darth Marenghi -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 6:39:31 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

It goes on and on. I am not complaining about it - it just feels like some of these movies would be THE blockbuster of any other given year, and now they are all clashing with each other. 2012 feels like a epicentre of something that has been building for a few years now.


That's probably true but I don't think the repercussions will be felt yet. To be honest a few of these things failing would be a good thing, you might see a 70s style revival of cinema.




Scruffybobby -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 9:00:49 PM)

Out of all of those there's only about 6 or 7 that I could say now that I want to see. The rest I either have no interest in or am waiting to see trailers get a bit of buzz before I decide if I want to see them.

Those I do want to see are

Prometheus
Star Trek 2
Brave
The Dark Knight Rises
Monsters Inc 2
Bond 23
The Hobbit

and of those the only ones I would say (at this point) are essential are Bond, Dark Knight, The Hobbit and Trek. Not really a lot for the year is it?








adambatman82 -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (8/3/2011 9:30:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: shool

And arent cinema attendances on the rise? I'm sure I hear that somewhere, but equally I could have made it up.


They were down 5% last year, although the 3D subsidy means that more money was made.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-12093041

Cinemas did boom during the great depression, as a cheap form of entertainment, but that was before television entered the fray. Forking out £7.50 per person before snacks doesn't seem like a very cheap night out these days.




Gazdance -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (9/3/2011 11:54:13 AM)

I feel that cinema, certainly 'Hollywood' cinema has been going this way for a while. Certainly the release patterns for films now seem to be a lot more densely packed that ever before. As you rightly say, in years gone by, many of these titles would be THE blockbuster of that year. Now they all compete withi weeks of eachother.

I don't remember it being as such in say the 90s or even the early 2000s. And I'm sure it's not simply down to the fact that my interests are broader and therefore I want to see more.

It does seem that there is lots of money being pumped into anticipated tentpole releases and I think that only a few will really succeed. Big brands with existing fanbases (Spiderman, Bond, Superman, Star Trek) will pull in the punters. Something like The Avengers will sink or swim internationally based on reviews and how well people enjoy Thor and Captain America. If those movies suck, i can't see people being that arsed about The Avengers. I think Marvel are already messing with their films to much by trying to have an interwoven cinematic universe. Iron Man 2's biggest weakness was all the set up for this years (and future) Marvel projects. I'm reasonably 'in the know' but I felt that the Shield/Nick Fury scenes were poor and made little sense in the narractive of the actual movie. Imagine how lost a casual cinema goer must have been.

That said, I'm more excited about 2012 as a year for blockbusters than I have been for many years now.




Rhubarb -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (9/3/2011 12:17:02 PM)

I guess with apparently more money to win than ever before (who realistically would have thought Avatar would knock on the door of two billion? A few years ago there was a thread on here where everyone shrugged and assumed Titanic's BO record would never be topped) its sort of natural that the studios take abnormal risks with the material. They know that if something they make is a really big hit, they can bang on the door of a Billion dollars WW. It doesn't seem that long ago that if something took $200m at the US BO it was considered a big hit. In this scenario its also natural that some companies are going to take a huge hit. But everything will calm down again after a few flops and we'll probably have a period of low budget filmaking before epics come back "in".

The Avengers is quite clearly crazy, but you can see what they're after. Clearly the thinking is that if they've got a film with 47 Superheroes in it, they've got a huge audience and it can be a monster hit. And if they can arse around making 47 films in the run up which all turn good profit, they're well on to a winner. But it might not turn out that way, just with how loooong it takes to make these films. I wouldn't be that shocked if it didn't do that well next year. At least not as well at Batman, which is probably as close to a cert as you can get (though it probably won't hit the same zeitgeist TDK tapped into).

Elsewhere Superman has to be a worry, just in terms of the Superheroes out there, there probably isn't one that feels less irrelevant today. No doubt everyone will assume cos Nolan's on board he can make it relevant, but he's got his work cut out for him (as has Snyder) to reinvent Superman in the same way as Batman.

