Why It Will Win			Why It Won't Win
1	It has the more nominations than any other film of the year, including Director, Screenplay, Editing and three acting nods, and it’s the highest-grossing nominee.		1	Spielberg only wins Best Picture when he gives the voters no reasonable alternative: he’s only won once, and that was for Schindler’s List. Even Saving Private Ryan only nabbed him Best Director – and never forget: his adaptation of The Color Purple took 13 nominations and zero Oscars.
2	It provides a credible and compelling look at America’s secular saint, Abraham Lincoln, from a respected director who is mates with most of Hollywood.		2	It’s possible that the acting block may be inclined towards Silver Linings Playbook, which picked up a lot of nominations on a much smaller platform, while producers and directors seem to feel a groundswell of support for Argo.
3	This may sound weird, but we reckon the fact that a President from Illinois won re-election, and then delivered a barnstorming second inaugural that left America feeling optimistic, may boost its chances. The parallels feel sort of overwhelming.		3	Those political parallels might hurt its chances if they’re shouted too loudly.