I think Girv is right that Battleship sounds like utter, utter madness and if it does go tits up next year might be looked at as the shining example of why. Does the world need a Men in Black 3? Can Wolverine possibly irradicate the horrendous memory of the last one? It'll be interesting to see at any rate.




Darth Marenghi -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (9/3/2011 1:35:30 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rhubarb
Can Wolverine possibly irradicate the horrendous memory of the last one? It'll be interesting to see at any rate.


The script is supposed to be really good and it's based on the Chris Claremont/Frank Miller comics so it's got a fighting chance, I'd say.





Rhubarb -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (9/3/2011 3:36:59 PM)

Perhaps, and I'll inevitably go and see it anyway, but I don't think that means its a guarenteed success, unless it gets really good buzz.




fuzzy -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (9/3/2011 4:27:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

quote:

ORIGINAL: shool

Is that alot more than usual? And by big are we talking budgets of the films themselves or just anticipation from audience?



It goes on and on. I am not complaining about it - it just feels like some of these movies would be THE blockbuster of any other given year, and now they are all clashing with each other. 2012 feels like a epicentre of something that has been building for a few years now.


They're all trying to cash their cheques before the inevitable apocalypse [;)]
.




vad3r -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (9/3/2011 10:39:24 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Darth Marenghi

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rhubarb
Can Wolverine possibly irradicate the horrendous memory of the last one? It'll be interesting to see at any rate.


The script is supposed to be really good and it's based on the Chris Claremont/Frank Miller comics so it's got a fighting chance, I'd say.




It's also being directed by Darren Aronofsky. Who doesn't know how to make bad films.




Sad Professor -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (14/3/2011 5:52:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

Could we see a repeat of the late 60s where the costs of movie making vs the returns hit a peak and caused the system to collapse upon itself? 


Will this give us another era simlar to Easy Riders, Raging Bulls? If so then yes I hope the system breaks. 

The current model of overproduction of low quality products (in this case unoriginal clichéd films aimed at the lowest common denominator) to accrue more profit is nuts. There was a guy talking about the unsustainability of this system a few hundred years ago,  fat guy with a beard....

I agree with your sense that something's gotta give. This is supposedly the age of austerity.




juanvasquez -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (14/3/2011 9:42:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sad Professor

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rgirvan44

Could we see a repeat of the late 60s where the costs of movie making vs the returns hit a peak and caused the system to collapse upon itself? 


Will this give us another era simlar to Easy Riders, Raging Bulls? If so then yes I hope the system breaks. 

The current model of overproduction of low quality products (in this case unoriginal clichéd films aimed at the lowest common denominator) to accrue more profit is nuts. There was a guy talking about the unsustainability of this system a few hundred years ago,  fat guy with a beard....

I agree with your sense that something's gotta give. This is supposedly the age of austerity.



Brian Blessed?




Rhubarb -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (14/3/2011 9:52:22 PM)

I believe by law you have to refer to him as BRIAN BLESSED




great_badir -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (17/3/2011 2:00:42 PM)

I'm sure the studios will probably do fine, regardless, as they always seem to.  But bringing it down to a more local level, I both fear and hope that audience figures, certainly UK audiences figures, will start to reduce over the next year or two.  With the average price of a single cinema ticket outside of London now approaching a ridiculous £8 (ignoring Cineworld membership, Orange Wednesdays etc), I can't help but feel we are once again approaching what happened in the mid to late 80s when cinema audiences really started to dwindle, mainly because of price.  In the early 90s the multiplexes started popping up and were charging less than the still existing fleapits and independents - for example, at the end of its life in the early 90s, my local fleapit was charging between £3 and £4 per ticket, whilst the newly opened Showcase just down the road was between £2 and £2.50, plus the screen was bigger and the seats were more comfortable.  But it seems to me that the 'plexes are now having their cake and eating it and with very little high street competition plus home entertainment now being so (relatively) cheap and easy to access, I can only imagine that most people will neglect the ol' picture house.

I realise that's drifted away from the initial topic somewhat, but I wonder if that same issue will then go further up the chain and start to harm the studios.  What's the situation with ticket costs in the US at the moment, anyone know?




Rgirvan44 -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (6/6/2011 2:24:43 PM)

Thought that I would give this thread a bump. 2011 isn't exactly going to be a vintage year - but even something like Pirates, which has got trashed an awful lot, has made more than 700 million WW.

Maybe all these HUGE movies can survive. But if I was a betting man - Battleship is screwed.




Ghidorah -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (6/6/2011 7:15:39 PM)

To be honest it doesn't look too bad and will encourage Hollywood to release their big films sooner on the home format if things doesn't go so well.




RobotDevil -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (6/6/2011 10:13:47 PM)

It seems that at least twice a year (normally in the New Year cultural preview, and around summertime) that newspapers and magazines preview all the years releases and realise that the cinemas are dominated by sequels and reboots and franchises.

The flaw in the argument is always the same - the only films with confirmed release dates are the big blockbusters and so no other films get mentioned. You don't have to do much investigation to work out that there are loads of other films coming out and if you want quality films that are original, they are out there, you just have to know where to look.





Spaldron -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (7/6/2011 4:12:31 AM)

The Hobbit will probably make or break next year. If it doesn't manage at least $1bn then its the end of 3D as we know it, and probably a kick up the arse for Hollywood.




Gkel -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (11/6/2011 8:06:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Darth Marenghi

That there's almost nothing on there I can see that's even remotely original is staggering. The sad thing is that the audience is probably inured to watching only sequels and film adaptations of established hits, so most of these things will turn a profit.


***yeah I dont think current audiences care that much--not unless something comes out of left field and does really really well--but in the old days studios were run as companies--now they are part of corporate media empires which have many business channels. I am not sure that even a big success for some unusual film would spark much of a change at the studios. Fox's answer to sequel/remake/prequel overkill is to change the setting(1960s for Xmen) or get Ridley Scott to do an Alien film.

Unless it was possible to cut costs down dramatically and yet maintain a high level of technical quality and not seem like everything was shot in front of a greenscreen.

The lack of interest in original screenplay stories is just remarkable-but the same has happened with books--has to be part of a 12 volume epic otherwise not much interest.
In the old days a single best selling novel by the likes of  Ira Levin was enough to be made into a movie without any sequel or prequel potential. Not like that anymore.






Pop Peelings -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (11/6/2011 10:28:57 PM)

Nah, Hollywood has been putting shit out for years and the box office takings are through the roof.

2012 looks grim but then 2011 has been shit so far as well.

Expect reboots of reboots for all eternity.




Jacks Rage -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (13/6/2011 6:19:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gkel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Darth Marenghi

That there's almost nothing on there I can see that's even remotely original is staggering. The sad thing is that the audience is probably inured to watching only sequels and film adaptations of established hits, so most of these things will turn a profit.


***yeah I dont think current audiences care that much--not unless something comes out of left field and does really really well--but in the old days studios were run as companies--now they are part of corporate media empires which have many business channels. I am not sure that even a big success for some unusual film would spark much of a change at the studios. Fox's answer to sequel/remake/prequel overkill is to change the setting(1960s for Xmen) or get Ridley Scott to do an Alien film.

Unless it was possible to cut costs down dramatically and yet maintain a high level of technical quality and not seem like everything was shot in front of a greenscreen.

The lack of interest in original screenplay stories is just remarkable-but the same has happened with books--has to be part of a 12 volume epic otherwise not much interest.
In the old days a single best selling novel by the likes of  Ira Levin was enough to be made into a movie without any sequel or prequel potential. Not like that anymore.





Absolutely. Look at Inception. Nolan had been trying to get it made for a while and only after the gigantic success of The Dark Knight did Warner Bros give him the ok. Then even after it became a huge hit they and other studios treated it as an exception.




Cytheria -> RE: Will 2012 Make or Break the Studios? (14/6/2011 4:39:07 AM)

Every movie now is using some stupid gimmick of 3D, which is just plain annoying, and also a ton of special effects. Crappy plot and stories. Look to independent cinema for the future of films. Rolex Replica Replica Watches Rolex Replica Watches Replica Handbag




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